DraftKings released win totals last Friday, so we wanted to give you as much impactful information on team totals as soon as possible. Rosters will still change from here, as the draft is roughly a month away, while a number of notable free agents remain available. Below you’ll find a write-up on all 32 teams, as well as a table showing things like strength of schedule and Super Bowl odds.
Notes:
All win total figures were taken from DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday, March 25, while the juice and any early line movements were added on Sunday, March 27.
“Strength of Schedule” is ranked from hardest (1st) to easiest (32nd).
The “Draft Picks” section includes every team’s selections in April’s draft within the first three rounds.
Italicized players in the “Departures” section are either retired or remain unsigned as of March 27.
Arizona Cardinals
Last Season’s Record: 11-6
Opening Win Total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 4th
Home Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, LAR, SF, SEA
Away Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, LAR, SF, SEA
Uncommon Opponents: vs NE, vs PHI, at MIN
Draft Picks: 1.23, 2.55, 3.87
Additions: LB Nick Vigil
Departures: RB Chase Edmonds, WR Christian Kirk, WR A.J. Green, Edge Chandler Jones, DT Jordan Phillips, LB Jordan Hicks, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Robert Alford
The Cardinals started last season 7-0, followed by a 4-6 regular season finish capped off with a blowout loss to the Rams in the playoffs. Kyler Murray is a dynamic talent that is capable of carrying a team behind MVP-caliber play, but ultimately the Cardinals have lost significant talent this offseason and they face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league while playing in the NFC’s toughest division.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
Atlanta Falcons
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Opening Win Total: 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 7th
Home Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, TB
Away Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, CAR, NO, TB
Uncommon Opponents: vs CHI, vs LAC, at WAS
Draft Picks: 1.08, 2.43, 2.58, 3.74, 3.82
Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Damien Williams, OT Elijah Wilkinson, Edge Lorenzo Carter, CB Casey Hayward
Departures: QB Matt Ryan, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, Edge Dante Fowler, LB Foyesade Oluokun, LS Josh Harris
Atlanta went 6-2 in one-score games last year (winning their seventh game by 8) behind one of the most talent-deprived rosters in the league. New signal caller Marcus Mariota will serve as the bridge between recently traded franchise icon Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s eventual future at quarterback. Regardless of when that new era begins, the Falcons are rebuilding with the seventh-most difficult schedule in the league.
Current Lean: Under
Baltimore Ravens
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Opening Win Total: 9.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 25th
Home Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, CIN, CLE, PIT
Away Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, CIN, CLE, PIT
Uncommon Opponents: vs DEN, at JAX, at NYG
Draft Picks: 1.14, 2.45, 3.76, 3.100
Additions: OT Morgan Moses, DT Michael Pierce, S Marcus Williams
Departures: WR Sammy Watkins, G/C Bradley Bozeman, Edge Justin Houston, DT Calais Campbell, DT Brandon Williams, CB Anthony Averett, CB Tavon Young
The Ravens were absolutely ravaged by injuries last season, but quarterback Lamar Jackson is only a couple of years removed from an MVP season and Baltimore has been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL since the turn of the century. The Ravens’ uncommon opponents in the Jaguars and Giants give them a considerable edge over last year’s AFC North-winning Bengals, who draw the Titans and Cowboys in those spots. Given that schedule advantage over the Bengals, along with the possibility that Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson misses a few games via suspension, I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for a value play on the Ravens winning the AFC North over the coming weeks.
