We have our first day with back-to-back concerns! The Wizards are basically dead in the water on their playoff chances, but the Grizzlies and Spurs are likely going to give it their all to win. Still, keep your eyes peeled for news because teams don’t have to submit injury reports until five hours before tip.
Toronto Raptors (112) vs. Miami Heat (109, B2B), 1:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Raptors 9th, Heat 23rd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Raptors 27th, Heat 25th
Raptors expected starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Heat expected starters: Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Injury news: Oshae Brissett (knee) is out, Patrick McCaw (knee) will not play, Goran Dragic (back) is probable and Bam Adebayo (quad contusion) is probable.
Raptors rotation notes: 29 minutes of FVV-Lowry overlap (26 average on season), no Gasol-Serge overlap vs. Lakers (89 minutes on season).
Heat rotation notes: Spo, Jimmy Butler and others made it seem like Crowder in the first unit is here to stay, Butler said Spo talked to Meyers Leonard about new role (possibly out of rotation), only eight first-half minutes for Olynyk (24 total, 20 points scored), no Nunn-Dragic overlap on Saturday.
Worth a mention here that Butler had an excused absence from practice, but he’s not on the injury report. It’s the first game of the day, so we’ll get confirmation he’s starting. Spo can keep a secret, so he may not exactly say what’s up with Butler (I wouldn’t go Jimmy in cash). As mentioned in the rotation notes, Jae is likely sticking per Jimmy. “I think that’s what we’re going with,” Jimmy said. “I trust Coach. I trust Jae. And I trust Meyers. [Leonard] took it really, really well and I think he’s in a position that he still wants to help us win.” Bam also said he likes to switch with Jimmy and Jae, and Spo did add that he will roll with this lineup for “likely the next two.” Matchup wise, you know it’s not a great one after you probably saw what OG Anunoby did to LeBron James and Anthony Davis on Saturday night. The tough matchups for them might require more off-ball action for guys like Duncan Robinson or even Jae. The Raptors are also the second-best defense on FG% at the rim against (58.9%, Bucks first at 54.9), so this might not be a Bam game here.
Both these teams can really lock in defensively, and the Raptors as a team put up just 93 points against the Heat in their two matchups. The only player with more than 20 points per game against them is Norman Powell (23 in just one game, missed the other). Even with Jae, Bam is likely going to get some Siakam to limit him a bit. The Heat will probably try to hide Robinson on OG as a move commonly used by coaches, so he might be able to build off his eye-catching Lakers outing (presumably might have higher ownership with so many eyeballs on him). FVV was 40.3 minutes on Saturday, so yeah, he’s certainly someone to consider.
Matchup Helps: Duncan Robinson, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby
Matchup Hurts: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Pascal Siakam
Denver Nuggets (106.3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (112.3), 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Nuggets 27th, Thunder 16th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Nuggets 22nd, Thunder 29th
Nuggets expected starters: Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (note: also very possible it’s Michael Porter Jr. again, explained below)
Thunder expected starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Injury news: Gary Harris (hip) and Will Barton (knee) are out again, Jamal Murray (hamstring) is questionable again after missing Saturday.
Nuggets rotation notes: Monte Morris had some foul trouble in the first half (looked like he was playing four eight-minute stints in his first game since recovering from COVID-19), Jerami Grant had 23.3 minutes at SF on Saturday, 6.0 minutes of Mason Plumlee with Jokic, Bol Bol with 3.1 minutes next to Jokic (6.7 with Plumlee, 1.5 with both).
Thunder rotation notes: Garbage time against the Jazz cut down some minutes for the starters, even with garbage time Steven Adams topped his 27.0 minutes season average (27.4).
