Deshaun Watson has made his decision.
After more than a year of NFL fans speculating where the 26-year-old would end up, he has chosen to waive his no-trade clause to join the Cleveland Browns. It’s a shocking decision after numerous reports surfaced indicating the Browns had been ruled out and Watson was deciding between Atlanta and New Orleans.
Watson was found not guilty on criminal charges last week, but he still has 22 civil lawsuits hanging over his head, with accusations ranging from sexual misconduct to sexual assault. The Browns evidently do not care about potential character shortcomings, and they chose to trade three first-round picks, a third-round pick, and a fifth-round pick for Watson. The Watson saga is far from over — he’ll face a suspension from the league and deal with PR backlash for his actions for the rest of his career — but let’s dig into how ETR’s projections changed as a result of the trade.
DESHAUN WATSON
Old projection: N/A
New projection: 341.2 completions on 513.1 attempts (66.5%) for 4,169.6 yards, 27.5 touchdowns, and 10.1 interceptions. 88.5 carries for 422.2 yards and 4.3 touchdowns. QB9 on Underdog.
- Previously, we did not have an exact projection for Watson because we didn’t know what team he would be on.
- We have a better idea of what his stats will look like now, but he’s still a nightmare to project because there’s a suspension coming his way. The NFL isn’t exactly a bastion of consistency when it comes to suspending players, making it difficult to know how much we should knock him. A four-game suspension wouldn’t be the end of the world for fantasy owners, especially those playing in large-field best ball tournaments (which is mostly what people are drafting right now). On the other hand, if he’s out half the year or more, that would have an enormous impact on his value. Watson and his agent basically conceded that he will be suspended to start 2022, as his contract was specifically crafted with the impending suspension in mind:
Important contract note for Deshaun Watson, who got a 5-year, $230M contract. His base salary for 2022 is $1M, which means if he’s suspended, it’ll come out of that base.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 18, 2022
- Watson’s projected efficiency is in line with his career numbers for the most part. The question mark with him is volume (both in terms of how long he’ll be suspended as well as how much Cleveland opens up their offense now that they have an elite quarterback).
- The Browns’ receiving corps is also not a finished product. They traded their first-round pick — which many expected to turn into a wide receiver — to acquire Watson, leaving them with three Day 2 picks as their ammunition for the 2022 NFL Draft. They should take a wideout with one of those picks, and that player should immediately challenge Donovan Peoples-Jones for WR2 duties. There are also a few free agent receivers left on the market; Antonio Brown already expressed interest in teaming up with Watson in Cleveland. We have baked in the assumption that they will add someone.
Cleveland Antonio Browns
C-A-B
— AB (@AB84) March 18, 2022
- Once his suspension is over, Watson should be the same elite fantasy quarterback he has always been. The receiving corps won’t be great, but Watson’s arm talent and running ability will land him among the fantasy elites.
AMARI COOPER
Old projection: 66.9 catches on 105.7 targets for 852.9 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. WR30 on Underdog.
New projection: 70.6 catches on 105.7 targets for 933.7 yards and 6.2 touchdowns. WR23 on Underdog.
- Needless to say, the Watson trade is a massive boon to every Browns pass catcher. He is as good a quarterback as he is despicable a human being, and Cooper’s efficiency jumps big-time with Watson under center. There weren’t any changes to the Browns’ receiving corps, so Cooper’s target share didn’t change, but he jumps seven spots in our rankings as a result of increased efficiency.
OTHER BROWNS PLAYERS
- Every pass catcher saw major bumps in efficiency with Watson calling the shots rather than Baker Mayfield. Peoples-Jones saw a slight boost in target share (partly because we may have been low before; partly because he’s more likely to be their WR2 or WR3 now that they don’t have a first-round pick).
- Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both lost a few carries with Watson coming to town and flirting with triple-digit-carry status (if he’s not suspended), but it wasn’t anything that’ll have a major impact on their value. If anything, Watson’s arrival creates a ceiling for the offense as a whole that did not exist previously, which benefits both Chubb and Hunt.