Current Lean: Over
Buffalo Bills
Last Season’s Record: 11-6
Opening Win Total: 11.5 (Over -135, Under +115)
Strength of Schedule: 15th
Home Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, MIA, NE, NYJ
Away Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, MIA, NE, NYJ
Uncommon Opponents: vs TEN, at KC, at LAR
Draft Picks: 1.25, 2.57, 3.89
Additions: QB Case Keenum, RB Duke Johnson, WR Jamison Crowder, TE O.J. Howard, G Roger Saffold, C Greg Mancz, Edge Von Miller, Edge Shaq Lawson, DT Tim Settle, DT Jordan Phillips
Departures: QB Mitch Trubisky, RB Matt Breida, WR Cole Beasley, WR Emmanuel Sanders, OT Daryl Williams, G Jon Feliciano, Edge Jerry Hughes, Edge Mario Addison, DT Harrison Phillips, DT Vernon Butler, CB Levi Wallace
The Bills have a highly capable defense, but Buffalo has become The Josh Allen Show in recent years. While the Bills are in a strong position to win the AFC East and therefore compete for the top spot in the conference, a number of teams with dynamic quarterbacks have closed the talent gap on Buffalo this offseason.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
Carolina Panthers
Last Season’s Record: 5-12
Opening Win Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 15th
Home Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, ATL, NO, TB
Away Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, ATL, NO, TB
Uncommon Opponents: vs DET, vs DEN, at NYG
Draft Picks: 1.06
Additions: RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Rashard Higgins, G Austin Corbett, G/ C Bradley Bozeman, DT Matt Ioannidis, LB Damien Wilson, LB Cory Littleton, S Xavier Woods, P Johnny Hekker
Departures: QB Cam Newton, C Matt Paradis, Edge Haason Reddick, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB A.J. Bouye
Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense was better than expected through the first four games last year, and then they fell off a cliff for the rest of the season. Carolina has some talented young players on both sides of the ball, and you can find six winnable games on the schedule without coloring too far outside the lines. But ultimately this situation seems like one where the Panthers enter next season looking for Matt Rhule’s replacement.
Current Lean: Under
Chicago Bears
Last Season’s Record: 6-11
Opening Win Total: 7.5 (Moved to 7, Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 29th
Home Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, DET, GB, MIN
Away Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, DET, GB, MIN
Uncommon Opponents: vs SF, vs HOU, at ATL
Draft Picks: 2.39, 2.48, 3.71
Additions: FB Khari Blasingame, WR Byron Pringle, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, G Lucas Patrick, Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, DT Justin Jones
Departures: QB Andy Dalton, RB Damien Williams, WR Allen Robinson, WR Jakeem Grant, TE Jimmy Graham, G/C James Daniels, OT Elijah Wilkinson, OL Germain Ifedi, Edge Khalil Mack, DT Akiem Hicks, DT Eddie Goldman, DT Bilal Nichols, S Deon Bush, P Pat O’Donnell
As Silva recently mentioned, you could argue that the Bears have the worst roster in football. The Bears’ offensive and defensive lines in particular will look much different than they have in recent years this opening day. That is the primary reason Chicago’s win total is the only one that shifted over the weekend. The bull case for the Bears is that second-year quarterback Justin Fields breaks out and carries Chicago to greater than expected success against the fourth-easiest schedule.
Current Lean: Under
Cincinnati Bengals
Last Season’s Record: 10-7
Opening Win Total: 10 (Over +110, Under -130)
Strength of Schedule: 7th
Home Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, BAL, CLE, PIT
Away Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL, CLE, PIT
Uncommon Opponents: vs KC, at TEN, at DAL
Draft Picks: 1.31, 2.63, 3.95
Additions: TE Hayden Hurst, OT La’el Collins, G Alex Cappa, G/ C Ted Karras
Departures: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Riley Reiff, DT Larry Ogunjobi
The Bengals’ primary missions this offseason were to improve their offensive line while retaining safety Jessie Bates. They accomplished both of those goals. Joe Burrow has already proven that he’s the real deal to the point we can reasonably expect him and his Bengals to be a factor in the AFC for years to come. The bear case on Cincinnati is that Super Bowl losing teams often stumble the following year. The Bengals also face the seventh-most difficult schedule, while their division rivals all draw more manageable uncommon opponents.
Current Lean: Push
Cleveland Browns
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Opening Win Total: Off
Strength of Schedule: 28th
Home Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL, CIN, PIT
Away Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, PIT
Uncommon Opponents: vs LAC, at HOU, at WAS
Draft Picks: 2.44, 3.78, 3.99
Additions: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Amari Cooper, WR Jakeem Grant, Edge Chase Winovich, DT Taven Bryan
Departures: QB Case Keenum, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Rashard Higgins, TE Austin Hooper, C J.C. Tretter, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, DT Malik Jackson, S Ronnie Harrison
If newly-acquired quarterback Deshaun Watson plays the entire 2022 season, the Browns could open with a win total of 10 or more games while being legitimate title contenders. Cleveland’s current division and Super Bowl odds on DraftKings reflect those stances. If Watson is suspended for roughly half the year, Cleveland likely opens in the 7-to-8 win total range.
Current Lean: The league tends to suspend its star players for shorter periods than expected in situations like this.
