The Chargers signed Najee Harris to a one-year deal worth up to $9.25 million on Monday night to cap off the first day of free agency. Let’s dive into what this means for fantasy.
NAJEE HARRIS
- This is the ideal landing spot for Harris. He’s exactly the type of consistent, hard-nosed, dual-faceted RB that coaches love, and Jim Harbaugh has generally architected highly efficient run games throughout his coaching career (4.0 team YPC ranked 27th in football, but J.K. Dobbins managed 4.6 YPC while dealing with injuries both to himself and the offensive line). Gus Edwards got cut, and Kimani Vidal had a disappointing rookie season. With how much Harbaugh loves the run game, they could still add another RB in free agency or the draft — perhaps a Jaylen Warren lightning-type back to contrast with Harris’ thunderous running style — but Harris is the favorite for early-down work.
- The Chargers were above average in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2024, a stark contrast from the preseason expectations of most pundits given Harbaugh’s affinity for running the ball in the past. Harbaugh was publicly Justin Herbert‘s biggest supporter last season and the Chargers were reportedly in the DK Metcalf sweepstakes — showing they want to upgrade WR — so they could easily remain in the top half of the league in PROE. Still, Harris can remain a strong fantasy asset on a neutral-PROE, above-average-efficiency offense — that would be my expectation right now.
- Herbert had one pivotal TD run against the Titans on a designed rush, but he had a 1% designed rush share for the season (granted, he was dealing with an injury for part of the year). Harris should have a clear path to the goal-line role.
- Stylistically, this is a match made in heaven, and Harris likely retains a role all season. The only question is who LAC gets as a Harris complement and whether it’ll be a Warren-esque back who forces an even committee or if the Chargers entrust Harris with 15+ carries per game and a moderate pass-game role, in which case he could post an unsexy top-12 RB season on volume alone if he stays healthy.
JAYLEN WARREN
- Warren has long been the most efficient Pittsburgh RB but has yet to handle more than 149 carries in a season, and Harris has never missed a game in his NFL career, so we don’t know what the carries ceiling is. We can feel confident about Warren retaining the pass-game role considering he’s held that role for years, and there’s a legitimate carries ceiling if PIT doesn’t invest much capital into the position over the rest of the offseason. They will definitely add someone, but they now only have one first-round pick and one third-round pick after the Metcalf trade, and it’s difficult to imagine a Day 3 pick significantly pushing Warren.
- There are still free-agent RBs left on the market who can eat up carries (the aforementioned Dobbins would be one), so we’ll see how the next few days/weeks go before fully assessing Warren. However, the decision to let Harris walk and put a second-round tender on Warren demonstrates faith in the former UDFA. If he gets 200 carries in addition to the pass-game role he had previously, he has top-12 fantasy upside.
FORMER CHARGERS RUNNING BACKS
- Vidal will have to hope he makes it through the offseason without another back being added, and even then he’d have to beat out Hassan Haskins for the RB2 role, though Haskins was mostly used sparingly at the goal line rather than as a consistent all-around RB last year.
- Dobbins remains an unrestricted free agent. Given his injury history (including another injury last year despite how well he ran overall), it’s difficult to see him getting an expensive or long-term deal. Still, he can return alright fantasy value as a committee back, but we’ll see where he lands.
- Gus Edwards turns 30 years old in April and looked cooked (3.6 YPC last year). He’s off the fantasy radar.
