I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a unique slate because we had three very low-priced feature backs: Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen, and Zach Charbonnet. We also had Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara in unreal spots. And we got surprising late news that George Pickens (hamstring) was scratched.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* We’ve seen what happens when Kenneth Walker is inactive: Zach Charbonnet becomes a true three-down plus goal-line workhorse. That would’ve been enough to play him at $4800, but the fact that he already had a strong pass-down role (even when Walker is healthy) made it a stone-cold lock. Especially against an Arizona defense which has been better lately, but still came in as the 6th-best RB matchup per our DvP data.
* Both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are done. That left Isaac Guerendo as the unquestioned feature back against a run-funneling Bears defense. Guerendo is also a size/speed freak, the 49ers have shown trust in him already this season, and he plays well in the pass game (39 catches in final 26 college games). Kyle Shanahan’s scheme is extremely RB-friendly, and has been for years.
I easily preferred Guerendo to Braelon Allen, even for $400 more. The Jets were on the road as a sizable underdog, Isaiah Davis was a threat to mix in, and the Jets have underperformed their expectation all season.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I looked at some lineups with Will Levis at quarterback. But once we got all the running back value, that became unnecessary. Although the matchup for Levis was ideal, he’s a bad NFL quarterback in a game with the lowest total on the slate.
So once I decided Levis was out, the play clearly became Sam Darnold. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen were too expensive relative to projection, and Darnold had an ideal matchup at home against a Falcons defense graded as our 7th-best matchup for QBs. Unlike Baker Mayfield, Darnold had all his weapons healthy and playing well (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson).
* As noted above, I had concerns on both Braelon Allen’s role and the floor on the Jets offense. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara’s outrageous run/pass role was amplified by Taysom Hill being out and a matchup against a terrible and severely injury Giants defense. At the same or close price, I easily would’ve played Saquon Barkley over Kamara (see my FanDuel team). On full-PPR DraftKings, Kamara’s floor/ceiling combo was extremely strong for $1000 less than Barkley.
* I would never call an expensive tight end a “must.” As I discussed on last week’s always free Solo Pod, tight end floor/ceiling combos are often not what they appear. But Brock Bowers is effectively an alpha wide receiver facing one of the best pass-game matchups (TB) at $6500. I didn’t love paying that much at the position, but we had so much room to spend on this slate I thought it was fine.
* Jauan Jennings has easily emerged as the 49ers No. 1 wide receiver. Yet he was priced at $5200. Regardless of matchup or offensive line play, the alpha WR for a Kyle Shanahan offense at this price is going to be a play. The only reason Jennings wasn’t a “must” was because the mid-range was littered with strong options (see below).
* I was all set to play Jerry Jeudy and Jakobi Meyers at the other two wide receiver spots on my DK team. But then George Pickens (hamstring) was scratched late. My first thought when this happened was it could give me access to one of my favorite plays on the slate, Justin Jefferson.
So after I got off Last Minute Livestream, I had to quickly look at a 3v3 of Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers, and Jaguars D/ST vs. Justin Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and Saints D/ST. We had it almost even in projection. I did not have a strong feeling either way. I decided to go with the Jefferson side for four reasons.
First, I thought the Falcons’ inability to generate pressure would lead to a big Sam Darnold game. He is very pressure sensitive. Second, I knew I had Jeudy and Jakobi in cash on FanDuel (see team above), leaving me with a natural hedge across sites. Third, I thought Saints D/ST was significantly better than Jaguars D/ST. And finally, I was mostly playing head-to-heads – stacking Darnold and Jefferson would lead to more outcomes where I sweep the board. Unlike Double Ups or 50/50s, having a 95% percentile lineup in head-to-heads means a ton.
Week 14 Results
In hindsight, playing Calvin Austin on this loose of a slate was probably sub-optimal. I got bailed out by the monster Justin Jefferson eruption. Then again, that was the thesis and I’m glad I went with my conviction on Jefferson. I was also happy with the mindset to have Braelon Allen clearly behind Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo. That one paid off in a big way. Despite the Brock Bowers dud, this was my best week of the season when combining both sites.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 93.14 points, won 28.2% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 173.16 points, won 96.3% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 170.86 points, won 65.2% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 117.92 points, won 66.1% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 133.00 points, won 81.5% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 145.08 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 116.88 points, won 10.5% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 201.38 points, won 93.1% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 100.04 points, won 65.0% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 122.36 points, won 70.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 132.1 points, won 52.0% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 108.82 ponts, won 60.9% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 112.58 points, won 29.0% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 120.56 points, won 47.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 136.2 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 186.08 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