Dallas Cowboys
Last Season’s Record: 12-5
Opening Win Total: 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Strength of Schedule: 21st
Home Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, NYG, PHI, WAS
Away Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, NYG, PHI, WAS
Uncommon Opponents: vs TB, vs CIN, at LAR
Draft Picks: 1.24, 2.56, 3.88
Additions: WR James Washington, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, Edge Dante Fowler
Departures: WR Amari Cooper, WR Cedrick Wilson, TE Blake Jarwin, OT La’el Collins, G Connor Williams, Edge Randy Gregory, LB Keanu Neal
To this point in the offseason, Dallas has bled talent in a few areas, but their offensive line in particular is now a Tyron Smith or Zack Martin injury away from becoming a potential liability. Outside of their difficult uncommon opponents, Dallas’ divisional schedule along with their matchups against the NFC North and AFC South are very manageable. If Dallas acquires former Bears DT Akiem Hicks as rumored, that might change my current lean from a slight under to a slight over. Similarly, if Dallas takes an offensive lineman in the first two rounds, I’ll be less concerned about their roster drop-offs.
Current lean: Under
Denver Broncos
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Opening Win Total: 10 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 15th
Home Opponents: HOU, IND, ARI, SF, KC, LV, LAC
Away Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, KC, LV, LAC
Uncommon Opponents: vs NYJ, at BAL, at CAR
Draft Picks: 2.64, 3.75, 3.96
Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Josh Johnson, Edge Randy Gregory, DT D.J. Jones, LB Alex Singleton
Departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB Drew Lock, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Noah Fant, OT Bobby Massie, Edge Shelby Harris, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Bryce Callahan
The AFC West is the toughest division in football, but that was the case last year from Denver’s perspective, as they went 1-5 within the division with average Teddy Bridgewater under center. I’m comfortable in treating Russell Wilson as if he’s worth at least three more wins than Teddy, and those uncommon games against the Jets and Panthers are an advantage.
Current Lean: Over (Slight)
Detroit Lions
Last Season’s Record: 3-11-1
Opening Win Total: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)
Strength of Schedule: 24th
Home Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, CHI, GB, MIN
Away Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, CHI, GB, MIN
Uncommon Opponents: vs SEA, vs JAX, at CAR
Draft Picks: 1.02, 1.32, 2.34, 3.66, 3.97
Additions: WR D.J. Chark, CB Mike Hughes
Departures: Edge Trey Flowers, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin
The Lions went 2-5-1 in one-score games last season while playing scrappy, situationally aggressive football throughout the year. It would make sense if Detroit drafts a new future at quarterback with the second overall pick, which makes them a more volatile win total consideration at this very early juncture. Regardless, I can get to six wins for the Lions, but I’d have to start really coloring outside the lines to get beyond that.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
Green Bay Packers
Last Season’s Record: 13-4
Opening Win Total: 11 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 18th
Home Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, MIN
Away Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, CHI, DET, MIN
Uncommon Opponents: vs LAR, vs TEN, at TB
Draft Picks: 1.22, 1.28, 2.53, 2.59, 3.92
Additions: DT Jarran Reed, P Pat O’Donnell
Departures: WR Davante Adams, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, G Lucas Patrick, Edge Za’Darius Smith, CB Kevin King, P J.K. Scott
Adams is a significant loss, but the bigger issue is that he was the only difference-making pass catcher on the roster. I believe in Aaron Rodgers’ ability to make coaches and pass catchers piles of money more than anyone, but it’s kind of an odd stage in Rodgers’ career to start trying to get him a first-round talent or two at wide receiver. With that said, apart from Green Bay’s uncommon opponents, the Packers’ schedule is manageable enough for Rodgers and this defense to reach 11 wins.
Current Lean: Over (slight)
Houston Texans
Last Season’s Record: 4-13
Opening Win Total: 4.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Strength of Schedule: 6th
Home Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, IND, JAX, TEN
Away Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, IND, JAX, TEN
Uncommon Opponents: vs CLE, at MIA, at CHI
Draft Picks: 1.03, 1.13, 2.37, 3.68, 3.80
Additions: QB Kyle Allen, RB Dare Ogunbowale, FB Andy Janovich, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, G A.J. Cann, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB Blake Cashman
Departures: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Tyrod Taylor, OT Geron Christian, Edge Jacob Martin, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Justin Reid, S A.J. Moore
I’m not exactly sure what David Culley was expected to do last year, but Lovie Smith’s last head coaching stint in the NFL came in Tampa Bay from 2014-2015, where the Buccaneers combined for an 8-24 record over that span. I’m not expecting a wildly different result given the limitations of this Texans roster.
