The best season-long players are continually attacking the waiver wire and churning through their roster. That’s especially true early in the season, when we learn so much about roles.
With that in mind, we want to prioritize upside over everything else with our later-round picks. If it doesn’t work out, we can simply drop them for the inevitable high-quality options that will be on the waiver wire come September. Note that is very different from best ball, where we are stuck with them all season.
Here are my favorite targets with an Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP) of 120.0 or later as of Aug. 13. Players I like such as James Cook, Brian Robinson, Zach Charbonnet, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith all go too high to be considered a “flier”.
These are listed in ADP order, but please consult your league’s specific draft applet to understand more about where they will go.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills – Underdog ADP 122.5
The Bills knew they desperately needed to get Josh Allen more weapons. But the free-agent wide receiver class and the draft wide receiver class were both weak. So they traded up for Dalton Kincaid at No. 25 overall.
Although the 6-foot-4, 240-pound Kincaid is listed at tight end, that is not the traditional role he will play. I expect the Bills’ primary formation to be “11.5”, which means one RB (James Cook), two WRs (Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis), one TE (Dawson Knox), and one TE/WR hybrid (Kincaid). It’s the role Kincaid played in college, going for 70-890-8 in 12 games at Utah.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers – Underdog ADP 124.2
Najee Harris remains the clear starter in my opinion. But Warren is more explosive and will force his way onto the field for at least 30% of the RB touches. That number could very well grow as the season moves along. Najee has the Round 1 draft capital, but he’s in Year 3 now and the Steelers can start to phase him out some. First-team RB snaps through two preseason games are Harris 9, Warren 8.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams – Underdog ADP 142.0
Matthew Stafford (elbow) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) are both back. But beyond Kupp, there is no one on the roster with any history of earning targets.
Enter Higbee, who has averaged 6.0 targets per game over the last two seasons. He also projects to play 90+% of the snaps, as Sean McVay prefers to run static personnel/formations throughout games/seasons. And with Stafford back and looking healthy, there is room for an efficiency spike from Higbee.
Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos – Underdog ADP 147.1
The seas are parting for Mims. Tim Patrick (Achilles) and K.J. Hamler (pectoral, heart) are both done, handing Mims the No. 3 wide receiver job on a platter. And now Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) is in major doubt for Week 1. That’s likely fine by Sean Payton, who traded up for Mims at No. 63 overall with his first pick in his first-ever draft in charge of the Broncos. Even though they appeared to be covered at wide receiver with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Hamler, and Patrick, and a WR/TE hybrid in Greg Dulcich. There were also trade rumors around Sutton this offseason; it’s not out of the question Mims can ascend to the No. 2 WR spot before the year is over.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins – Underdog ADP 158.2
De’Von Achane goes around 113 overall, so he doesn’t meet the threshold for this exercise. That said, I expect Mostert and Jeff Wilson (also a fine pick at an ADP of 176.5) to be the main backs — especially in base sets. Achane projects for a satellite role at first and then should ramp up later in the season.
But in the meantime, a healthy Mostert is an efficient one — he is at 5.4 YPC for his career on 465 carries. Expect him and Wilson to share the RB work relatively evenly to start the season, with Mostert getting the slight edge on efficiency.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles – Underdog ADP 166.5
The Eagles are barely paying Rashaad Penny anything. They hardly gave up anything to get D’Andre Swift. They’re both certainly more talented than Kenneth Gainwell, but one thing we know for sure about Gainwell is the Eagles trust him. With all the chips down in the playoffs and the Super Bowl, it was Gainwell getting 11.0 carries and 3.0 targets per game.
I think the most likely scenario is Gainwell operates as the backup to Penny on early downs, the backup to Swift on third downs, and then the feature back in 2- and 4-minute drills. But there’s upside for more there if things break right. Taking cheap shots on a talented RB in the game’s best rushing offense is something I want to do.
Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots – Underdog ADP 200.9
There are a ton of viable starting tight ends available very late. Jake Ferguson, Tyler Conklin, Luke Musgrave, Cade Otton and Trey McBride are all effectively free. Sam LaPorta will go late.
But my favorite of the group is Henry, who is still in the prime for a tight end at age 28 and has always been long on natural talent. With Jonnu Smith gone and Mike Gesicki a mere off-line finesse player, expect an every-down and red-zone role for Henry. The Patriots have the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, which will lead to a spike in pass rate. And going from effectively no offensive coordinator to Bill O’Brien is a substantial upgrade.
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders – Underdog ADP 199.2
Howell is a primary target in 2-QB leagues. He has some rushing upside — he posted 183-828-11 as a runner in his final season at North Carolina (2021). Howell started one game as a rookie for the Commanders last season and accumulated 5-35-1 rushing.
On top of that, Howell can be dragged along as a passer by his weaponry. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are a sneaky strong duo. Curtis Samuel is an excellent WR3, Antonio Gibson is an elite pass-catching back, and Logan Thomas/Cole Turner is fine at tight end.
The fantasy football community has certainly gotten better at understanding the floor that a rushing QB brings. But we still got things like Round 6/7 Jalen Hurts and Round 11/12 Daniel Jones last season. And this year we get free Howell, plus a later-round Anthony Richardson, and a still-too-cheap Jones.
HONORABLE MENTION
Zay Jones, WR, Jaguars – The addition of Calvin Ridley is a big blow to Zay’s target upside. But he’s currently playing in 2-WR sets over Christian Kirk and the price is cheap.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers – Reed has already won the slot job in 3-WR sets for the new-look Packers.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Commanders – Expect 1-2 gadgety plays designed for Samuel per game. And he’s locked into the WR3 role.
Gerald Everett, TE, Chargers – Always long on athleticism, Everett now gets Kellen Moore to create the best opportunity of his career.
Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers – Purdy’s elbow is a non-issue at this point. His efficiency is sustainable because of Kyle Shanahan and the NFL’s best group of YAC weapons: Deebo, CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jaguars – I am not down on Travis Etienne as a runner. In his first season off the foot surgery, he was extremely explosive. That said, there are real concerns about Etienne as a pass catcher and in short-yardage situations.
Enter Bigsby, who caught 51 passes over his final two seasons at Auburn and is at least a threat for clear pass-down work. I’m not ready to write off Etienne as the goal-line back since last season’s disaster was a small sample. But we can’t ignore that Bigsby is a threat there as well — he entered the first preseason game specifically for a 3rd-and-1.
Note that Bigsby’s Underdog ADP has steamed to a point I’m not overly comfortable with him. But in home leagues, I’d expect him to go far later.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Bears — Look for the talented Roschon to be well ahead of D’Onta Foreman and slightly behind Khalil Herbert. If he hadn’t played behind Bijan Robinson at Texas, more people would be talking about him.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Titans — Expect expanded usage in Year 2 for the ultra-efficient Chig. Remember that he led all TEs last year with an outrageous 2.61 yards per route run.