The Nuggets are likely going to be without Jamal Murray here again. Coach Mike Malone has said repeatedly that he isn’t concerned with seed and he only wants to be healthy for the playoffs. Murray was working on his hammy with the training staff on Saturday and hammy strains are easily aggravated compared to other strains (Paul George and Marc Gasol have multiple this season, for example), so you’d think he sits. If you played Michael Porter Jr. on Saturday, you were probably a grumpy person to start your NBA day. He was roasted on defense throughout the loss to the Heat, would routinely bring help when he wasn’t supposed to and vice versa, and you could just see Malone blowing a gasket on the sidelines. We’ve seen Malone talk effort before and he did after the game. “I like guys that play hard. I’m attracted to guys that go out there and no matter what’s going on find a way to give great effort. And we need to find those. We had good examples but we didn’t have enough good examples tonight,” Malone said. You’d think this was Porter, and man CP3 can make a bad defender look like it’s his first day of playing basketball. He’s still an option today because he’s shown he can really get hot, and obviously the Nuggets need offense. It’s going to be a bad matchup for their guards, but Malone also wanted to see more out of Morris and Dozier, saying they could’ve done a better job of getting the team in the offense and being coaches on the floor. We saw what the OKC guards did to Utah’s on Saturday, but the opportunity is there for Morris. As you might expect, Jokic had the ball in his hands a ton with 111 touches and 14 post-ups (97.8, 8.2 season averages), and he has roasted Adams so far in two matchups this season with a per-36 line of 26/13/11 on 80.0 TS%, and he did so again last year in a bigger sample of 116 minutes with a 26/12/8 line in those four games.
Adams has been effective against Jokic with a 17 and nine per-36 line last year and was really good in a 41-minute sample at 23 and 18 this season. SGA did get a sub in during the fourth, so he was likely headed for a 36-minute role in the first game on Saturday, and CP3 didn’t even play the final 8:34. Their rotation is pretty much locked in here and they looked in rhythm when they smashed the Jazz. Always take a small sample with a grain of salt, but the Nuggets allowed the Heat to shoot 70.6% on drives. SGA is like Mario Andretti out there these days, so he might be carving them up. Of course, the extra size shouldn’t be an issue for mid-range stud CP3.
Matchup Helps: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Nikola Jokic, Steven Adams
Matchup Hurts: Monte Morris (still like him as a volume play)
Indiana Pacers (117.8, B2B) vs. Washington Wizards (109.8, B2B), 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Pacers 20th, Wizards 4th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Pacers 26th, Wizards 6th
Pacers expected starters: Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, T.J. Warren, JaKarr Sampson, Myles Turner
Wizards expected starters: Shabazz Napier, Troy Brown, Isaac Bonga, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant
Injury news: Victor Oladipo (rest) is doubtful, Malcolm Brogdon (neck) is questionable, and Goga Bitadze (knee, listed questionable) is unlikely to play.
Pacers rotation notes: Four minutes of overlap of Aaron Holiday and T.J. McConnell, JaKarr has no minutes next to Myles in the scrimmages and on Saturday.
Wizards rotation notes: 11 minutes of Ish-Napier overlap (5 Sunday, 6 Friday), Brown and Bryant played together for all but just one minute on Sunday.
Coach Nate McMillan said Malcolm Brogdon (neck) couldn’t turn his head on Saturday after his injury in the last scrimmage, so you’d think he’s very questionable and he could sit. That, of course, puts the Pacers in a very bad position in a back-to-back set with depth. We know for sure that T.J. Warren, Myles Turner and Aaron Holiday are going to start after some glowing reviews on Holiday during a win over the 76ers (and yes, you know Warren dropped 53). Holiday upped his touch time to 5.4 minutes and that was even with Dipo, so that’s likely going up even more today. The Wizards continue to get shredded on guys who can get into the teeth of their defense, so Holiday is going to be a chalky play for good reason. T.J. McConnell should have more overlap with Holiday in this game, but McMillan has suggested he really likes him in the second unit. Edmond Sumner has struggled to stay healthy and cleared the 22-minute mark just twice this season, so he likely makes sense as a bench guy. Justin Holiday should be the best bet to start here, and McMillan likes to use him against smaller fours like Rui. After that, that’s where it gets tricky. JaKarr has been subbing in for Myles (mentioned above) and McMillan said he was the center even when Turner was out for the scrimmage. Still, from a depth perspective, it does kind of make sense to start him to put T.J. Leaf as the backup five and Doug McDermott as the backup four with some SF minutes when they have to. Although, McMillan really loves continuity in his rotations and was routinely doing a full line change in the scrimmages to hopefully increase the chemistry. With that, I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see Alize Johnson get the start. Myles Turner could be a smash.