Current Lean: Under
Indianapolis Colts
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Opening Win Total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 30th
Home Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, HOU, JAX, TEN
Away Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, HOU, JAX, TEN
Uncommon Opponents: vs PIT, at NE, at MIN
Draft Picks: 2.42, 3.73
Additions: QB Matt Ryan, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, CB Brandon Facyson
Departures: QB Carson Wentz, RB Jordan Wilkins, T.Y. Hilton, WR Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle, G Mark Glowinski, OT Eric Fisher, Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, CB Rock Ya-Sin, CB Xavier Rhodes, S George Odum
Outside of their dates with the loaded AFC West, the Colts have a very manageable schedule and Matt Ryan is an upgrade over Carson Wentz. There are no easy wins among the Colts’ uncommon opponents, but their trio is still more manageable than the Titans’. Indianapolis has the third-easiest schedule overall in the league, which is largely driven by having two games each against the Jaguars and Texans (which is a fine example of why I care more about how many relevant opponents teams play).
Current Lean: Over (slight)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Season’s Record: 3-14
Opening Win Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Strength of Schedule: 27th
Home Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, HOU, IND, TEN
Away Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, HOU, IND, TEN
Uncommon Opponents: vs BAL, at NYJ, at DET
Draft Picks: 1.01, 2.33, 3.65, 3.70
Additions: WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, G Brandon Scherff, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Foyesade Oluokun, CB Darious Williams
Departures: RB Dare Ogunbowale, WR D.J. Chark, TE Jacob Hollister, G Andrew Norwell, G A.J. Cann, DT Taven Bryan, LB Myles Jack, LB Damien Wilson
Any bull case for the Jaguars starts with Trevor Lawrence taking a significant leap behind a somewhat improved roster, a much more stable coach, and a manageable schedule. Long term, some of these contracts are the kinds of overpays that ultimately lead to general managers getting fired, but for now, Lawrence is in a better situation than he was throughout his rookie campaign.
Current Lean: Over (slight)
Kansas City Chiefs
Last Season’s Record: 12-5
Opening Win Total: 11 (Over +120, Under -140)
Strength of Schedule: 1st
Home Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, DEN, LV, LAC
Away Opponents: HOU, IND, ARZ, SF, DEN, LV, LAC
Uncommon Opponents: vs BUF, at CIN, at TB
Draft Picks: 1.29, 1.30, 2.50, 2.62, 3.94, 3.103
Additions: RB Ronald Jones, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Corey Coleman, OT Geron Christian, S Justin Reid, S Deon Bush
Departures: RB Darrel Williams, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Byron Pringle, WR Demarcus Robinson, Edge Melvin Ingram, DT Jarran Reed, CB Charvarius Ward, CB Mike Hughes, S Tyrann Mathieu
Similar to the Packers, the Chiefs’ roster has been getting a little worse every year and the loss of Tyreek Hill will change how this offense operates. Throw in the loss of multiple members of this secondary and that the Chiefs struggled more than their final record would indicate last year, and Kansas City could be heading towards a bit of a slide in a now-loaded AFC West. On top of that, the Chiefs have the hardest schedule in the league this year and their brutal trio of uncommon matchups is an edge for all three of their AFC West rivals.
Long term, I understand the need for Kansas City to get cheaper and younger, and ultimately this team goes as far as Patrick Mahomes takes them. But Kansas City’s decision to pay Aaron Rodgers‘ version of Mecole Hardman (MVS) makes me question the Chiefs’ plan for the first time in a long time.
Current Lean: Under, but the juice is surprising and makes it a real decision.
Las Vegas Raiders
Last Season’s Record: 10-7
Opening Win Total: 8 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 3rd
Home Opponents: HOU, IND, ARI, SF, DEN, KC, LAC
Away Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, DEN, KC, LAC
Uncommon Opponents: vs NE, at PIT, at NO
Draft Picks: 3.86
Additions: RB Brandon Bolden, RB Ameer Abdullah, FB Jacob Johnson, WR Davante Adams, WR Demarcus Robinson, TE Jacob Hollister, Edge Chandler Jones, DT Bilal Nichols, DT Vernon Butler, CB Rock Ya-Sin, CB Anthony Averett
Departures: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Zay Jones, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Cory Littleton, CB Casey Hayward, CB Brandon Facyson
There are a few divisions that I think the Raiders could win, and when you look at these transactions, it’s pretty clear that Las Vegas got better this offseason. The Raiders could realistically have a high-end offense and their pass defense is sneaky interesting. The obstacle with being bullish on the Raiders is their strength of schedule (a hurdle they overcame last year) and the reality that at least one team is unlikely to get into the playoffs in the AFC West.
