GPP Leverage: Week 4

Welcome back to GPP Leverage, everyone! I hope the season continues to be fruitful for you all as it did for many of ETR’s own in Week 3. We’re going to have a bit of an abbreviated column this week, as I am traveling for a wedding, but I for sure wanted to touch on what last week looked like and hit a couple of points for this coming slate, which seems like a challenging one for GPP players.

Take a look at last week’s perfect lineup:

Obviously one main thing that jumps out here is not only the fact that we had three Dolphins skill-position players without Tua, but we also had two RBs from the same team. I suppose these types of anomalies are possible when a team scores 70 points, but I would not look into this in any way, and I would certainly continue to not play multiple running backs from the same team on a main slate. If there’s anything to take away from this, it’s the fact that we have to be taking the Dolphins’ offense very, very seriously every week.

Justin Herbert finally eclipsed that 30 DraftKings-point mark I had been referencing. He hadn’t done that since Week 18 of 2021. Hopefully he can keep this going. I very much believe in the Chargers’ offense, however, they do want to be run-heavy it seems in neutral or positive game environments, something I fear can happen this week if Jimmy G can’t go on the other side of their matchup with Vegas.

There was no bring-back needed from Minnesota, but a Herbert skinny stack or double stack was more than viable, once again proving that these super attractive game environments do usually have a piece that is needed even if the game goes under. (This one went slightly under at 52 points.)

Cheap WR volume continues to be needed early on in the season, as two guys that were on last week’s list were optimal in Tank Dell and Adam Thielen. Be sure to reference that article that I update throughout the weekend leading up to lock.

Lastly, the chalky defense hit in a big way with Buffalo scoring a monstrous 32 points, creating a true “if you don’t have them, you don’t win” play. Those types of hits are frustrating to me, but I am going to start considering looking at defensive projections in a different way. I’m still of the belief that defensive scoring is so highly variant that I don’t want to play chalk, but I understand that the sims are showing that that isn’t necessarily the case. When there is an outlier projection on a defense in a great matchup, perhaps it’s okay to lean into that chalk.

On to Week 4…

This is a tough week to parse through. If you know me, you know I like to try to keep my player pool rather condensed, and I do that by asking one simple question: “Can this player be in the perfect lineup this week?” If the answer is no, I tend to eliminate them from my player pool. Still sitting with a 12-game main slate, and tons of potentially big spots, this is one of those weeks you can see many, many answers to that question.

For this week, I’m going to quickly go through each game for some quick takeaways and leverage points.

Dolphins @ Bills

• The obvious game to start with is the one that closely mirrors last week’s Vikings-Chargers contest — Bills at Dolphins with a 53.5 O/U and a 2.5-point spread. I want a piece of this game in most lineups, and it’s easier to get contrarian with this one given how tight pricing is across the whole slate. Ultimately, this is a pay-up-to-be-contrarian slate, so while this is the clear top environment of the week, guys like Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill won’t be as owned as maybe they should be.
• Tua is the clear pivot in this game, similar to Justin Herbert vs. Kirk Cousins last week. Tua is currently projecting for 2.6% large-field ownership versus Josh Allen’s 10.4%. The difference here is that Allen is the player with the higher ceiling, while I always thought Herbert’s ceiling was higher than Cousins, despite projections saying they were the same. Yet, still, Tua has proven to have a very high ceiling this season and Miami’s offense is clearly one to invest in. I have no problems leaning heavily into Dolphins stacks and saving the $800 from Allen.
• Hill and Diggs are both looking at ownership between 15 and 20 percent, which seems fine for their ceilings, and I probably want one of these players in most of my game stacks. However, I like the idea of getting exposure that keeps my ownership down. Something like a Tua-Waddle-Diggs stack will not be very popular. No one wants to play Jaylen Waddle this week at $7,600 and returning from an injury, but he seems like a fantastic way to get high-ceiling exposure to this game.
• Given the tight nature of the slate and his increased price tag of $6,500, Raheem Mostert is only projecting for 4.2% large-field ownership as of Friday night.
• Overall, the Buffalo side is looking at more ownership with Diggs, Allen, James Cook, and Dalton Kincaid all sitting at 10% or more. If I’m going to play into that, I prefer to do it on the high-ceiling plays of Diggs and Allen. Cook is fine given his efficiency and role to start the season. Kincaid feels like more of a cash-game option; I prefer Dawson Knox as a double-stack partner if it means less ownership.
• Once again, Gabe Davis is a fantastic GPP play projecting for no ownership.
• This is definitely a spot where you should boost the defenses in any lineups that are fading this game.

Bucs @ Saints