NFL Draft Winners and Losers

The NFL Draft is in the books. Let’s take a look at which veterans saw their fantasy value rise post-draft, as well as whose value suffered. We also have 20 brief articles detailing our thoughts on rookie landing spots for those looking for more rookie-centric analysis.

WINNERS

1. Gus Edwards – This offseason, the Chargers let Mike Williams go, traded Keenan Allen, signed Will Dissly, and drafted Joe Alt over Malik Nabers with the fifth overall selection. Jim Harbaugh‘s Chargers want to run the ball as much as possible, yet they didn’t draft a running back until Day 3 of the NFL Draft (Kimani Vidal). Vidal could eventually surpass Edwards as the RB1, so it’s a great spot for him too, but Edwards will have first crack at the job.
2. Zamir White – Raiders coaches have heaped praise upon White all offseason, and the draft was the biggest vote of confidence in him yet, as Las Vegas waited until the sixth round to draft Dylan Laube. Laube could challenge for pass-catching duties (along with Ameer Abdullah), but White currently looks like the no-questions-asked leader for carries. White recorded four straight games with at least 17 carries down the stretch in 2023, so this staff has leaned heavily on him before.
3. Joe Mixon – The Texans added only Jawhar Jordan as RB competition during the draft. That’s fantastic news for Mixon, who signed a three-year, $27 million contract with Houston this offseason. The Texans’ offense looks ridiculously loaded on paper with C.J. Stroud at the helm and Stefon Diggs now in the fold. Houston’s 12.6% target share to RBs in 2023 ranked second-to-last in the NFL, but Mixon should get plenty of carries (and goal-line opportunities) in an elite offense. Dameon Pierce fell completely out of favor with the HOU coaching staff; it’s possible he sees a resurgence after another offseason of development, but this looks like Mixon’s backfield at the moment.
4. Zack Moss and Chase Brown – Joe Burrow will be back for 2024, so the Cincinnati offense should once again be among the best in football. With Mixon gone and no RBs added in the draft, Moss and Brown will spearhead a backfield that has consistently been highly involved in the passing game (Mixon and Samaje Perine). Both backs should be involved; one of them could pull ahead during training camp or the season, but both should see their draft stock increase post-draft with the information we have now. Moss likely has the edge for goal-line work.
5. Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert – Michael Gallup is gone and the Cowboys’ most relevant pass-catching addition is Ryan Fluornoy. Dallas finished 2023 with 13 straight games with a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation; they realized Dak Prescott was their biggest strength and took full advantage. With no major RB additions, that could be the case again. Either CeeDee Lamb is going to flirt with 200 targets, or one of the secondary guys (likely Ferguson after how he ended last year) steps up.
6. Rico Dowdle – Jerry Jones outwardly expressed his love for Jonathon Brooks, but he wasn’t the only one who felt that way, as the Panthers picked him in Round 2 before Dallas could. The Cowboys then pivoted to Plan B, who was not a different RB prospect but rather soon-to-be 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas’ history with Zeke will ensure he gets a fair share of the carries, but Dowdle might just be the superior player at this stage of their respective careers. Regardless, Zeke is far lighter competition for Dowdle than a Day 2 rookie RB would have been, and this is an elite offense.
7. Devin Singletary – Another team who didn’t add RB help until Day 3. This Giants offense is going to be bad and new addition Tyrone Tracy was a RB/WR hybrid in college, so he could step in and play on passing downs right away (notable considering Singletary has consistently graded out as a below-average receiver in his pro career), but Singletary should get the lion’s share of carries for NYG. How valuable that workload actually is remains to be seen, but surviving the draft with minimal competition for carries is clearly good for Singletary.
8. Rashid Shaheed – The Saints’ only WR addition was fifth-rounder Bub Means. Shaheed will have minimal competition for the WR2 spot, and WR3 Cedrick Wilson has largely been a rotational player throughout his career. Shaheed remained absurdly efficient in 2023 with 9.6 yards per target and five touchdowns on 75 targets. It’s TBD how scaleable his workload is, but he’ll have every opportunity to garner a larger target share in 2024, and he remains one of the best spike-week wideouts in football.
9. Jameson Williams – With Josh Reynolds out of town, Jamo may actually step into the role fantasy football players have been projecting for him since he came into the league. Williams struggled to earn targets in a larger role in 2023, but another offseason for him to develop should help with that, and the Lions didn’t add any receivers during the draft.
10. Kyler Murray – It was expected to happen, but Murray gains one of the best WR prospects in history in Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison will be the Cardinals’ WR1 immediately and the MHJ-Trey McBride duo is legitimately one of the most exciting in football. Combine that with another year for Murray to recover from his devastating 2022 injury, and things are looking good for the QB1 in the desert.
11. James Cook – The Bills didn’t add an RB until Round 4 (Ray Davis). Buffalo only had one game with a positive PROE over the second half of the year, while they had four games with a -7.9% PROE or lower. The Joe Brady regime wants to establish it, and Cook doesn’t have much competition for touches. His pass-catching role could be expanded too with Diggs out of town.
12. Josh Palmer – Palmer has had games with a 20% target share or higher without Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams in the past. The Chargers’ decision to forgo WR with the fifth pick leaves Palmer as the WR1 still, although Ladd McConkey will have every chance to push for that role as well. LAC is going to run the ball a ton, but they are just so desolate at pass-catcher without Allen, Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett that both Palmer and McConkey should see ample volume despite the low-volume aerial attack.
13. Demarcus Robinson – Robinson had at least a 13.5% target share in five of the Rams’ final six games (excluding Week 18 where they rested starters and Robinson played sparingly). With no WR additions, he has the inside track for the WR3 role in Los Angeles again. This is especially interesting given Cooper Kupp‘s injury history.
14. Isiah Pacheco – Kansas City didn’t add a running back during the draft, leaving Pacheco as the unquestioned leader of this backfield again. We saw Jerick McKinnon‘s involvement plummet in 2023 – that trend could continue since he’s another year older. We know KC wants to pass the ball in the red zone, hurting Pacheco’s goal-line role (at least in a vacuum compared to how many points the Chiefs score), but he’s still the lead back in a Patrick Mahomes offense.
15. Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman – With Nick Chubb on the mend and potentially looking at an extended absence and/or ramp-up in 2024, Ford and Foreman will head the Cleveland backfield come September. The Browns did not add a back during the draft. Ford is more experienced as a receiver, while Foreman has succeeded between the tackles when called upon. Both should be involved as long as Chubb is less than 100%.
16. Tyler Conklin – The Jets did not add at TE, meaning Conklin will enter 2024 as Aaron Rodgers‘ TE1. He’s consistently earned a respectable target share since going to New York; the problem has been quality of targets. The return of Rodgers should assuage that concern at least partially.