Current Lean: Over
Los Angeles Chargers
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Opening Win Total: 10 (Over -120, Under +100)
Strength of Schedule: 7th
Home Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, DEN, KC, LV
Away Opponents: HOU, IND, ARI, SF, DEN, KC, LV
Uncommon Opponents: vs MIA, at CLE, at ATL
Draft Picks: 1.17, 3.79
Additions: QB Chase Daniel, TE Gerald Everett, Edge Khalil Mack, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, DT Austin Johnson, CB J.C. Jackson, LS Josh Harris, P J.K. Scott
Departures: RB Justin Jackson, TE Jared Cook, OT Bryan Bulaga, Edge Uchenna Nwosu, DT Linval Joseph, DT Justin Jones, CB Chris Harris
The Chargers have kept most of their offensive roster intact for MVP candidate Justin Herbert while adding several significant pieces to last year’s massively underachieving defense. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack sounds like the best edge rush duo in the league, although I have some reservation on J.C. Jackson, as Patriots that Bill Belichick allows to walk away usually take a step or two back when they leave the nest. That’s more of a potential addition than acquiring an elite pass rusher that hates Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Mack for me. That said, outside of injury, there are more paths to the Chargers beating their win total than not this year.
Current Lean: Over
Los Angeles Rams
Last Season’s Record: 12-5
Opening Win Total: 10.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Strength of Schedule: 2nd
Home Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, ARI, SF, SEA
Away Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, ARI, SF, SEA
Uncommon Opponents: vs DAL, vs BUF, at GB
Draft Picks: 3.104
Additions: WR Allen Robinson
Departures: RB Sony Michel, WR Robert Woods, WR Odell Beckham, OT Andrew Whitworth, G Austin Corbett, Edge Von Miller, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, CB Darious Williams, P Johnny Hekker
Outside of injuries and schedule difficulty, Joe Noteboom’s ability to take over for Andrew Whitworth at tackle is the biggest unknown for the Rams at this juncture. Otherwise, the defending champs are bringing back the core of their championship roster.
Current Lean: Over (slight)
Miami Dolphins
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Opening Win Total: 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 18th
Home Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, BUF, NE, NYJ
Away Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, BUF, NE, NYJ
Uncommon Opponents: vs HOU, at LAC, at SF
Draft Picks: 3.102
Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Cedrick Wilson, OT Terron Armstead, G Connor Williams, CB Keion Crossen
Departures: QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Will Fuller, C Greg Mancz
What Mike McDaniels’ does with this offense might be the thing I’m looking forward to most heading into this season. If he does what I think he’s going to do in a macro sense, and Miami’s defense continues its level of effectiveness in Brian Flores‘ absence, Miami is an interesting consideration to win the AFC East at +400 odds. Ultimately, you could argue that no team has improved more than Miami this offseason, and if Tua Tagovailoa takes a leap, this could be a very interesting year for Dolphins fans.
Current Lean: Over
Minnesota Vikings
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Opening Win Total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 21st
Home Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, GB
Away Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, CHI, DET, GB
Uncommon Opponents: vs ARI, vs IND, at NO
Draft Picks: 1.12, 2.46, 3.77
Additions: Edge Za’Darius Smith, DT Harrison Phillips, LB Jordan Hicks
Departures: TE Tyler Conklin, C Mason Cole, DT Michael Pierce, DT Sheldon Richardson, LB Anthony Barr, LB Nick Vigil, CB Patrick Peterson, S Xavier Woods
Minnesota went 4-7 in one-score games last season with a late-season trip to Green Bay (without Kirk Cousins) serving as the only time the Vikings lost by more than eight points all year. The offense should be good, despite dashes of maddening inconsistency in the past. On defense, Minnesota’s front could be improved, especially if Danielle Hunter can stay healthy, while the Vikings are well positioned to add some significant secondary help in the draft if they so choose.
