We have finally reached the second round across the league. It’s a bit unusual that we’re in Game 3, and we get a No. 2 seed already in a 2-0 hole when the other No. 2 seed is very likely to smash. We’ll be talking about the Western Conference second round on a pod a little later today, so be on the lookout for that. As usual, I went a little deeper in the Game 1 action. The Clippers opened at -5.5, and it increased to -8.5.
Toronto Raptors (-1) vs. Boston Celtics, 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Raptors 107.5, Celtics 106.5
Injury News: Oshae Brissett, Patrick McCaw and Gordon Hayward remain out.
Raptors Expected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka (note: Going out on a limb here because Marc Gasol has been bad)
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
Raptors Rotation Notes: Coach Nick Nurse might get a bit wild here for Game 3 (explain on a couple points below).
Celtics Rotation Notes: Robert Williams is locked in as backup C (looked great), more Grant Williams (all PF in Game 2 after some spot C minutes in Game 1), Wanamaker went away in Game 2 after big minutes in Game 1.
*Jayson Tatum just looked like a superstar with 34 points in Game 2 and coach Brad Stevens really talked about it after the win. “When he caught the ball he went right to what he was trying to get to,” said Brad Stevens. “That was a big part of him being able to score the ball tonight.” Shot distribution wise, Tatum didn’t exactly thrive with only three makes at the rim (seven attempts), and Tatum’s eight FGMs were highly tied to how the Raptors defended him. He was 1-of-8 on contested shots, but he was 7-of-9 on uncontested shots. In Game 1, he was 4-of-8 on contested and 5-of-10 on uncontested. Looking at the matchup data, there wasn’t too much of a difference on who was guarding him with Lowry leading in both games, and O.G. behind him in both. The obvious part of it is Tatum getting to the line 14 times, making a career-high 14 for any game. As you’d expect, Tatum getting double-digit makes at the line has led to an average of 34.8 points per game in four games this season and playoffs. The quiet first game was more about other guys getting hot around him, and he might repeat with another monster today because he’s just that good.
*After taking away good shots from VanVleet in Game 1, FVV failed to hit shots he makes with an 0-of-5 on wide-open treys in Game 2 (1-of-2 wide open in Game 1). The Raptors in general just can’t make open shots, making just 9-of-35 wide-open treys in this series. FVV continues to struggle when it’s not very early in the shot clock, making just 4-of-22 from the field on shots with under 18 seconds left on the shot clock (70 eFG% on his 10 shots with 18-24 seconds left). He’s struggled with Boston all series, but he should have a little more luck on his side in halfcourt scoring. It’s still going to be tough.
*FVV has nothing on Lowry when it comes to being cold as a shooter. Lowry is just 3-of-14 on jumpers in this series. He missed all six of his uncontested shots in Game 2 (2-of-5 in Game 1), and he’s seen his opportunities in transition get cut. It’s been a tough go against Jayson Tatum, but the production isn’t matching his shot quality and he’s not getting pieces of offense he hangs his hat on.
*Norman Powell was a colossal bust with four points in 13 minutes in Game 2. He lit up the Nets’ “defense” in the first round, but that doesn’t even really count, right? Powell struggled on the defensive end in the seeding games, and he didn’t fare well against the Celtics in his two regular season games against them. If Powell can’t get out in transition, I’d be very nervous to use him, and he might lose minutes to Terence Davis II, Matt Thomas or Chris Boucher.
*Adding to the Powell part, coach Nick Nurse might get crazy with Siakam. Back in the seeding games and in July practice, he was toying with some jumbo lineups that had Siakam as a PG. He’s just not being used in a variety of ways like he usually does, and the struggles of the guards could get him more involved. Still, it’s just missed shots.
Matchup Helps: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Serge Ibaka, Robert Williams
Matchup Hurts: Kemba Walker, Fred VanVleet, Marc Gasol
Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers (-8.5), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Nuggets 107.3, Clippers 115.8
Injury News: Patrick Beverley (calf) is questionable, but is expected to play
Defensive Ranking: Nuggets 16th, Clippers 5th
Pace Ranks: Nuggets 29th, Clippers 8th
Season Series: Clippers 2-1
Key Missing Players in Series: Paul George (1 missed), Patrick Beverley (1), Montrezl Harrell (1), Marcus Morris (1), Paul Millsap (1), Gary Harris (1)
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Clippers Expected Starters: Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Nuggets Player Notes
*The Nuggets have to be tired, especially Jamal Murray at 266 minutes and Nikola Jokic at 263 minutes in the first round. When Murray was on ESPN after the Game 7 win, he was surprised that he only gets Wednesday off before Game 1 today (pretty funny, if you missed it here). SVP basically Lumbergh’d him. Yeah. Hello, Jamal. What’s happening? Yeah, we’re going to need you to come in on Thursday. That’d be great.