Troy Brown did it. After getting some of the biggest buzz at Disney, he came through on Sunday in a dream matchup after foul trouble cut him down on Friday. Even before the game, Brook said he wanted to see Troy “get himself involved” a little more on both sides, and he certainly did with a 22/10/8 line. Giddy up again. Another guy who really came through was Thomas Bryant with his 30/13/3 line in a whopping 37 minutes. Like Brown, he also got the pre-game buzz with Brooks saying he wants to see more energy from Bryant. It might be tough to see him get in the upper 30s again in a back-to-back because he was managed basically since Thanksgiving due to injury, but he’s still a possible option. Jerome Robinson benefited from Brown’s foul trouble in the first game, but he still was 28 minutes with a full 12-minute fourth (11 on Friday).
Matchup Helps: Myles Turner, Troy Brown, Aaron Holiday, T.J. Warren, T.J. McConnell, Ish Smith
Matchup Hurts: Shabazz Napier
Memphis Grizzlies (116.3, B2B) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (120.8), 6:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Grizzlies 8th, Pelicans 3rd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Grizzlies 4th, Pelicans 13th
Grizzlies expected starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jonas Valanciunas
Pelicans expected starters: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williams, Derrick Favors
Injury news: Zion Williamson will have a minutes restriction again.
Grizzlies rotation notes: Grayson Allen had seven minutes without Ja and De’Anthony Melton (four with no Ja, Melt, Brooks), Dillon Brooks had five minutes at PG in the first game (three minutes without Ja and Melt on Sunday), only five minutes of Brandon Clarke next to Jaren Jackson Jr. on Sunday (30 on Friday), Dillon Brooks likes to shoot (this is still a recording).
Pelicans rotation notes: The wheels came off against the Clippers, Jrue and Lonzo continue to get overlap, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the king of garbage time, Nicolo Melli likely will be a straight PF like Thursday.
This game is shaping up to be a pace fest here and really any non-Zion starter is on the board. Jrue is getting a date with Dillon Brooks after a brutal matchup against Paul George. He was at 36 minutes in the first game and the Pelicans have to get this game, so coach Alvin Gentry will likely go with old reliable. It also sets up for Brandon Ingram for the same reasons, especially with Kyle Anderson on the other side of things.
This one sets up extremely well for Ja and he has the narrative of showing out while Zion is limited. Morant has a whopping 28.5 drives per game in the two Orlando outings, and the Pelicans are the second-worst team in the NBA at allowing points per drive, and they’re the second worst in points allowed via drives. Giddy up. Dillon Brooks likes to shoot and the Pelicans like to give up points, so are we allowed to like Dillon Brooks? No? OK. Grayson Allen has really locked down the job as one of the main second-unit backcourt guys after 28 minutes, and he should be looking at decent run again here. Jaren Jackson should get another favorable matchup for the third game in a row with Zion taking a lot of gambles, and he’ll have an advantage regardless. Plus, the Pelicans pushing the pace is right up his alley as more of a center. Second-unit wise, Brandon Clarke could be looking at a decent amount of Nicolo Melli and/or Brandon Ingram when Zion is off the court. I’d be careful on JV on the B2B.
Matchup Helps: Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke
Matchup Hurts: Nobody
San Antonio Spurs (B2B) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:00 EDT
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Spurs 15th, 76ers 26th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Spurs 11th, 76ers 10th
Spurs expected starters: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl
76ers expected starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid
Injury news: Glenn Robinson (hip) is doubtful and Mike Scott (knee) is out.