Current Lean: Over (slight)
New England Patriots
Last Season’s Record: 10-7
Opening Win Total: 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 13th
Home Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, NYJ
Away Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, BUF, MIA, NYJ
Uncommon Opponents: vs IND, at LV, at ARI
Draft Picks: 1.21, 2.54, 3.85
Additions: RB Ty Montgomery, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Malcolm Butler
Departures: RB Brandon Bolden, G Shaq Mason, G/ C Ted Karras, Edge Chase Winovich, LB Dont’a Hightower, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB J.C. Jackson
The offseason isn’t over, but to this point the Patriots’ roster is noticeably thinner than it was on opening day last year. Since the AFC is filled with teams that have already gotten better, that’s genuinely concerning. The bull case for New England is built on two very realistic possibilities: Mac Jones improves on a very solid rookie campaign and that Bill Belichick continues to provide strategic edges against virtually every opponent.
Current Lean: Under
New Orleans Saints
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Opening Win Total: 7.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Strength of Schedule: 20th
Home Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, TB
Away Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, TB
Uncommon Opponents: vs MIN, vs LV, at PHI
Draft Picks: 1.18, 2.49, 3.98, 3.101
Additions: S Marcus Maye
Departures: OT Terron Armstead, LB Kwon Alexander, CB P.J. Williams, S Marcus Williams
The NFC West and AFC North are tough draws for everyone in the NFC South, which is a primary reason that I’m veering towards unders on everyone in the division. In the case of the Saints, the departure of Sean Payton while losing stud tackle Terron Armstead paired with the Alvin Kamara (off-field) and Michael Thomas (injury) uncertainties sounds like a situation that has a lot of different ways to go wrong or otherwise underwhelm.
Current Lean: Under
New York Giants
Last Season’s Record: 4-13
Opening Win Total: 7.5 (Over +120, Under -145)
Strength of Schedule: 31st
Home Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL, PHI, WAS
Away Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, DAL, PHI, WAS
Uncommon Opponents: vs CAR, vs BAL, at SEA
Draft Picks: 1.05, 1.07, 2.36, 3.67, 3.81
Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Matt Breida, WR Robert Foster, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, G Mark Glowinski, G Jon Feliciano
Departures: RB Devontae Booker, TE Evan Engram, TE Kyle Rudolph, OT Nate Solder, G Will Hernandez, C Billy Price, Edge Lorenzo Carter, DT Austin Johnson, CB Keion Crossen, S Logan Ryan, S Jabrill Peppers
The Giants seem to have a real plan for the first time in over half a decade, but ultimately this is a below-average roster that the new regime appears to be hitting the reset button on. The bull case for the Giants is that Daniel Jones massively improves in Brian Daboll’s offense, while facing one of the easiest schedules in the league.
Current Lean: Under
New York Jets
Last Season’s Record: 4-13
Opening Win Total: 5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Strength of Schedule: 4th
Home Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, NE
Away Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, BUF, MIA, NE
Uncommon Opponents: vs JAX, at DEN, at SEA
Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.10, 2.35, 2.38, 3.69
Additions: TE C.J. Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, G Laken Tomlinson, Edge Jacob Martin, CB D.J. Reed, S Jordan Whitehead
Departures: WR Jamison Crowder, OT Morgan Moses, Edge Shaq Lawson, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Blake Cashman, S Marcus Maye
I like what the Jets have done so far this offseason, they have four top-50 picks in this year’s draft, and they spent the last month of last season giving Miami, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo very competitive games (the Bills game was close until late). Second-year quarterback Zach Wilson struggled and missed multiple games during his rookie campaign, but I’m not ready to write him off just yet, as the Jets’ best offensive players all missed significant time last season. There are a number of paths for this situation to improve, but ultimately Wilson will have to be far more consistent for the Jets to hang in a very competitive AFC.
Current Lean: Over
Philadelphia Eagles
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Opening Win Total: 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Strength of Schedule: 31st
Home Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, DAL, NYG, WAS
Away Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, WAS
Uncommon Opponents: vs NO, vs PIT, at ARI
Draft Picks: 1.15, 1.16, 1.19, 2.51, 3.83
Additions: WR Zach Pascal, Edge/LB Haason Reddick
Departures: LB Alex Singleton, CB Steven Nelson
Philadelphia went 0-6 (plus a loss to the Chargers) against playoff teams last year, but they are tied with the Giants for the easiest schedule this season while facing the fewest quality (7) and elite teams (3). The Eagles’ roster remains more intact than any other NFC playoff team from last season, and they have three top-20 picks in this April’s draft. If you’re down on Dallas, the Eagles are an interesting consideration to win the NFC East at +350.
