CFB Championship Showdown Breakdown: Indiana vs. Miami

 

Indiana vs. Miami (+8.5, 47.5) 

Micah Bedard is too good for showdown articles, so I’m stepping in for my annual article. This isn’t the flashiest national championship game in recent years, but it carries a ton of intrigue as to whether Indiana and Curt Cignetti can finish off the most improbable two-year rise in CFB history.

Unlike NFL DFS, we don’t get very many huge showdown slates in CFB, so I don’t have the historical data and trends that Cody Main and the NFL team do. With that, I’ve included some team-level stats, targets, and snaps for those of you coming over from NFL to play the showdown slate, and then I borrowed the stack idea and top plays section from the NFL showdown article, which is the industry standard showdown article. As always, we’ll be in Discord before and during the game to chat, and luckily this game doesn’t offer much injury news that we need to be monitoring.

 

Team Stats (from teamrankings.com)

 

Passing Offense

Indiana averaged 232.9 passing YPG (60th) on 24.9 attempts/game (120th)

Miami averaged 248.2 passing YPG (42nd) on 30.6 attempts/game (76th)

 

Rushing Offense

Indiana averaged 212.7 rushing YPG (11th) on 41.1 attempts/game (24th)

Miami averaged 150.6 rushing YPG (66th) on 36.7 attempts/game (48th)

 

Passing Defense

Indiana allowed 196.5 passing YPG (26th) on 31.1 opponent attempts/game

Miami allowed 213.8 passing YPG (50th) on 34.0 opponent attempts/game

 

Rushing Defense

Indiana allowed 77.6 rushing YPG (3rd) and 3.0 YPC (10th)

Miami allowed 86.1 rushing YPG (5th) and 3.0 YPC (8th)

 

Scoring Defense

Indiana – 11.9 PPG allowed (2nd)

Miami – 14.8 PPG allowed (5th)

 

Scoring Offense

Indiana – 40.4 PPG (3rd)

Miami – 30.6 PPG (26th)

 

Pace

Indiana averages 66.69 plays per game (68th) and 2.021 plays per minute (124th). 34.06 average time of possession (4th).

Miami averages 67.42 plays per game (60th) and 2.0143 plays per minute (122nd). 33.15 average time of possession (6th).

 

SP+

Miami is 9th in SP+ and Indiana is 1st in SP+

SP+ Score Prediction – Indiana 30.4, Miami 19.3

 

Indiana Targets

Entire season

Omar Cooper, Jr. (84), Elijah Sarratt (81 – missed 2 games), E. J. Williams, Jr. (47), Charlie Becker (39), Riley Nowakowski (34), Roman Hemby (16), Jonathan Brady (15), Holden Staes (10), Lebron Bond (10), Kaelon Black (6), no one else over 5

 

Conference Championship and Playoffs only game by game

vs. Ohio State – Becker (7), Sarratt (4), Brady (2), Nowakowski (2), Williams (1), Hemby (1), Cooper (1)

vs. Alabama – Nowakowski (4), Sarratt (4), Cooper (3), Becker (3), Williams (1), Black (1)

vs. Oregon – Sarratt (7), Cooper (5), Nowakowski (2), Becker (2), Ponds (1), Hemby (1), Williams (1)

 

Indiana Snaps in Playoffs game by game

vs. Alabama (67) – F. Mendoza (58), Nowakowski (58), Sarratt (51), E.J. Williams (41), Hemby (36), Cooper (32), Becker (31), Black (28), Staes (11), A. Mendoza (9), Martin (9), Bond (6), Chandler (6), Brady (5), Bomba (3)

vs. Oregon (61) – F. Mendoza (61), Nowakowski (61), Sarratt (57), Becker (40), Cooper (38), Hemby (34), Black (24), E.J. Williams (21), Martin (6), Brady (4), Staes (3), Bond (2), Ponds (1)

 

Miami Targets

Entire season

Malachi Toney (127), Keelan Marion (77), CJ Daniels (61 – missed 3 games), Elija Lofton (31), Alex Bauman (26), Joshia Trader (23), Joshua Moore (22), CharMar Brown (20), Mark Fletcher, Jr. (20), Tony Johnson (11), Daylyn Upshaw (7), Girard Pringle (5), no one else over 5

 

