Winning and transparency are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself. Let’s dive into Week 18.
Week 18 officials: 6-6, -$102
Week 18 alts: 0-1, -$39
Overall officials: 186-153 +$1,805; +4.92% ROI
Overall alts: 13-171, -$439; -21.81% ROI
Christian McCaffrey O5.5 Receptions +120 (6, W)
Mean proj: 5.9
This one mainly came down to the matchup and one of the biggest Defense vs. Position (DvP) bumps in the league.
Our modeling has the Seahawks allowing a 19.4% target share to opposing RBs this year. That ends up being a 7% bump over the average, leading to a 66.7% under rate on RB Reception props against.
A Questionable tag for Ricky Pearsall also gave us a little freeroll equity if he were to end up missing, which he did.
We projected a 23% target share for McCaffrey, and he ultimately dominated with a 29% share.
Justin Jefferson U72.5 Receiving Yards -108 (101, L)
ETR NFL Player Props
Our team includes renowned fantasy analysts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, high-stakes professional DFS players, and specialists who cover niche areas that we believe are important to understand.
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