Best Ball Game Theory: Can We Draft Extreme Risers Like Jonathon Brooks?

One of the most important but under-discussed edges in best ball is learning how to treat players whose ADPs rise or fall over the course of draft season. Every summer, we see dozens of players climb multiple rounds or slip down the board. Examples this year include Jonathon Brooks, who was a Round 11 running back in May and is now going in Round 7. Or Stefon Diggs, who sat in Round 14 for most of the spring and has climbed all the way to Round 9 since signing with Washington.

Our instinct is to focus only on figuring out where to shift a player’s ranking when a substantial part of the edge comes from understanding what those moves mean in the context of the contest you’re playing.

This article breaks down how to evaluate risers and fallers, why their movement matters more in large summer-long tournaments, and how you can use them to gain leverage in the best ball playoffs. This is about game theory, not player takes.

Contest Structure Shapes Strategy

The first question is: What type of contest are you drafting in?

• Time-boxed contests (short windows, small fields) — If a tournament fills in a couple of weeks, everyone is drafting under the same conditions. There’s no history of people getting drastically different prices on players. In these contests, ADP movement doesn’t really matter. Just use traditional best ball concepts that I’ve described in this On The Clock article.
• Large summer-long contests (Underdog’s Best Ball Mania, DraftKings’ best ball tournaments, and similar) — Here’s where ADP movement becomes a huge deal. These contests run for months, which means the same player may have been a 14th-round pick in May, a 10th-rounder in July, and a seventh-rounder in August. When the playoffs arrive, your team is no longer just competing against its draft room; it’s competing against every roster built across the summer. That’s why it’s critical to evaluate not only a player’s talent, but also how they’ve been priced for other drafters across the season.

Evaluating Risers and Fallers

When looking at ADP movement, two key questions should always be asked:

• How much did they move?
• Where in the draft did that movement occur?

The answers dictate whether you’re looking at a minor adjustment or a fundamental shift in playoff leverage.

Earlier ADP Movement = More Impactful

The earlier in a draft an ADP shift occurs, the more significant the ripple effects. There are two main reasons for this:

• Draft Capital — When a player climbs from Round 11 to Round 7, like Jonathon Brooks has this summer, you’re now drafting him at a premium price compared to thousands of teams that got him four rounds cheaper. Those other rosters essentially have extra rounds of capital to work with, putting you at a disadvantage in the playoff rounds. The reverse is also true: If a player falls several rounds, drafting him later gives you a built-in edge, since your playoff opponents invested more capital for the same player.
• Unique Early-Round Pairings — At the very top of drafts, even small ADP shifts can reshape roster construction. A player moving a few picks in the first or second round unlocks new combinations that weren’t available earlier in the contest. Sliding down the board creates rare and discounted pairings, while rising into a new tier can still provide value through uniqueness, since a player now stacks with different early-round players.

The bottom line: ADP shifts in the early and middle rounds matter far more than late-round movement. They not only dictate how much draft capital is tied up in a player, but also influence the uniqueness of your roster build in ways the back half of drafts can’t replicate.

Two Early Movers: Malik Nabers and A.J. Brown