Large-Field GPP Breakdown: John Deere Classic

If you’re not excited about this week’s John Deere Classic, I don’t know what to tell you. Playing the Signature Event Travelers Championship right after the U.S. Open just never feels right, and admittedly I had a bit of fatigue last week, as I didn’t want to play a no-cut event. But with DFS, there’s always money to be made (or lost), and I certainly was on the losing side. But there were plenty of subscribers who made it to the second round of the FGWC for this week, and we simply love to see it.

Travelers Championship – Recap

Luckily, I wasn’t in the country to play R3 or R4, because I got obliterated on last weekend’s slate. A playoff between two guys I had a full fade on (Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland) is always going to be a bad thing. As I mentioned in Sky’s AMA channel last week, I found it surprising that Hovland was 10% owned at his price, given that he has shown no flashes of competency this year outside of a couple of tournaments. Meanwhile, some players are having better years all around him but taking on the same or less ownership. Unfortunately, the people that paid for a ceiling on Hovland knew this would be the week, as he beat Scottie in a playoff. Hovland was able to be played with Scheffler lineups as well, meaning it was a double whammy of death for me, and I barely cashed any entries in the lotto. Yes, it was that bad. Let’s take a look at the lotto winner:

• It featured a lineup that actually did NOT have Scheffler, instead benefiting from a great Sunday from Collin Morikawa. The lineup went 10/9/8/7/7/6 and was unique. Let’s add this to the information bank of $13K Scottie tournaments where, again, Scheffler was not necessary for the winner despite finishing in second place.
• The lineup came in at a cumulative ownership of 71%, just within that 70-90% range I look for in Signature Events. There was a comment by Discord fluid enthusiast JTCapSnake that it was very hard to get close to 90% ownership last week, which was true. These weeks where ownership is very spread out are often tough to get leverage on an individual player basis, and that’s why they are usually my least favorite weeks. In the future, I’ll adjust my cumulative ownership range down when the ownership is a bit more spread out like that.

One interesting thing to note from the Travelers is Matt Fitzpatrick making the winning lineup. He’s arguably been a top-three player on the year and has the most wins on the PGA Tour so far. For him to be the lowest-owned player in the $9K+ range seems a bit ridiculous on a course that doesn’t really present a tough challenge. Admittedly, I was swayed by industry projections and our projections into thinking he was a bad play, and I did not have enough of him. Shame on me, and I will learn from that. 

John Deere Classic – Preview