NFL Props Review: Week 5

 

Week 5 Record: 15-9, +$487

YTD: 62-62, -$880

 

The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 5.

 

Sam Howell Over 30.5 Passing Attempts (51, W) 

Mean proj: 33.1

Eric Bieniemy’s Commanders were a pass-heavy offense coming into this game, posting a positive PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) in four straight games after opening the year about neutral. Combined with an unsustainably high sack rate, this was one of the best QB plays on the board with a $17.4 EV (Expected Value).

The sack rate did regress as expected, which certainly helped, but what no one saw coming was the Commanders taking it to the next level with an outrageous 91% pass rate, a full 17.8% above expected. 

 

 

That 17.8% PROE is the second-highest mark from any team this year, and the 91% actual pass rate is by far the biggest we’ve seen so far in 2023.

Washington now owns the highest pass rate (72.7%) and PROE (+8.3%) in the league. 

 

Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 3.5 Receptions, -137 (5, W)

With a growing role and benefiting from some of the easiest underneath looks possible, all signs pointed to a Wan’Dale receptions over as one of the more straightforward plays of the week.

Robinson since returning this year: 

• 3.2-yard aDOT
• 22% first-read target rate, 88th percentile among all WRs
• 27% TPRR (targets per route run), 87th percentile

ETR projected 6.2 targets on an 18.6% target share, and he wound up with six targets and a 21% share. You love to see it when a plan comes together.

 

Lamar Jackson Over 25.5 Passing Attempts (38, W)