Spurs rotation notes: 18 minutes of Rudy Gay at the five in the last two (11 first, 7 second), Keldon has seen 15 minutes in the fourth quarter in the two games and was at 7.7 per fourth in the three games prior to the shutdown, 23 minutes of DeMar-Gay overlap (nine of it has a PF/C combo), 30 minutes of overlap for Dejounte and Derrick in the last two (only 102 all year before), Pop did change his rotation a bit in the second half on Sunday on Keldon.
76ers rotation notes: Shake foul trouble cut his minutes down and Raul Neto was clutch in minutes against the Pacers.
Spurs on a back-to-back without an injury report is a bit scary, and we might not find out about it until mid-afternoon. The Pacers killed the 76ers with a lot of cutting and off-ball movement, so it was likely more about them not being ready and T.J. Warren just going nuclear on Saturday. They looked locked in at times in the scrimmages, and they’ll likely look a lot better in this one. DeMar isn’t really an off-ball guy and he should see a lot of Ben Simmons, and his minutes may also be coming down a tad. Dejounte was excellent on the ball on Sunday with a variety of ways to score, and he kept his fouls down after getting in trouble there on Friday. DeMar is clearly OK with letting him run the offense for most of the game, and Dejounte has really produced on the stat sheet when he comes back in after subs to get some non-White and DeMar minutes. The Spurs also really praised Drew Eubanks after Sunday, and he has likely earned his role as Jakob’s backup. If Poeltl gets in foul trouble (likely?), Eubanks could be on the board.
You probably saw Shake and Embiid get into it on Saturday, but don’t let that affect how you project Shake’s minutes. Embiid was one of the first people to get on the Shake PG bandwagon, so expect him to get his normal role. As for Embiid, nothing really needs to be said here. He looked awesome in 34 minutes with his 36.7 usage rate at a 105.8 pace (top 10 for him this season among games with more than 16 minutes). Nobody can guard that man when he’s healthy. Tobias is going to have an undersized defender on him here, so he could really do some damage in the halfcourt.
Matchup Helps: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris
Matchup Hurts: DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz, 9:00 PM EDT
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Lakers 10th, Jazz 25th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Lakers 20th, Jazz 12th
Lakers expected starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Jazz expected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Injury news: LeBron James (groin), Anthony Davis (eye) and Kyle Kuzma are all probable; Royce O’Neale (foot) is also probable.
Lakers rotation notes: AD has seen 69% and 60% of his minutes at center in two games (39% on season), Kuzma had 9.5 minutes next to Bron and AD on Saturday (six in first game).
Jazz rotation notes: Super consistent in the scrimmages and in the first two games.
The Jazz have been driving machines so far at Disney with a whopping 63.5 per game, but the Lakers are good against drives on volume (bottom eight allowed among 30) and only points allowed off them. It’s very clear they want to get the ball downhill and into the paint to initiate their offense, but the Lakers likely won’t present a great opportunity for them after Kawhi Leonard’s 20 drives resulted in a sub-30 FG% on his shots. Jordan Clarkson has been chucking up jumpers so far with 23 of them in two games, but he’s made just seven. He gets a revenge game and he has a team-leading 30.8 usage rate in the last two.
A lot of people just assume the Jazz have a good defense because of Gobert, but they really looked disjointed in the first two once there’s offensive action going on. For each of the two games, they’ve had perimeter players penetrate into the paint to cause their D to collapse or get buckets. So, yeah, LeBron could really feast. Matchup wise, it does kind of make sense to put Ingles on him and let Royce try to handle AD, but regardless it sets up AD and LeBron for a dream matchup. AD somehow had a 13 usage rate against the Raptors, so he’s likely looking forward to this bounce-back opportunity more than a trip to the locker room.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kyle Kuzma
Matchup Hurts: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert
