Reynolds: Preseason MVP Analysis

For the awards columns this season, I will be using odds from the widely available online sportsbooks at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fox Bet, and PointsBet. The odds listed next to each awards candidate are the best and worst lines available among these five sportsbooks. Now, as we sit a mere three weeks away from opening night in Tampa Bay, this column will explore the MVP landscape at length. Before we dive into this year’s contenders and interesting long shots, let’s first lay out what we’re looking for in an MVP candidate using patterns and trends discussed in my column: NFL Awards: Who Wins and Why.

What We’re Looking for in an MVP Candidate

• We want to bet on a quarterback whose team is reasonably capable of winning 12 games.
• Further, we want to bet on a quarterback whose team can realistically contend for the top spot in their conference.
• We are looking for a QB that is capable of leading the league in touchdowns, which means we are looking for the QB headlining one of the league’s best offenses.
• We are looking for a QB that is capable of finishing in the top three in both rating and QBR while finishing within the top five in EPA.
• We want a QB that is capable of having a historically significant season.
• The overwhelming majority of recent MVPs were first-round picks.
• Betting on an MVP longshot is not unreasonable.
• Standard production such as passing yards, rushing yards, completion percentage, or interception ratio are less important factors in the MVP race than you might think.

The Favorites

Patrick Mahomes