*We saw the Clippers finally start to trap Luka Doncic in Game 5, and it led to two easy wins. The Jazz were finally trapping Jamal Murray more often in Game 7, and chances are that’ll happen more often even with Patrick Beverley set to play today. In a couple games against Beverley, Murray wasn’t very productive with seven points and no dimes in 22.2 partial possessions. Looking at just the time on the floor against Beverley, in 47 minutes Murray put up just 13 points, five boards, three dimes, four turnovers, one steal and one 3-pointer on a 19.8 usage rate and a 37.8 TS% (30.0 eFG%). Not great, Bob. Murray is also likely to see a lot of Kawhi, and he won’t be able to get around him as easily as he did against guys like Royce O’Neale, etc. Assuming the Clippers can adjust off their drop PNR coverage they used on Luka, closing out on the Blue Arrow triple attempts. Murray is very likely to guard Beverley, so at least he won’t have to exert much energy on that end.
*We saw Gary Harris get some late run, and he was guarding Donovan Mitchell down the stretch, and he shut him down big time. Harris played the final 17 minutes on Tuesday, so it would appear he’s healthy. Harris isn’t really someone you’d be counting on for offense, but at least the minutes should be there to guard Paul George. Harris’ defense may have won Denver the series. Mike Malone even said the Nuggets “don’t win [Game 7] without Gary” after the win. “His defense, his containment, his one-on-one pride, is outstanding,” Malone said.
*Going back to before the postseason started, coach Mike Malone really talked up how Jerami Grant will make an impact. “Jerami’s role is going to be more pronounced as we move into the postseason,” Malone said back on Aug. 12. Back in July, Malone was saying he was using Grant as a three as an experiment, and it’s fair to say that worked because how much Grant was used even when he was guarding Mitchell a bunch. Back in the seeding games, Grant guarded Kawhi a lot and he guarded him a bunch prior to the shutdown. Nobody is going to be able to stop Kawhi, but Grant makes the most sense.
*Nikola Jokic goes from a tough matchup to a much more favorable one. He was productive in 61 minutes against Zubac, posting a per-36 line of 27/10/7 on a 28.1 usage rate and a 68.9 TS%. He only has a 16-minute sample on Harrell at a per-36 line of 21/25/7 on a 24.2 usage rate and a 58.9 TS%. As the Jazz were able to take away Murray in Game 7, we saw a much more involved Jokic with 5.5 minutes of touch time, up a full minute from the first six games in similar playing time (1.4 minutes above average). With Murray possibly locked up, Jokic is going to have to really feast to keep the Nuggets alive.
*The Nuggets role players are in an interesting spot. It’s fairly obvious that Paul Millsap shouldn’t be starting, but coach Mike Malone has basically stuck with it because the Nuggets won with it for three straight games. You’d think Millsap probably starts here, but he’s going to be on a short leash, especially with Michael Porter Jr. really playing better. MPJ could be sneaky. Monte Morris should see a really big hit because of Harris’ defensive impact.
Clippers Player Notes
*Kawhi is just unfair. Maxi Kleber was defending him pretty well overall for most of the Dallas series, and he just took over late when the Mavs were forced to go smaller on him. Kawhi destroyed the Mavs on PNR at a 1.42 points per possession (PPP) for 10.7 points per game. The Nuggets just got lit up on PNR all day and Malone even talked about the Jazz running 100 PNRs on them per game because it was so effective. As great as Kawhi was in the first round, it wasn’t like he totally crushed at a 52.2 eFG% on his 90 jumpers, which is close to the 49.6 on the season. Where he really smashed was in the paint, making 72.1% of his 61 attempts (55.9% on the season). The Nuggets won’t be able to keep him out of the paint again and he should smash again. Coach Doc Rivers knows who his alpha is after the series win. “You could tell he was the one guy that’s used to closing out a series,” Rivers said about Leonard.
*Paul George scored an easy 25.5 points per game in two games against the Nuggets thanks to going 10-of-17 from deep (58.8%). In the last series, George finally felt comfortable getting to the basket more with more drives per minute and three-plus dribbles, and coach Doc Rivers basically stuck to his word that he wanted to get PG 20 shots. This is a much tougher matchup for him against Gary Harris, and he’ll be leaning more on his shooting. On the plus side, the time off likely helped his shoulder.
*Lou Williams is actually more productive per possession than Kawhi on PNR in the playoffs. He had a tough time finding the court consistently because coach Doc Rivers said he didn’t want to play him next to Landry Shamet or Reggie Jackson too much.
*As mentioned above, it makes a lot of sense to throw a bigger body like Zubac over Montrezl Harrell. Rivers has really praised Zubac for weeks now and talked about his confidence when the playoffs started and in the seeding games. Rivers also said he’s the team’s lone rim protector, so he’ll be needed here. Zu also has some good numbers on Jokic with a per-36 line of 18/16/2 in a 61-minute sample.
*Besides Marcus Morris, the role players really shouldn’t be making much of an impact. The Clippers really can’t get away from the non-center lineups like they did against the floor-spacing Mavericks, so there aren’t enough minutes to go around for the non-Lou bench guys.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams, Paul George, Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris
Matchup Hurts: Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap
