Kansas City @ Las Vegas
Team Totals: Chiefs 25.5, Raiders 17
Among 2023’s biggest box-score disappointments, Patrick Mahomes ranks No. 9 among quarterbacks in fantasy points, adversely impacted by incompetent wideout play and an elite K.C. defense that obstructs scoring environments. Mahomes’ Week 12 outlook is improved, however, by Raiders DPOY candidate Maxx Crosby’s (knee, doubtful) absence. Las Vegas has played above-average pass defense all season but has faced one of the league’s softest quarterback schedules and last week coughed up 325 yards and two touchdowns on 8.3 yards per attempt to Tua Tagovailoa while generating just one sack on 40 Tua dropbacks. I’m valuing Mahomes as a mid-range QB1. … Jerick McKinnon’s ball-handling role has been minimal this season, but he has played 31% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps and frequently checks into scoring-position sets. McKinnon’s (groin) absence enhances Isiah Pacheco’s Week 12 playing-time and touchdown projections. Pacheco is coming off a 20-touch outing in last week’s loss to Philadelphia. He’s an upside RB2 against a Raiders defense surrendering the league’s seventh most fantasy RB points.
(Painfully) emerging as Kansas City’s No. 1 wide receiver, Justin Watson has logged season-high snap rates of 63% and 63% in consecutive games and easily paced Chiefs WRs in Week 12 targets (11) against the Eagles.
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