Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks, it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. There could also be better lines out there than what I have available. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line.
I made these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook at 7:15pm ET on Friday September 6.
YTD Record: 0-0
1. Miles Sanders Rushing Yards
Line: 31.5
Projection: 45.7
Bet: Over (-115)
Notes: We know Sanders is going to share the RB carries with Jordan Howard, but the 31.5 rushing yard line suggests the rookie is the lesser part of that committee. I don’t think that will be the case. Sanders has dazzled throughout all of camp and preseason, at least earning an even share of the carries. And in a game the Eagles defense should dominate at home against a Redskins offense which I think will be among the worst in the NFL, we can project toward the top of the total team carry range. This is a case of us knowing more than the oddsmakers about player usage.
2. Robert Foster Receiving Yards
Line: 38.5
Projection: 17.9
Bet: Under (-134)
Notes: Someone got to this one before I could as I had to lay -134. But I still bet it because there’s a good chance Foster plays single-digit snaps in this game. Throughout the preseason, Foster never threatened the top-3 of John Brown, Zay Jones and Cole Beasley. He even ran as the No. 5 WR at times. This line simply does not understand Foster’s place on the depth chart. It’s a good example of spots where as fantasy players who tracked preseason usage hard, we know more than the oddsmakers. They are mostly going off last year’s stats.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Yards
Line: 240.5
Projection: 184.7
Bet: Under (-115)
Notes: Fitzpatrick’s line is likely fueled by his recent history with the Bucs, when he averaged 247.7 pass yards per game. Now in Miami however, Fitzpatrick doesn’t have Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, or even Cam Brate. He also doesn’t have Todd MFin Monken calling plays. Instead, Fitzpatrick is dealing with one of the league’s worst offensive lines and overall talent pools in the league. And he’s facing the Ravens. This line does not reflect Fitz’s current situation.
4. Andy Dalton Passing Yards
Line: 240.5
Projection: 216.9
Bet: Under (-115)
Notes: Going to Seattle is a tall task for anyone. It’s especially tall for Dalton, who will go without star WR AJ Green, LT Cordy Glenn and first-round T Jonah Williams. Facing a Seattle team highly likely to take the air out of the ball and depress opponent plays, Dalton’s chances project to be limited. Similar to the Eli Manning situation below, when our projection aligns well with an under bet, it’s typically worth playing.
5. Eli Manning Passing Yards
Line: 260.5
Projection: 237.2
Bet: Under (-115)
Notes: A chance to bet against Eli is one I’ll typically take. It’s also a nod to a Cowboys defense which I believe is far better than the market perceives. As Silva noted in Matchups, Eli has averaged just 238 pass yards per game in his last six against Dallas’ zone scheme. But most importantly, leaning unders on plays is where I want to be as we build in a bit of equity for injury/benching.
