I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
The story of this week was running back. There were at least eight of them on DK I considered for cash, which is extremely rare. On a thinner RB week, I would have just played the injury values (Chuba Hubbard & D’Onta Foreman) and moved on. But there was so much opportunity cost at the position this week, making things difficult.
MY MUST PLAYS
* With De’Von Achane (knee) out, Raheem Mostert had a clear path to the feature back role. I didn’t think Mostert would be a 20-25 touch RB even with Achane out, but that doesn’t matter too much when you play for the Dolphins. Mostert was a near-lock for efficiency and touchdown opportunities in a home game against the Panthers. He was around $1000 underpriced.
* On most slates, Christian Kirk would’ve been more of a “want” than a “must”. But on this slate, the wide receiver pool was quite thin in the low- and mid-range. With Zay Jones (knee) out and an ideal pace/matchup against the Colts, Kirk was the key to the kind of build I wanted to play. We actually had Kirk projected for the exact same amount of points as Calvin Ridley… but Kirk was $1300 cheaper.
* Ja’Marr Chase was certainly weaker this week than last. Tee Higgins (rib) was back and the matchup against Seattle was far more difficult. Still, Burrow’s return to health and the shotgun-laden quick throws are a dream for Chase. We projected Chase for 11.4 targets, a very big number for one of the NFL’s best talents at $8300.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Kyren Williams would’ve been a must on a lot of slates. He’s the exact kind of running back I like to play – true three-down plus goal-line role with competent QB play and a home game against the leaky Cardinals. But the RB position was so absurdly deep on this slate, I would not have blamed anyone for going Alvin Kamara, Travis Etienne, or David Montgomery instead of Kyren.
* Obviously the 49ers, Eagles, and Dolphins defenses were all in excellent spots. But in cash, I am always trying to spend as little as possible at this spot. It’s difficult to get truly burned unless the expensive D/ST scores a touchdown, which is not predictable at all. I really only considered Bucs ($2300) and Lions ($2700) here, but would’ve been fine with Browns ($2200), Cardinals ($2400) or Bears ($2500) as well.
* I liked a bunch of tight ends this week, but thought they were all slightly overpriced: Jonnu Smith ($3400), Kyle Pitts ($3500), Logan Thomas ($3500), and Evan Engram ($4500) all had merit. Note that there was a clear 2v2 on this team – down from Justin Fields to Joe Burrow, up from Logan Thomas to Evan Engram. That was a very close call. In the end I thought Washington’s absurd throw rate combined with Thomas’ very strong role was right.
* The last 3v3 I looked at was Joe Burrow, Josh Downs, and Travis Etienne vs. Justin Fields, Adam Thielen, and D’Onta Foreman.
This was an incredibly close one. We had the Burrow side 0.8 points ahead in projection. In the end, I thought Fields’ chances of breaking a weak QB slate with his arm/legs combo was worth paying up for.
I also thought Downs’ ceiling was really limited, while Thielen’s role in a likely comeback mode was very strong. Obviously I would’ve loved to have Etienne’s explosive ability, but I didn’t think Foreman was that far behind in touch projection for $2700 less.
Week 6 Results
It’s hard to win when you lose your quarterback to injury. So for the second straight week (I played Anthony Richardson in Week 5), I knew I was in trouble as soon as Justin Fields went down. I ended up missing the cash line in DoubleUps by a very small amount, making it even more tilting.
That said, I certainly wish I could have some decisions back. I underestimated how much Darrynton Evans would play for the Bears, and the systemic risk in the Bears offense probably should’ve led me to Chuba Hubbard over D’Onta Foreman. We had Chuba projected for more base points anyway.
I also wish I had leaned into Kyle Pitts over Logan Thomas – obviously Pitts’ floor is roughly zero, but he’s getting true WR-style usage at just $3500 and had a very good matchup.
All in all, I am fine with the team. Considering the Foreman mistake and the Fields injury, I’m happy to escape relatively unscathed.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 107.62 points, won 5.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 140.22 points, won 49.1% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties
