I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a very small slate. Not only were there only eight games, but six of them had either very low totals or weather concerns. It was another week in which I thought nailing the right three WRs would be the difference.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* It was a perfect storm for Bucky Irving. He was facing the Panthers, easily our best RB matchup in DvP data. Rachaad White also committed a back-breaking fumble in Week 16, leaving upside for Bucky on top of his base workload. And the Bucs had everything to play for as they fought for their playoff lives. Bucky was our top salary-adjusted play (at any position) in projections.
* Tyjae Spears already had the pass-down and two-minute drill role for the Titans. With Tony Pollard (ankle) finally sitting a game out, we could project Spears for base and goal-line work as well. At just $5400, this is not the archetype of back I fade in cash: An explosive player whose calling card is in the pass game and is suddenly going to see a role expansion.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered four RBs for cash: The two “musts” above plus Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones. I thought Jones was in a standard spot, nothing new or special about it – he was simply a bit too cheap and in the right projected game environment. He was solid.
Barkley, however, did have a role change with Jalen Hurts (concussion) out. We could project him for more rushing TDs and a gameplan completely focused around him. We also had the narrative of Saquon chasing both 2,000 rushing yards and Eric Dickerson’s record, in a pristine matchup home vs. Cowboys.
* I only considered two QBs for cash: Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold. I would have been happy to go to Flacco if it got me from Dontayvion Wicks to Brian Thomas Jr. or Mike Evans. But the $1500 wasn’t enough. So I didn’t want to force Flacco in a spot I expected the Colts to control the game with Jonathan Taylor + Drew Lock mistakes.
* Regular readers know I’m typically trying to spend as little at tight end as possible. That was especially true on this slate, as the other options all had holes. Chig Okonkwo had popped up as a garbage-time merchant, Jake Ferguson’s routes were down in Week 16, and TJ Hockenson was a bit pricy at $4500.
So I was fine to punt it off with Payne Durham, who ran 88% of the routes with Cade Otton out in Week 16. Durham was also a reliable pass-catcher at Purdue, and he was facing the Panthers here. So much of tight end scoring is tied up in touchdowns, so getting one at $2900 for a team likely to be among the slate leaders in TDs was nice.
* I would have been fine with either Browns ($2400) against Tyler Huntley, or Raiders ($2600) against Spencer Rattler. The Saints are effectively fielding a JV team at this point.
I didn’t think it was necessary to get up to Colts ($3500) against Drew Lock, Eagles ($3100) against Cooper Rush, or Dolphins ($3200) against Dorian Thompson-Robinson. But they were all certainly in play.
* I had six wide receivers on my list for cash: Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and Dontayvion Wicks. I actually felt strongest about Downs, but didn’t think any of these WRs were musts. So I simply played the trio that fit. Wicks, with Christian Watson out, had a path to an every-down role in a strong game environment at just $3900. And Downs was priced as if inept thrower Anthony Richardson was starting, even though it would be chucker Joe Flacco. I felt fine with the ceiling combo at those price tags.
Week 17 Results
Losing Tyjae Spears (concussion) early hurt some. But I ran hot to get 2-36-1 out of Payne Durham on just three targets. Of course, the big dagger was the WR situation. There were some teams I saw that didn’t have either of Saquon or Justin Jefferson, but got up to Brian Thomas and Mike Evans. Perhaps going that more balanced route to access more solid WR play was right.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 93.14 points, won 28.2% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 173.16 points, won 96.3% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 170.86 points, won 65.2% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 117.92 points, won 66.1% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 133.00 points, won 81.5% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 145.08 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 116.88 points, won 10.5% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 201.38 points, won 93.1% of head-to-heads
Week 15 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 16 DraftKings: 123.28 points, won 31.4% of head-to-heads
Week 17 DraftKings: 144.28 points, won 36.2% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 100.04 points, won 65.0% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 122.36 points, won 70.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 132.1 points, won 52.0% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 108.82 ponts, won 60.9% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 112.58 points, won 29.0% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 120.56 points, won 47.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 136.2 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 186.08 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 15 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 16 FanDuel: 151.38 points, won 90.5% of head-to-heads
Week 17 FanDuel: Did not play
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
