With the NFL Draft just days away, it’s time to check in on awards markets to see if there are any value options with a path to winning an award. We’ll discuss some of those options while taking a pre-draft overview on a number of offensive rookies.
MVP Value Options
Brock Purdy (+1200 to +1800 FanDuel)
It’s possible that Brandon Aiyuk could be in a different city come Opening Day. But even in that scenario, Purdy would enjoy one of the league’s best supporting casts on a contending team. In fact, if Purdy didn’t have the worst game of his career in a late-season, primetime meltdown against the Ravens, he may have won last year’s MVP. Some would argue that he should have anyway.
Matthew Stafford (+1800 to +3000 DraftKings)
There are at least nine AFC quarterbacks that have a realistic path to the top seed in the conference. The NFC is more wide open, and Stafford is capable of MVP-caliber production. On top of that, if the Rams are going to push the 49ers in the NFC West, it’s on Stafford to take them there.
Aaron Rodgers (+1600 to +2800 Caesars)
The downside for Rodgers is obvious: He missed all but a few snaps last season and he’ll turn 41 in early December. He’s also won four MVPs and you could argue that this Jets roster is the best he’s ever played with. With Buffalo and Miami losing significant talent this offseason, New York has a path to winning the AFC East if the stars align for Gang Green. If you’re a Jets fan or a Rodgers enthusiast, you can get him at a strong value at Caesars.
Coach of the Year Value Options
Jim Harbaugh (+550 to +1000 FanDuel)
Harbaugh is in a fascinating position in the Coach of the Year race. The Chargers’ 2023 campaign was a disaster, putting them in one of the best positions to exceed expectations this year. On the other hand, if Los Angeles bounces back, Justin Herbert likely leads that charge. So, if the Chargers make the playoffs this season, Harbaugh needs to get more credit than most coaches do when they take over a team with a high-end quarterback. You can get Harbaugh at a good value between books, but +1000 is still a pretty hefty price in this market. I’ll revisit this situation specifically after the schedule order release in mid-May.
Matt Eberflus (+1000 to +2000 FanDuel)
The Bears were a playoff-caliber team in the second half of last season, especially on defense. If that carries over into this year and their new rookie quarterback brings more stability than Chicago’s mess at the position from last season, the Bears could be a playoff team. With that in mind, if Chicago builds on their second-half success from last year, the NFC North is the most complete division in the conference by miles.
I make most of my Coach of the Year bets late in the year, as this market fluctuates more than most during the season. Eberflus will likely be the only Coach of the Year bet I make before Opening Day.
Offensive Player of the Year Longshots
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1800 to +2500 DraftKings, BetMGM)
St. Brown was third in the league in receptions last season despite missing a game. Given his proven production ceiling and that he plays for the contending Lions, St. Brown should be much closer to the cluster of favorites in this race. I would set Brown’s line at 15-1 in this race entering the season.
Saquon Barkley (+1600 to +3500 Caesars)
Barkley’s trip to Philadelphia no doubt improves his situation, but the Eagles’ offensive line will almost certainly be worse, Jalen Hurts is consistently among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns, and Hurts doesn’t throw to running backs with high volume. Philly’s offense will need to philosophically change for Barkley to be the league’s most productive running back this season. That said, he’s currently available at an extreme value on Caesars.
Garrett Wilson (+4000 Multiple Locations)
The Jets’ path to success this season is riddled with many “ifs”. One of them is if Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, and he may very well not be. With that said, Wilson is the standalone top option in New York’s passing attack. Wilson has a similar skill set to former Packers super producer Davante Adams. Wilson should be closer to the 20-1 to 25-1 range in this market given his upside.
Drake London (+7000 to +8000 on BetMGM)
After an unwatchable 2023 campaign, Atlanta vanquished the unholy duo of Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder. This season, Kirk Cousins is their new quarterback and Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson will call the offense. That’s all wonderful news for Drake London, even with Cousins returning from an Achilles injury.
D.J. Moore (+6000 to +10000 BetMGM, Caesars)
Moore had a lot of success when Justin Fields was active last season, and the addition of Keenan Allen will cut into Moore’s volume. But ultimately, Chicago is trending up on multiple fronts and it would be no surprise if they ran a more pass-centric offense this season. If you want a longshot with a path, you can get Moore at a strong value on BetMGM and Caesars.
Jaylen Waddle (+10000 to +15000 BetMGM)
If you like to dabble with the occasional deep longshot in awards markets, we’ve seen Tyreek Hill go ballistic in Mike McDaniels’ offense. Waddle has breached 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, and he’d inherit one of the best situations in the sport if Hill missed time or lost a step in his age-30 season. It may be best to get your exposure to that type of outcome through best ball, but 150-1 odds are pretty long for a player with Waddle’s profile.
Marquise Brown (+12000 to +25000 BetMGM)
Brown is a major longshot for a reason, as the chances of him outproducing the top pass catchers in the league is near zero. However, Brown is a former first-rounder on a bet-on-yourself contract that now plays with Patrick Mahomes. Factor in the Rashee Rice situation and that Travis Kelce will turn 35 in October, and Brown has a path to a big year. You can get Brown at an extreme value on BetMGM.
Pre-Draft Offensive Rookie of the Year Notes
This is among the most loaded Offensive Rookie of the Year classes in recent memory, featuring high-end wide receivers with as many as four quarterbacks expected to go within the first 10 picks.
It looks like Chicago-bound Caleb Williams will inherit one of the best rosters a first overall pick ever has, at least in the short term. He’s the favorite in this race, as he should be, where he can be had for a slight value at +350 on FanDuel.
Similarly, if the Vikings trade up for a quarterback as expected, that player automatically becomes a primary contender in this race. Wherever he lands, Jayden Daniels has the skill set to be this year’s most impactful rookie.
There’s a very realistic chance that Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers each begin their NFL career as either Kyler Murray or Justin Herbert’s primary weapon.
Another specific situation to monitor is if the Bills take a wide receiver in the first round; that player’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds will skyrocket. I’ll tackle both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year markets right after the draft.
