Every week, things get a little more serious in survivor pools. If you’re still alive, you basically have one of two decisions. The first is if you still have the Lions, do you play the massive favorite with a narrow path to defeat, or do you lean into game theory? If you don’t have the Lions, which not-exactly-reliable team do you pull the trigger on?
Lions vs. Jaguars
Spread: Lions -13
Total: 47
Ownership: 47%
If Trevor Lawrence was playing, the Lions would be around an 8.5-point favorite and their ownership projection wouldn’t be quite this high. Since Mac Jones is Jacksonville’s starter, just about everyone that still has Detroit is going to play them.
From a pure football standpoint, a lot is going to have to go wrong for Detroit to lose to the Jones-led Jaguars. If you have Detroit and you’re not going to play them, that decision is primarily driven by game theory. For me, I’m comfortable playing Detroit against Jones and similar to the 49ers against the Patriots earlier in the year, I don’t care that Detroit is extremely popular.
Future value-wise, the Colts haven’t impressed me all year, but they have a better shot of knocking off the Lions at home than Jones does on the road. The Bears look broken right now, but I’ve been mentioning all year that Chicago beat up the Lions last year. I’d still prefer to avoid that matchup.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 12 at IND, Week 13 vs. CHI
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