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Sunday Football

1:00 PM ET Game

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 21.5, Steelers 12.5

I took the Bills’ team total at below 21.5 points against a Steelers defense yielding the NFL’s sixth-fewest PPG (19.1) while getting back first-team safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Damontae Kazee (suspension) from three-game absences. Pittsburgh is without sackmaster T.J. Watt (MCL) but ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA allowed since Week 10. Sunday’s weather forecast calls for 20-degree temperatures with sustained 20 MPH winds, gusts up to 40 MPH, and “inches” of sticky snow. I’m anticipating an extreme-volume rushing effort for Josh Allen but significantly reduced passing-game impact. I parlayed Pittsburgh to cover this game’s 9-point spread with Allen to exceed 44.5 rushing yards at +405. … James Cook banked touch counts of 27 and 20 in Weeks 15-16 but fumbled twice in Week 16, then dipped slightly to touch counts of 17 and 16 in the final two regular-season weeks. Leonard Fournette swiped seven touches on a 21% playing-time clip in last week’s win over Miami, emerging as Buffalo’s No. 2 back. The regular-season Steelers gave up the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.

I expect the Steelers to shadow Stefon Diggs with top CB Joey Porter, then rely on Fitzpatrick and Kazee to shore up their middle-of-the-field coverage with Patrick Peterson continuing to chip in at safety.

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