LOSERS

1. Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders – Jonathon Brooks was widely regarded as the best running back in the class despite tearing his ACL late last year. He’s reportedly on track for Week 1. Even if he misses the first game or two or takes some time to ramp up, Hubbard and Sanders will still split work in arguably the worst offense in the NFL on paper. Even if Brooks misses time during the season, it’s hard to tell yourself there’s that much of an upside case here given the presumed Hubbard/Sanders split and the offense’s inability to move the ball.
2. Michael Mayer – The Raiders spent their first-round pick on one of the best TE prospects ever. Mayer will still play and Las Vegas could run a lot of 2-TE sets, but TE2 in a Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell offense doesn’t sound like a recipe for success.
3. Kyren Williams – Williams posted high-end fantasy numbers in 2023 because his workload was second to only Christian McCaffrey. The addition of third-round pick Blake Corum jeopardizes that massive role. Plus, Corum scored 27 TDs for Michigan in 2023, most of which were from in close. Williams is undersized for a goal-line back; is there a chance Corum (who, to be fair, is only 205 pounds himself) steals some goal-line work?
4. James Conner – Conner will be 29 years old for the 2024 season and has a lengthy injury history. The Cardinals used Emari Demercado and Michael Carter over him in passing situations last year. They then drafted hyper-athletic Florida State RB Trey Benson, who will come in and potentially challenge Conner for RB1 duties. Conner should maintain his goal-line role as long as he stays healthy – a major boon in what should be a much-improved Arizona offense – but can he stave off Benson and stay healthy to post viable fantasy numbers?
5. Gabe Davis and Zay Jones – Jacksonville nabbed LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round. Thomas was primarily a downfield threat at LSU, so his skill-set overlaps with Davis more than Christian Kirk. This also pushes Jones to WR4.
6. Marvin Mims – Broncos brass has talked up Mims this offseason, but they did so last season too then refused to put him on the field. Josh Reynolds is a reliable veteran who will push for WR2 duties, and fourth-round draft pick Troy Franklin was mocked two rounds earlier than he actually went. Franklin’s poor draft capital gives Mims the edge to start, but it’s certainly not as locked in as it appeared pre-draft.
7. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert – Achane struggled to stay healthy as a rookie, and Mostert’s injury history is well-known. The Dolphins traded a third-round pick in 2025 to draft Jaylen Wright – who most draftniks viewed as a Day 2 prospect – in the fourth round. Wright is a distant third in the touches pecking order, but he’s more problematic than Jeff Wilson for Achane/Mostert, and it makes sense for Miami to try to keep both backs healthy given they have Super Bowl aspirations.
8. Josh Jacobs and A.J. Dillon – The addition of MarShawn Lloyd in the third round is probably a bigger problem for Dillon than Jacobs, but you never want to see a Day 2 rookie RB when you’re spending an early-round pick on a running back for fantasy. Lloyd is probably a death blow for Dillon, who looked like he was running in mud in 2023.
9. Alec Pierce – Indianapolis drafted tall speedy field-stretcher Adonai Mitchell in the second round. Many viewed him as a first-round prospect. He’ll join Michael Pittman and Josh Downs in 3-WR sets, signaling the end of Pierce’s days as a starter for the Colts.