NBA Matchups: October 23

IND @ DET | BKN @ ATL | ORL @ MIA | MIL @ PHI | CLE @ TOR | CHA @ HOU | CHI @ NOP | MEM @ UTA | PHX @ LAC | GSW @ POR

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons

Team Totals:

Injury Report: Isaiah Jackson (Q, groin), Bobi Klintman (O, calf), Ausar Thompson (O, not cleared)

Pacers projected starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner

Pistons projected starters: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Tim Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren

Carlisle quotes: Said he has to make sure Ben Sheppard is appreciated.

Bickerstaff quotes: Said Bobi Klintman will be out to start the season, said it’s “unfortunate” that Ausar Thompson isn’t cleared.

Stats and Notes: 

*We love to attack Indiana games, and the early returns suggest we should do it again. There was some talk that the Pacers were not going to be a big rim funnel, but Indiana allowed the fifth-most rim points per game in the preseason. They also allowed the fifth-fewest C&S attempts per game, so we should fully expect this team to function the same. Love that. On offense, Indiana also lived around the basket, but somewhat shockingly the Pistons were the preseason’s best rim defense. I don’t think I’d buy that, but I do expect the Pistons to be better with Duren looking more active and Monty Williams no longer there. The Pistons’ defense did allow the third-most C&S attempts. The Pistons also did play slow on offense with the fourth-lowest possessions per game, which could be tied a bit to JB Bickerstaff (Cavs were always extremely slow). All this said, this should be a fantastic game to target, especially in Detroit to help the spread here. The Pacers match up extremely well with Detroit’s lack of shooting.

*Tyrese Haliburton should be looking at a very favorable matchup to start the season. He looks to be healthy this month and was right at 17.5 minutes in each of his last two first halves in the preseason. His usage was a little bit light in the preseason at 18.0, which is noteworthy, as his usage did take a hit once Pascal Siakam arrived (it could have also been tied to injury). Either way, we’ve seen this Pistons team get torched inside, and the Pacers will pile up rim points. Haliburton should have a ton of dimes while he should take it to Jaden Ivey all night.

*Pascal Siakam may be the biggest beneficiary from the new-look Pistons going from what was normally Isaiah Stewart to now Tobias Harris. That said, the most noteworthy thing from Siakam last season was Carlisle keeping his minutes down to just 31.8 per game from the 34.7 he played with the Raptors last season (37.4 two seasons ago). Siakam has routinely crushed weak rim defenses, and we should expect that to be the case against the Pistons despite what we’ve seen out of the preseason.

*Myles Turner gets an excellent matchup against Jalen Duren. We saw centers absolutely cook Duren, and Turner managed a 16/9/2 line in 26.4 minutes per game last season. Nobody behind Turner made a strong case to get minutes, so maybe Carlisle gives him slightly more run early in this season. Plus, the blocks should be there in a big way with the lack of shooting on the Pistons.

*After their top three, we know Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard will be there for their defensive roles, but the usage shouldn’t be there. Those two likely play enough to keep Bennedict Mathurin in check for minutes here. Jarace Walker should be in the rotation and has been fantastic, but he’s not an option on this big slate.

*Cade Cunningham was excellent to close out last year, but this time he will likely be getting a tough assignment as Andrew Nembhard picks him up. Cade was sixth in shots off drives after the break last year, and that’s an area where the Pacers can really give it up. We should not expect the Pacers to help off too much, so I wouldn’t sweat the matchup against Nembhard too much. Plus, Cade was second in the preseason for AST%, so he might be able to pile it up on there, too (min. 20 MPG).

*After Jaden Ivey’s excellent 1.27 PPP in the preseason, he likely runs into a bigger matchup in Aaron Nesmith (this is how the matchups went last year to close the year). Like Cade, the Pacers are unlikely to double him much, and the Pacers playing fast could really help Ivey. Transition was his main play type in the preseason, and Ivey also worked to tighten his shot this offseason. Most importantly, Bickerstaff has been staggering Ivey to add a big role in the Cade-less minutes — he will be on the court with some low-usage players in these minutes, too. He might take it to Nesmith right away.

*Jalen Duren should be a huge part of the offense. We’ve seen big rim volume allowed against the Pacers, and the Pistons playing a lot smaller should really bode well for his role as a rebounder and to perform well as the vertical threat. There’s some downside risk on Duren because Isaiah Stewart is one of the best backup Cs in the league, but this is a fantastic place to start.

*Tobias Harris should be a big part of the offense, and he gets a favorable matchup against Pascal Siakam. His usage should see a noticeable increase, and the Pistons not having Ausar Thompson should push his minutes up early. Nobody will want to play Tobias, but there’s a world where he pops off against an up-tempo team.

*The Pacers are excellent at limiting off-ball scoring, so I would not be looking to Tim Hardaway Jr.

Great matchups: Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton

Good matchups: Jalen Duren, Cade Cunningham, Pascal Siakam

Bad matchups: Tim Hardaway Jr.

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks