Once the Dolphins signed Cedrick Wilson in free agency and traded for Tyreek Hill in a blockbuster deal, it became evident that DeVante Parker was the odd man out in the Miami receiving corps. It was a question of when, not if, Parker would be dealt — and that was answered on Saturday afternoon when the Patriots traded a third-round pick for the 29-year-old wideout and a fifth-rounder.
Parker will immediately slot in as a starter for New England alongside Jakobi Meyers, while Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor will presumably split WR3 duties. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will roll out Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Wilson at wide receiver. Let’s take a look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of the trade.
DEVANTE PARKER
Old projection: 42.6 catches on 72.3 targets for 563.6 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. WR80 on Underdog.
New projection: 47.2 catches on 80.0 targets for 629.4 yards and 3.9 touchdowns. WR65 on Underdog.
- Parker sees a significant jump in target share with the Patriots since he should slot in as the WR2 right away (we still have Meyers with a higher target share). However, he goes from a balanced offensive attack in Miami to one of the run-heaviest teams in the league in New England, so his raw target projection only increases by 7.7 as a result of the move.
- Still, Parker’s target share ceiling is likely higher in his new surroundings since he doesn’t have Hill and Waddle to compete with for looks anymore. On the whole, Parker’s fantasy value jumps with the Patriots, but it’s still hard to get overly excited about a player who may not even be the WR1 on one of the most run-heavy teams in the league.
CEDRICK WILSON
Old projection: 28.9 catches on 44.5 targets for 346.4 yards and 2.3 touchdowns. WR103 on Underdog.
New projection: 43.7 catches on 67.4 targets for 524.5 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. WR83 on Underdog.
- Wilson slots in as the Dolphins’ WR3 now that Parker is out of the picture. Hill and Waddle are the clear alphas for Tua Tagovailoa, but Wilson should be on the field a lot and has some interesting contingency upside if either of the top two wideouts misses time. He’s a late-round dart throw.
OTHER DOLPHINS PLAYERS
- Wilson was the main beneficiary since he’s Tagovailoa’s WR3 now, but we also bumped the end-of-depth-chart wideouts (Trent Sherfield and Preston Williams), not that anyone is considering them in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues.
JAKOBI MEYERS
Old projection: 62.4 catches on 94.9 targets for 733.9 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. WR55 on Underdog.
New projection: 59.2 catches on 90.0 targets for 695.3 yards and 3.3 touchdowns. WR56 on Underdog.
- We didn’t knock Meyers’ target share too much, largely because he should remain in the same underneath role he was in previously. Parker poses more target competition than Agholor or Bourne — which is why we did knock Meyers’ market share by a percent — but we still view him as the favorite to lead the Patriots in targets.
OTHER PATRIOTS PLAYERS
- Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor stand out as the two biggest fallers as a result of the Parker trade. Both players move down in the pecking order as ancillary pieces in the Patriots’ passing game as opposed to guys who will be on the field for the majority of snaps. Agholor particularly has a redundant style of play with Parker (high average depth of target field stretcher), but both he and Bourne took a sizable hit in our rankings.
