Week 19 Record: 7-4, $281
YTD: 246-215, +$747
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Wild Card Weekend.
Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 Pass Completions -125 (23, W)
Mean proj: 22.9
This play was part weather, part matchup, and partly a line that didn’t seem adjusted for a surprisingly low game total in the mid-40s.
We knew it was likely to be frigid at Arrowhead, which historically affects passing rates and volume. Then there were the Dolphins, who’ve been good at depressing opponent play volume across the board, leading to a bunch of QB unders all year long.
K.C. was relatively pass-heavy considering it was the fourth-coldest playoff game on record, but they were still actually slightly negative on Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) at -0.1%, especially for them (+6.4% YTD). It’s nice to see one come together pretty much as planned.
Patrick Mahomes Under 28.5 Rushing Yards -105 (41, L)
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