Last Updated: August 15th at 1:00 am ET
Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as news breaks. Please refresh this page for adjustments and notes on injuries.
Injuries
*Tyus Jones (Knee) – Doubtful
Showdown Breakdown
For the purposes of this article, we’re going to focus on the game on DraftKings as the dynamic captain pricing is more sophisticated, less likely to get monstrous duplicates, and frankly a more compelling game. At the bottom of the article, we’ll provide a ranking of the players on the slate. The ranking list can be useful for FanDuel but the game itself on FanDuel will lead to heavy duplicates and it makes the game a bit more about creating unique lineups so when you do win you win very big. The process requires losing often so it’s a tough sell, but if you want to play on FanDuel and use this content we suggest deviating from grouping the top 5-6 plays together, especially in the same multiplier order. Those lineups will be massively duplicated.
Onto the more complex game. When I play NBA showdown DFS, my approach is through mass-multi entry. I believe my edge is through creating bulk lineup sets that are well crafted (careful rules), likely a bit more spread than the field on captain exposure, occasionally taking calculated risks, and of course strong projections. While my approach is geared towards mass-multi entry, it doesn’t mean you have to do the same. There are concepts here to utilize when hand-building lineups as well.
Creating Sensible Rules for Showdown
Rules (or groups) aren’t unique to those who use an optimizer to help build lineups. They are ideas that hand-built lineups should put into practice as well. In showdown, the overwhelming majority of rules should focus on players that impact each other’s playing time. This is especially the case in the playoffs where rotations get tighter and fewer players are able to accrue points.
Here are some players that their playing time impacts one another:
- Hassan Whiteside and Jusuf Nurkic
- Mario Hezonja and Anfernee Simons
- Kyle Anderson and Anthony Tolliver
- Jonas Valanciunas and Gorgui Dieng
- Zach Collins and Mario Hezonja
It’s unlikely these players end up in the same winning lineup together since their playing time is directly correlated. You would need something unusual to happen like a lopsided blowout where the starter and reserve crush the opponent or an injury/foul trouble situation that forces the team to really deviate from their normal rotation.
Captain Selection
The majority of questions I get around showdown are focused on captain selection. I think the mentality comes from sports like NFL or MLB where on player’s performance can deviate so heavily from expectations that the selection itself is a big differentiator on the slate. In NBA DFS, the production relative to expectation is typically tighter and thus the overall lineup construction is more important than the captain selection. As a result, I’ll often try to take more spread approaches at my captain exposure. In this slate, Damian Lillard’s out-sized performances throughout the bubble restart are likely going to inflate his captain ownership. In 150 optimal lineups with no constraints, I get Damian in the captain spot around 19% of the time. I imagine his captain ownership will come in closer to 25% or higher. This is an opportunity on this slate to naturally get a bit contrarian in an optimal way. There will be many other slates where this is more difficult and one player truly out-paces everyone else in projection by a wide margin. This isn’t the case on this slate though so consider building around a different captain.
A Calculated Risk
These two rosters have competent backup centers that can offer quick fantasy production at relatively affordable price tags. They’ll also come in way under the ownership of their starters who have largely been successful throughout the bubble. Foul trouble is something that can immediately impact playing time and when two teams play through their centers as much as these two do it’s a persistent risk. In lineups that don’t use Valanciunas, consider using Dieng or Clarke as the salary relief options. In lineups that don’t use Nurkic, consider utilizing Whiteside. This creates natural leverage on these lineups if one of the starting centers (who both should be heavily owned) gets into foul trouble.
Player Rankings
Below are the players ranked in order of projected points scored today.
- Damian Lillard
- Ja Morant
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Jusuf Nurkic
- C.J. McCollum
- Dillon Brooks
- Carmelo Anthony
- Brandon Clarke
- Gary Trent Jr.
- Kyle Anderson
- Zach Collins
- Grayson Allen
- Hassan Whiteside
- Gorgui Dieng
- De’Anthony Melton
- Anthony Tolliver
- Mario Hezonja
- Anfernee Simons
