Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 297-217, +$5,368 (through Wild Card round)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 367-234, +$10,134 (through January 10)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Jerick McKinnon rushing yards
Line: 19.5 yards
Mean Projection: 31.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: January 19, 8:57am ET
Notes: McKinnon is the Chiefs’ most trusted RB and they could lean on him more in a playoff game.
2. Isiah Pacheco carries
Line: 13.5 carries
Mean Projection: 12.2 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-108)
Date: January 19, 2:53pm ET
Notes: The Chiefs could either lean into their passing game even further in the postseason or give more work to McKinnon.
3. Trevor Lawrence pass attempts
Line: 40.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 36.9 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: January 19, 3:25pm ET
Notes: Just a huge number even in a game where the Jaguars should be in negative script.
4. Josh Allen pass attempts
Line: 34.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 36.6 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: January 20, 8:27am ET
Notes: The Bills will need to lean on Allen to keep pace with Joe Burrow’s Bengals.
5. Devin Singletary carries
Line: 10.5 carries
Mean Projection: 8.9 carries
Book: Widely available (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: January 20, 9:10am ET
Notes: James Cook has out-carried Singletary in two straight games and we think Buffalo leans on the aerial attack.
6. Saquon Barkley rushing yards
Line: 70.5 yards
Mean Projection: 66.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: January 20, 4:21pm ET
Notes: The Giants will likely be in negative script and face a stingy Eagles defense.
7. Travis Etienne receiving yards
Line: 21.5 yards
Mean Projection: 18.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: January 20, 4:41pm ET
Notes: ETN is in an every-snap role, but he simply has not commanded targets over the second half of the season.
