Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
Season-long player props are even softer. Books often don’t account for downside scenarios enough. In other words, over the course of a season injuries, rest, benchings all come into play. We can exploit that by leaning heavily toward unders.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks, it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL Season-Long Record: 7-2, +$454
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118, +$8,572
2021 NFL Season-Long Record: 27-6, +$2,028
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 746-494, +$19,948 (through May 31)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Jahan Dotson receiving yards
Line: 709.5 yards
Projection: 671.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (If you don’t have an account yet, click here for best signup bonus offers by state)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: May 23
Notes: We love Dotson’s draft capital… but that’s about it. He will almost certainly be behind Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas for targets. On top of that, Curtis Samuel is healthy and JD McKissic is one of the league’s best pass-catching backs. Our projection assumes 17 games of health for Dotson, making the under a no-brainer.
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