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Chiefs vs. 49ers

Team Totals: 49ers 24.5, Chiefs 22.5

Arguably an overrated unit with pass-rush inconsistencies, the 49ers played run-funnel defense in their initial two playoff games, holding previously-hot Jordan Love and Jared Goff to 46-of-75 (61%) combined passing for 467 yards (6.2 YPA) and a 3:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Love ran for three yards against the Niners; Goff ran for none. Patrick Mahomes is a different animal — he’s been the best player in football for the past six years — but this matchup is imposing, especially considering Mahomes’ subpar supporting cast. I’m fading Mahomes’ passing props but bet him to run for over 26.5 yards at -110 odds. The Niners allowed the NFL’s 11th-most regular-season QB rushing yards (332). Mahomes is averaging exactly 26.5 rushing yards over his last 15 playoff contests but is easy to envision forcing more onto his own plate with limited help in what projects as a tight-score game. I also took K.C. to top 103.5 rushing yards as a team (+100).

The 49ers’ defensive front was physically manhandled in each of its first two playoff games, conceding a combined 49/262/2 (5.3 YPC) rushing line to Packers and Lions running backs.

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