CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 1 – Saturday Main

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

Quarterback

Bo Nix (ORE – DK $10,100) – Pricing makes Nix more of a luxury than a priority on this DK slate, but we have seen the billboards that show Nix is on a Heisman campaign. That can often lead to a little bit of stat padding since the notoriety is worth so much to the school. Outside of that fairly flimsy narrative, the actual reason of interest is that Oregon’s offense is extremely high-powered, is going to put up TD after TD with ease here, and we saw many times last season that Nix has no issues being a vulture inside the 5-yard line. While there is a good chance that Nix only plays three quarters, he is still live for 5+ touchdowns. It is not necessary to stack Nix here, and we think limiting Nix with his running backs is the correct move in tournaments, as we are just trying to capture as much of that touchdown variance as possible within a singular play. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.

Chandler Morris (TCU – DK $6,900, FD $9,400) – TCU lost a lot this offseason, but they reloaded in the transfer portal at WR and there is a good chance that Morris is actually a more talented QB than Max Duggan. Morris can certainly run a bit too, which is appealing, and we think he will see plenty of clean pockets, as Colorado may have some issues generating much of a pass rush. Nothing really separates Morris as being the top option at QB over Milton/Penix/Nix except for his favorable sub-$7K price tag on DK. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.

Joe Milton III (TENN – DK $8,700, FD $11,000) – The Joe Milton redemption story starts here, as the much-criticized (mostly unfairly) QB takes over the Tennessee offense. He doesn’t have but a game or two to prove he is the guy, as five-star Nico Iamaleava waits in the wings (but the staff really does not want to burn his redshirt most likely). In a matchup versus Virginia, the rocket-armed signal-caller should be quite productive, as he has a very talented group of receivers in a great scheme. We saw Milton play the Tennessee bowl game versus Clemson last year where he put up 250 yards and three TDs with no interceptions versus a really good defense. Milton just provides a really solid floor/ceiling combination at a reasonable price tag (and we want to play a lot of Tennessee’s WRs). GPP Recommendation: 1 to 2 pass catchers in stack.

Michael Penix Jr. (WASH – DK $8,400, FD $10,800) – Coming off a 4,600+ yard season with 35 combined TDs, Penix looks to further solidify his draft stock with another big season. The offense is set up for success, as they return his top three wideouts and they run an extremely pass-heavy system (59% pass rate last year, which is extremely high for CFB). An added benefit of Penix is that we likely are not going to have to deal with blowout risk as we may with Nix and possibly Milton, as Boise State should keep this one close. GPP Recommendation: 1 to 2 pass catchers in stack.

Running Back