NBA Matchups: October 21

ATL @ ORL | MIL @ WAS | MIN @ MIA | CHA @ BKN | CHI @ TOR | UTA @ MEM | IND @ NOP | DAL @ HOU | GSW @ LAL | PHX @ POR | SAC @ LAC

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Team Totals: Hawks 116, Magic 119.5

Injury Report: Anthony Black (O, ankle), Noah Penda (O, hamstring), Jonathan Isaac (O, knee)

Hawks projected starters: C.J. McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu

Magic projected starters: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

Snyder quotes: Said the preseason was a good time to get a feel for how they want to play, said they wanted to get to some go-to pieces for the final preseason game, said they’re still not sure on who starts/finishes and it may take time to figure it out.

Sweeney quotes: Said they were slow to adjust to Miami’s pace, said Richardson tweaked his ankle and Penda hurt his hamstring, said Vooch “has an offensive skill set” and they’ll use Goga/Vooch as they see fit behind WCJ.

Stats and Notes: 

*The Hawks had a huge finish to last season thanks to their defense ranking second after the break. Their defense should be excellent to start the year with Lu Dort in the fold, and they figure to be one of the toughest teams for lead handlers. The Hawks took excellent care of the ball in the preseason and were a top-four offense in the preseason because of their pace. The Hawks will use a lot of perimeter scoring and were bottom four in rim frequency last season. For the Magic, there will be some major changes to their defensive scheme. They’re picking up fullcourt a ton in the preseason, and presumably they will be helping off on defense much more than they did with Jamahl Mosley. It should be a good bit of drop from Wendell Carter Jr. with some at-the-level schemes. Whatever the scheme, coach Sean Sweeney should make this one of the better defenses in the league. The Orlando offense made some major changes with Franz Wagner being the lead handler, and their offense crushed this month, ranking third in the first half for O rating (second overall). 

*Nickeil Alexander-Walker had one of the most ridiculous post-break runs last year with his 23/3/4 line on 70 TS%, winning himself the Most Improved Player award. NAW was just a shade off that efficiency in his four preseason games at 67.3 TS% with his assists and 3PAs per 100 slightly up, too. Despite C.J. McCollum’s strong start in the NYK series, NAW should be viewed as the top guard scoring option, and opponents should be treating it that way. Last year against the Magic, it was a lot of Desmond Bane, and it should be a decent bit of it here. He crushed the Magic last year with a team-high 28.0 PPG in four games, and I like this spot a good bit for NAW.

*C.J. McCollum is going to bring the ball up, which means he’s going to be pressed a lot by Jalen Suggs. McCollum still possesses elite off-ball scoring, but I’d expect a slower start in this game.

*Jalen Johnson did see his post-break stats take a hit with the Hawks winning so many blowouts, and he had to share the ball more with McCollum (and a breaking-out NAW). His preseason assist rate also took a huge hit to just 5.9 per 100 compared to the absurd 10.4 he had last year. Johnson is at his best when he can run and get into the paint, which had been a strength of the Orlando defense at times. It’ll certainly be Paolo Banchero guarding him, and nobody guarded Johnson more than Paolo did last year. I like NAW more, but this is a favorable spot for Jalen.

*Onyeka Okongwu should be solid even in a matchup with Wendell Carter Jr. After his breakout jump-shooting year, the Hawks could use him more as a pick-and-pop option with the ball pressure from the Magic. He may not have enough upside on this slate, though.

*There’s a very good chance that the Magic just leave Dyson Daniels open the whole time. Daniels was shooting it in the preseason at 3.0 3-point attempts per game in 22.1 MPG, but he was terrible at 16.7%. It’s a tough click, but it could go great. It could also be a disaster.

*Franz Wagner’s shoulder will be something to watch here. He injured it at the end of the preseason, and he only did some light work in practice over the weekend. Franz was one of the biggest stories of the preseason, as the coaching change to Sweeney supercharged his offensive role as the primary handler. That led to his 15.1 assists per 100 (5.1 last year) being one of the biggest stats of the last two weeks. The role seems sticky, and this was talked about before we even saw the adjustment, so I’d expect that to stick. The bad news is that I’d expect Dyson Daniels to guard him along with Lu Dort. Franz was still quite good against the Hawks last year with a 19/4/2 line in 30 MPG. He’s solid.

*While Franz got the headlines, Paolo Banchero’s role was massive with a team-high 30.1% usage rate, and he was first in the preseason in FTA per 100 (among rotation locks). Sweeney seems to have emphasized that Paolo has to get to the basket more to draw contact, and he only took three mid-range attempts all preseason (7.3%; he was at 16.4% last year). If Franz is out or limited, Paolo will likely have a massive handling role because of spacing, and his matchup against Jalen Johnson is solid either way.

*Jalen Suggs is going to be important to the Magic winning, but it’s not something that may translate on the stat sheet. He’s been standing in the corner for most of the preseason, and he’s been picking up fullcourt. I do like this matchup for him, but the role is small.

*Desmond Bane shifted to more of a 3-point shooter in the preseason with 17.4 attempts per 100 (7.3 last year) to rank second among players expected to start (Fred VanVleet). Bane wasn’t on the ball all that much, but that’ll certainly change if Franz is limited. His matchup isn’t great with NAW likely guarding him, so I’m not too fired up against Bane off the bat. It’s a fine spot for Wendell Carter Jr., and Sweeney seems to trust him way more than Mosley did.

*If Franz can’t play, it should be a lot of Tristan da Silva firing away. Among rotation players, he was fourth in 3PA per 100 in the preseason.

Great matchups: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Paolo Banchero

Good matchups: Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr.

Bad matchups: C.J. McCollum