Playoffs only game by game

vs. Texas A&M – Toney (6), Marion (6), Daniels (3), Bauman (2), Lofton (2), Trader (1), Moore (1)

vs. Ohio State – Marion (7), Daniels (6), Toney (5), Fletcher (4), Brown (1), Trader (1), Lofton (1)

vs. Ole Miss – Toney (10), Marion (10), Daniels (7), Bauman (3), Trader (2), Brown (1), Lofton (1), Moore (1)

 

Miami Snaps in Playoffs Game by Game

vs. Texas A&M (49) – Beck (49), Toney (48), Fletcher (46), Daniels (44), Marion (41), Lofton (37), Bauman (15), Moore (6), Trader (5), Pringle (3)

vs. Ohio State (63) – Beck (63), Toney (56), Daniels (54), Bauman (48), Fletcher (47), Marion (44), Lofton (28), Brown (10), Moore (8), Pringle (6), Trader (5)

vs. Ole Miss (91) – Beck (91), Toney (84), Bauman (82), Daniels (75), Marion (59), Fletcher (53), Brown (38), Moore (19), Gilbert (14), Trader (13), Lofton (12)

 

Injury Notes

As far as injuries go, as of Saturday night, the Hoosiers appear to be mostly healthy with no big questions heading into the game. Indiana did lose their best defensive end, Stephen Daley, in the Big 10 championship game, but they obviously haven’t missed a beat (yet) in their two playoff games.

On the Miami side, starting CB Xavier Lucas was called for targeting in the second half against Ole Miss, so he’ll be suspended for the first half of this one. Another CB, Damari Brown, is listed as questionable on the injury report, and it is also worth noting that another corner, OJ Frederique, only played five snaps against Ole Miss. Frederique is off the injury report, so he’s expected to be good to go, but it’s worth noting he was limited against Ole Miss. Akheem Mesidor, one of Miami’s stud defensive linemen, was also banged up against Ole Miss but is expected to play with a brace on his elbow.

Miami will also be without starting TE Elija Lofton, who was injured against Ole Miss. Alex Bauman should step into starter snaps (82 with Lofton injured against Ole Miss), and Luka Gilbert should step in as the second TE. Lofton didn’t get huge usage, but this is one spot where there is some fragility in projections. Bauman is very cheap, and Gilbert is the minimum price.

 

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Team-Specific Analysis & Notable Price Considerations

 

QB

On the Indiana side, Fernando Mendoza took home the Heisman Trophy, and he’s elevated his game since then, throwing more touchdown passes (8) than incompletions (5) during IU’s playoff run. Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite, and the weaker part of Miami’s defense has clearly been its pass defense. He has the highest projection on the slate, so he makes sense as the top target in all formats. In cash games and small-field tournaments, he looks like the safest captain option on DraftKings. He has some rushing upside with six rushing TDs on the year and 284 rushing yards, but he’s not a true dual-threat QB that you worry about breaking the slate with double-digit rushing points. Due to Indiana’s style of play, he’s also only produced one game with over 300 passing yards, but he’s been incredibly efficient with 41 passing TDs on the year. So, if it’s a lower-scoring game, he’s not the type of QB that I fear running away and hiding as captain. Overall, I like Mendoza quite a bit and will look to use him heavily in the flex, and I think he’s the safest captain for smaller-field stuff. But in large-field tournaments, I think it’s a pretty wide-open slate in terms of captain, and you can take plenty of shots elsewhere, particularly at wide receiver.

Carson Beck was solid against Ole Miss, but that was partially due to Ole Miss’ high pace and weaker defense. Against Ohio State and A&M, Miami didn’t ask him to do very much, and they’re a team that wants to run the ball, first and foremost. He’s been turnover-prone at times this year, and Indiana has feasted on turnovers. As long as this game stays close, it makes sense for Miami to keep him in game-manager mode, and he also offers very little in rushing upside, particularly in a game that should see limited possessions. That’s all evident in his projection of just 14.1 points. I have some concerns with Mendoza’s upside at captain in this matchup, so I definitely have concerns with Beck’s upside, and I’ll have little to no exposure to him as captain. He’s fine to mix in as a flex player, particularly if you’re rolling with a Miami WR as captain, but he’s not someone I’m prioritizing on this slate.