Episode Summary: Market Monday – August 3 (August 3, 2026)
Adam Levitan returns with another Market Monday. He shares his painful Ricky Pearsall exposure numbers — 15.9% at $2,006 in real dollars — and walks through where he is now rotating: Adam is taking De’Zhaun Stribling in the 120s and Deebo Samuel in the late 120s to 130s. Alec Pierce sliding to 88 overall on the PUP news is a buying opportunity in Adam’s eyes — if his ankle is finally right after surgery, the payoff is real. And Jeremiyah Love sliding to 30 overall is a “close your eyes and bet on talent” pick despite the Cardinals’ committee rhetoric. Plus Tank Dell off any injury list, Jaylin Noel starting camp on NFI, Tank Bigsby as the top handcuff on the board, and why Tony Pollard at 74 does not fit Adam’s draft profile.
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Key Topics
- Risers: De’Zhaun Stribling up 34 spots to 148 overall, Deebo Samuel up 21.3 to 147, Tank Dell up 5.5 to 184, and Tank Bigsby up 4.1 to 167.
- Fallers: Alec Pierce down 7.3 spots to 88 overall, Jeremiyah Love down 3.0 to 30 overall, Tony Pollard down 2.2 to 74, and Jaylin Noel down 6.0 to 228.
Takeaway #1 (1:42): Adam is buying De’Zhaun Stribling in the 120s and Deebo Samuel in the late 120s to 130s after the Ricky Pearsall injury
- Adam ran his numbers on The Solver portfolio tool as soon as the Ricky Pearsall news broke. Across 69 drafts, he has 15.9% Pearsall exposure, 25.2% Pearsall in fees, and $2,006 in real dollars — probably marked zero. His takeaway: Maybe getting overweight above ETR’s rank on a guy coming off a PCL injury was the mistake. PCL injuries have wrecked Brock Bowers’ season last year, Kyle Pitts for a couple of years, Dalton Kincaid for a couple of years, and ended Rashaad Penny’s career. Adam could have been flatter with Josh Downs, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, or Jordan Addison in that tier.
- Adam had been I-know-better-ing his way onto De’Zhaun Stribling before the news. Prospect bros hated him, but the NFL loved him — 33rd overall pick going at 190. He is going to play the grinder spot in the 49ers’ offense, the role Jauan Jennings played. Jennings stumbled into 77 catches, 975 yards, and six touchdowns in 2024. Stribling is a better athlete (4.36 at 6-foot-2, 207 pounds). Adam is willing to take him in the 120s in the KC Concepcion/Jalen Coker group. He would have gone even higher if the 49ers had not signed Deebo Samuel.
- Adam’s concern on Deebo is that his entire game is doing freaky things after the catch with tackle-breaking ability and YAC. Can he do that at 30? A little worried. But going back to San Francisco, where they know how to use him, Adam still takes Deebo in the late 120s or 130s. He prefers Stribling. He shades all 49ers guys a little higher than pure rank because of contingent value — if Christian McCaffrey goes down, George Kittle does not make it back, or something happens to Mike Evans, it is even better for Stribling and Deebo.
Takeaway #2 (11:41): Alec Pierce sliding to 88 overall is the time to buy
- Pierce was going around pick 70 to 80 for most of the summer. He starts camp on active/PUP due to the ankle surgery. It was totally expected. Then he drops 7.3 spots in a week because of that red Out tag DraftKings puts next to his name and George Kittle’s. Adam thinks this is the time to buy on Pierce as he sinks toward pick 90.
- Pierce has been playing through this ankle injury since 2024. The Colts knew about it and still gave him $84 million guaranteed. They still let Michael Pittman Jr. walk. Another positive: Daniel Jones’ Achilles is looking really good at camp, running around without restriction. That is huge for the whole offense.
- What if Pierce’s ankle is actually better after the surgery than it was when he was one of the best deep threats in the NFL the last two years? What if he can do some Pittman-esque middle-of-the-field stuff? Adam has concerns the Colts overpaid for a pure field stretcher, but at pick 88, that is more than baked in. This is one of the reasons the running back-heavy starts feel so good — the Alec Pierce/Josh Downs/Michael Pittman Jr./Jayden Reed/Jordan Addison/Matthew Golden tier between pick 85 and 110 is strong.
Takeaway #3 (13:20): Jeremiyah Love sliding to 30 overall is a “close your eyes and bet on talent” pick
- Three things are driving the Love slide. First, the Cardinals’ coaches (Nathaniel Hackett included) are going around talking about the committee rhetoric. They have Tyler Allgeier listed first on the depth chart. Second, drafters have been burned by high rookie running back picks — Ashton Jeanty was bad last year, Omarion Hampton did not work out, and Bijan Robinson got Arthur Smithed in 2023. And third, Malik Nabers’ health news has pushed Nabers up to the 2-3 turn a lot, and drafters feel better about Nabers than Love.
- Adam has been taking Nabers over Love in that spot lately, partially to catch up on Nabers exposure but also because he thinks Nabers is the better play if he is anywhere near 100%. Love might keep getting cheaper — the Cardinals will keep talking committee, Trey Benson might get traded, and there is speculation on James Conner, too. Arizona’s brutal schedule is real.
- Adam would be lying if he said he felt great about Jeremiyah Love, but he is not passing on the running back who went third overall in the NFL Draft in the middle of the third round of a fantasy draft. Just a straight-up close-your-eyes, bet-on-talent, let-the-chips-fall situation. If Jeanty (ADP around 12 last year) had not gone so poorly, Adam thinks drafters would be way more into Love this year.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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