Current Lean: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Season’s Record: 9-7-1
Opening Win Total: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 7th
Home Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL, CIN, CLE
Away Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, CLE
Uncommon Opponents: vs LV, at IND, at PHI
Draft Picks: 1.20, 2.52, 3.84
Additions: QB Mitch Trubisky, G/C James Daniels, C Mason Cole, LB Myles Jack, CB Levi Wallace
Departures: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR James Washington, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, LB Joe Schobert, CB Joe Haden, S Terrell Edmunds
The Steelers have made some of my favorite value signings this offseason, and they’ve been a model of consistency throughout the Mike Tomlin era. The downside for Pittsburgh is that the AFC is now filled with dynamic quarterbacks and they simply do not have one.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
San Francisco 49ers
Last Season’s Record: 10-7
Opening Win Total: 10 (Over -115, Under -105)
Strength of Schedule: 14th
Home Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, ARI, LAR, SEA
Away Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, ARI, LAR, SEA
Uncommon Opponents: vs WAS, vs MIA, at CHI
Draft Picks: 2.61, 3.93, 3.105
Additions: WR Ray-Ray McCloud, CB Charvarius Ward, S George Odum
Departures: RB Raheem Mostert, G Laken Tomlinson, Edge Arden Key, DT D.J. Jones, S Jaquiski Tartt
San Francisco is three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance and they lost a tight game in the NFC Championship last year. The 49ers lost some role players this offseason while potentially getting a significant boost at corner in Ward; so they may have actually improved upon their already high-end roster, which is something that the other primary contenders in the NFC cannot say. The question right now is, will Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo start on opening day? We know what we’ll get with Jimmy, where Lance is more of an unknown with a higher ceiling.
Current Lean: Over
Seattle Seahawks
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Opening Win Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Strength of Schedule: 7th
Home Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, ARI, LAR, SF
Away Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, ARI, LAR, SF
Uncommon Opponents: vs NYG, vs NYJ, at DET
Draft Picks: 1.09, 2.40, 2.41, 3.72
Additions: QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, Edge Uchenna Nwosu, Edge Shelby Harris, DT Quinton Jefferson,
Departures: QB Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith, TE Gerald Everett, OT Duane Brown, OT Brandon Shell, OT Jamarco Jones, Edge Carlos Dunlap, LB Bobby Wagner, CB D.J. Reed
The bull case for Seattle starts with winnable home games against the Falcons, Panthers, Jets, and Giants with a road trip to Detroit. Even if Seattle goes 5-0 in those matchups, they will have to knock off the Saints in New Orleans, Russell Wilson’s Broncos, or win twice against playoff teams to reach seven wins. Even if Seattle gets Baker Mayfield, I’m comfortable betting against those conditions, as we already saw last season what this team looks like without Russ.
Current lean: Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Season’s Record: 13-4
Opening Win Total: 11.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 21st
Home Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, NO
Away Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, NO
Uncommon Opponents: vs GB, vs KC, at DAL
Draft Picks: 1.27, 2.60, 3.91
Additions: WR Russell Gage, G Shaq Mason, S Logan Ryan
Departures: RB Ronald Jones, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE O.J. Howard, G Ali Marpet, G Alex Cappa, Edge Jason-Pierre Paul, DT Ndamukong Suh, S Jordan Whitehead
Tampa Bay brought back the overwhelming majority of their championship team last offseason, but this year they have bled some talent. The bull case for the Bucs is that Tom Brady has returned from his brief retirement and this team lacks any high-end competition within the division. The bear case operates under the premise that Tampa is likely to go 5-1 or better within the division, but that they could very reasonably go 6-5 against the NFC West, AFC North, and their trio of high-end uncommon opponents.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
Tennessee Titans
Last Season’s Record: 12-5
Opening Win Total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Strength of Schedule: 12th
Home Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, HOU, IND, JAX
Away Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, HOU, IND, JAX
Uncommon Opponents: vs CIN, at BUF, at GB
Draft Picks: 1.26, 3.90
Additions: RB Jordan Wilkins, WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jamarco Jones, CB Buster Skrine, S A.J. Moore
Departures: RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Julio Jones, TE Anthony Firkser, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, G Roger Saffold
The Titans remain an uncomfortable, physical matchup in an AFC littered with dynamic quarterbacks. That’s been their key to success during the Mike Vrabel era. The Titans’ biggest disadvantage versus their AFC South rivals is their trio of uncommon opponents. Their biggest obstacle in terms of winning the AFC is that if you were to rank the best quarterbacks in the conference, the most generous ranking for Ryan Tannehill is ninth. Tennessee made it abundantly clear at the end of their Divisional Round loss to Cincinnati that they don’t have much faith in Tannehill when it counts.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
Washington Commanders
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Opening Win Total: 7.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Strength of Schedule: 25th
Home Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, DAL, NYG, PHI
Away Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, PHI
Uncommon Opponents: vs ATL, vs CLE, at SF
Draft Picks: 1.11, 2.47
Additions: QB Carson Wentz, G Andrew Norwell
Departures: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, G Brandon Scherff, G Ereck Flowers, DT Matt Ioannidis, DT Tim Settle, S Landon Collins
Realistically speaking, Carson Wentz likely provides Washington with better, more consistent quarterback play than they’ve had in either of the last two years. The bull case for Washington is Wentz provides them with improved quarterback play, their young skill group continues to get better, and their talented front four will get Chase Young back with the seventh-easiest schedule in a winnable NFC East. The bear case is that this team has won seven games in each of the last two years, because that’s what they are capable of until they get high-end quarterback play.
