It’s hard to believe we are already in Week 3, as the first couple of weeks of the season have been a blur. It seems like we were just wrapping up best ball, and now all of the sudden we are only a couple of weeks away from the first week of byes!
In prepping for this week, I tossed around a few different ideas for this article. The one theme I kept coming back to, though, regardless of which topic I chose, was that the first thing I had to get straight was the impact of all of the injuries for this week. There aren’t necessarily “more” injuries in Week 3, from a sheer-number standpoint. However, after the carnage of Week 2 (especially at QB), it seems pretty apparent that there are indeed more fantasy-relevant injuries than your average NFL week.
That basically translated into a bit of an “ah-ha” moment. While I really liked the other topics I was considering, the injuries themselves seemed like the most fitting macro topic for this week. First, the other topics I could kick down the road to a future week. Most of those topics will be better in a couple of weeks anyway, as we will have more data to draw from. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, if I were struggling a bit to put together all the pieces of the Week 3 injury puzzle, I’d bet that others may be as well.
Macro: Injuries and Role Changes
Just about anyone (I hope?) who has played DFS seriously has at least a general understanding that injuries can result in significant role changes. That may not be true in a sport like golf, but in other sports, such as the NFL, this often leads to certain players being mispriced. More specifically, certain players take on higher projections and thus become better values.
None of this is rocket science, obviously (again, I hope?), and for that reason, the Macro section will be a bit shorter than normal this week. I’d rather spend more time on the micro part, where we can actually apply the concepts of injury and role changes to this specific slate.
That said, I do want to point something out before leaving the Macro section this week. Often you can get a clear picture of the key injuries/role changes simply by looking at the projections. Clearly, that alone saves a great deal of time. I mean, let us do all the injury legwork for you, right? I don’t blame you. Typically, the projections can capture all of that.
This week may be a bit different, though. Sure, we can, and should, look at the projections, ownerships, injury reports, etc. However, I would argue that having a broader understanding of how some of these injuries affect the context of this slate is also important this week. This is particularly true with a couple of the injuries this week that could shake up projections quite a bit on Sunday depending on whether the player is in or out.
Micro: Key Injuries – Cash vs. GPP
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