Evan Silva’s Matchups: Buccaneers at Giants

Tampa Bay @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Buccaneers 24, Giants 18

Baker Mayfield spiked a top-seven finish in six out of seven games before losing both Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle) in Week 7, finishing as the QB8, QB16, and QB24 over his last three starts. New York creates pressure on 35.1% of dropbacks (fifth), but Mayfield remains third in completion rate (61.5%) under duress. Evans’ return elevates Baker’s QB1 floor. I bet the Bucs to catch the Falcons and win the NFC South at +350. … Bucky Irving out-carried Rachaad White in each of their last three games in unfavorable (and losing) game scripts. With the Bucs favored by six points on the road, Irving — 0.31 missed tackles forced per attempt (third), 5.1 yards per carry (fifth), and a 7.3% explosive run rate (eighth) — has 100 yards and multiple touchdowns in his range of outcomes against a Giants unit being road-grated for a league-high 5.2 YPC. OC Liam Coen additionally noted the team needs to “make sure we leave each week saying…[Sean Tucker]’s touched the ball a few times”, but that perceived uptick is not expected to limit either Bucky’s or White’s ceiling. The latter is an RB2/3 (behind Irving) for his 14.2% target share (to Bucky’s 10.3%) for 20/164/4 receiving since returning from injury.