Current Lean: Under (slight)
| Team | Win Total | Win the Division | Win the Super Bowl | Strength of Schedule | Quality Opponents | Elite Opponents |
| ARI | 9 | +300 | +2200 | 4th (T) | 12 | 8 |
| ATL | 5.5 | +1000 | +10000 | 7th (T) | 9 | 6 |
| BAL | 9.5 | +225 | +2200 | 25th (T) | 9 | 5 |
| BUF | 11.5 | -190 | +650 | 15th (T) | 12 | 4 |
| CAR | 6 | +1100 | +10000 | 15th (T) | 9 | 6 |
| CHI | 7.5 | +750 | +10000 | 29th | 10 | 4 |
| CIN | 10 | +200 | +2000 | 7th (T) | 11 | 4 |
| CLE |
9 (Off) |
+175 | +1700 | 28th | 9 | 5 |
| DAL | 10.5 | -115 | +1600 | 21st (T) | 9 | 4 |
| DEN | 10 | +250 | +1500 | 15th (T) | 12 | 6 |
| DET | 6 | +1200 | +15000 | 24th | 9 | 4 |
| GB | 11 | -175 | +900 | 18th (T) | 10 | 4 |
| HOU | 4.5 | +2200 | +20000 | 6th | 12 | 4 |
| IND | 9.5 | +110 | +2000 | 30th | 10 | 4 |
| JAX | 6.5 | +650 | +10000 | 27th | 11 | 4 |
| KC | 11 | +160 | +900 | 1st | 14 | 9 |
| LV | 8 | +600 | +4000 | 3rd | 12 | 8 |
| LAC | 10 | +250 | +1600 | 7th (T) | 13 | 6 |
| LAR | 10.5 | +160 | +1100 | 2nd | 12 | 9 |
| MIA | 8.5 | +400 | +3000 | 18th (T) | 11 | 6 |
| MIN | 9 | +275 | +4000 | 21st (T) | 9 | 4 |
| NE | 8.5 | +400 | +4000 | 13th | 12 | 4 |
| NO | 7.5 | +450 | +5000 | 20th | 11 | 5 |
| NYG | 7.5 | +650 | +10000 | 31st (T) | 9 | 3 |
| NYJ | 5 | +2500 | +20000 | 4th (T) | 12 | 5 |
| PHI | 8.5 | +350 | +4500 | 31st (T) | 7 | 3 |
| PIT | 7.5 | +850 | +6500 | 7th (T) | 13 | 4 |
| SF | 10 | +180 | +1500 | 14th | 10 | 6 |
| SEA | 6.5 | +1100 | +10000 | 7th (T) | 11 | 8 |
| TB | 11.5 | -280 | +750 | 21st (T) | 9 | 6 |
| TEN | 9.5 | +130 | +2800 | 12th | 11 | 7 |
| WAS | 7.5 | +400 | +6000 | 25th (T) | 10 | 4 |
| Key | ||||||
| Win Total/ Division/Super Bowl: These figures come from DraftKings Sportsbook | ||||||
| Strength of Schedule: Calculated by summing opponents win totals then ranked from hardest (1st) to easiest (31st (T)) | ||||||
| Quality Opponents: Opponents with a win total of 8 or more | ||||||
| Elite Opponents: Opponents with a win total of 10 or more | ||||||
| The Cleveland Browns are currently off the board, so I gave them a win total of 9 in order to calculate strength of schedule. | ||||||
