Dynasty Outlook
March 25
Caleb Williams is our top overall player for rookie drafts and checks in as QB8 in our overall dynasty ranks. He would be a first-round startup pick if drafting today with rookies included. Williams can obviously become an upper-tier player with his passing, but it is also worth noting that his rushing ability is strong as well — not to the elite levels like a Lamar Jackson, but definitely in that second group of players who can consistently add value with their legs. That will certainly help him to get going fantasy-wise. The fact that the Bears (presumably the team drafting him) are already setting up a strong infrastructure around him bodes well for his future.
Profile Summary
Williams is one of the most dynamic and exciting QB prospects we have seen in a long time. His ability to consistently make plays out of structure gives Patrick Mahomes vibes, and it is partially why the league is so high on him. But even without those comparisons, he has been one of the most productive passers this era, and he has done it since his true freshman year. NFL teams will want to see Williams take less sacks and incur less turnover-worthy plays, but there is some evidence that those mistakes may be the result of playing with a subpar defense and behind a weak offensive line.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.1
Experience — 3 years
Height — 73.125 inches
Weight — 214 pounds
Hand — 9.75 inches
Arm — 32.0 inches
By the Numbers
Williams is one of the most highly-touted QB prospects we have seen in the past decade. He has been starting since he was a true freshman, first at Oklahoma, then traveling to USC along with head coach Lincoln Riley. Per pass, Williams has had a remarkably consistent career:
2021 — 9.1 YPA, 10.2 AYA, 169.6 rating
2022 — 9.1 YPA, 10.3 AYA, 168.5 rating
2023 — 9.4 YPA, 10.3 AYA, 170.1 rating
Here is a list of all first-round three-year QBs to attempt at least 800 passes since 2005:
Drake Maye (presumably)
Bryce Young
C.J. Stroud
Trevor Lawrence
Zach Wilson
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Blaine Gabbert
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
The only other QB on this list with a career AYA over 10 is Stroud, who already looked the part of an elite player as a rookie.
If there is a “flaw” in Williams’ game, it is likely that he takes a ton of sacks. His career pressure-to-sack rate is 23.2%. Here are the other first-round QB prospects over 20% since 2015:
Zach Wilson — 22%
Trey Lance — 20%
Justin Fields — 23.6%
Joe Burrow — 22.2%
Baker Mayfield — 20.3%
Lamar Jackson — 20.4%
Marcus Mariota — 20%
It is notable that Williams has the second-highest P2S% of all of these QBs to Fields. Of course, it is also notable that someone like Burrow can take a lot of sacks and still end up being a great player. There is also some decent context to Caleb’s risk-taking:
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Williams to Kyler Murray:
Williams’ play is highlighted by rare escapability paired with the talent to exploit defenses once the play breaks down. He’s not tall, but he is well-built, with an arm to challenge defenses across the field. He can be a high-impact playmaker on the go or an effective pocket passer when he allows himself to trust his eyes on second and third reads. He can improve his accuracy and placement on intermediate and deep throws, but he’s unlikely to be known for pinpoint accuracy. It is admirable that he looks to keep his eyes up and make throws outside the pocket, but he’ll make things easier on himself early in his pro career by becoming a more decisive scrambler to move the sticks and carry on to the next set of downs. Williams is tremendously talented but often bites off too much responsibility and plays off-schedule. He has a good chance to hit new heights with a surrounding cast he trusts, but greater self-discipline and a well-structured offense might be needed to help him become a quarterback who can elevate a franchise to championship contention.
Daniel Jeremiah noted some bad habits Williams may have developed his final season:
Williams has average height and a thick/muscular build. He is a natural thrower and delivers the ball with accuracy/velocity from a variety of platforms and arm angles. He can power the ball into tight windows while stationary or on the move. He can also finesse the ball when needed. He has lightning-quick hands in the RPO game. He’s a dynamic runner and makes defenders look silly in space. He can run by you, through you, or make you miss. He did fall into some bad habits at USC during the 2023 season. He hunts big plays and always looks to exhaust plays with his legs instead of taking checkdowns. Also, he can get too loose with the ball when creating, swinging it wildly, which leads to fumbles. His creativity makes him special, but he will need to play more on schedule at the next level. Overall, Williams has areas in which he needs to improve, but he has franchise-altering upside.
Dane Brugler illuminates Williams’ immense football awareness:
With his base and body balance, Williams is always in “ready-to-throw” position and can deliver passes anywhere on the field with velocity and accuracy. What makes him special is his poise and mobility, as he masterfully buys time and creates second-chance plays.
He tends to be overconfident in his ability to find answers among chaos, though. Williams led the FBS in touchdowns (120) and “wow” plays over the last three years, but he also led the country in fumbles (33) and needs to take better care of the football.
There will be a lot of NFL comparisons thrown around for Williams, from Patrick Mahomes to Aaron Rodgers to Kyler Murray, but he is truly a unique player with his own style. Above all, his rare football awareness is why he tops this list.
Draft Projection
There are no secrets or questions here — Williams will be the first pick in this year’s draft.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The comps are overall wide-ranging, as we can expect at this position, but Wilson and Manziel are the only true busts from the jump. Trubisky and Mariota were busts eventually, but they still returned some short-term fantasy value (and likely a sell window). Smith and Mayfield were probably considered busts for a hot second but are having revitalized second careers.
Watson and Lawrence are long-term franchise players, and that is ultimately what we are shooting for with Caleb. But the comps paint a picture that even if that doesn’t happen, fantasy owners will have a long rope to move Williams for a solid price.
