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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS

We’ve spent the past three seasons gathering a large enough sample to confidently review contest results to identify where we have an edge and how we can improve our overall lineup-building process. We recommend reviewing this article to understand macro concepts suited for beating large-field showdown tournaments. There you’ll find our thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction, and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups aren’t duplicated. Like most DFS formats, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness, optimal correlation, and max projected points meet. We’ll continually update this section with the latest showdown strategy and trends as the 2023 season progresses. Below you can review winning lineups from the 2020-22 seasons to better familiarize yourself with winning roster construction.

  

Historical Winning Lineups

Note: ‘Total ownership’ is calculated using each player’s Total Ownership % (Flex+CPT) from the flagship GPP on DraftKings

 

Packers at Bears ($47700 Salary Used)  (191.66% Total Ownership): Captain Allen Robinson, Aaron Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, Packers DST – Lineup entered (3) times

Steelers at Patriots ($46100) (223.0%): Captain Tom Brady, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Stephen Gostkowski, Rex Burkhead – (1)

Texans at Saints ($49900) (244.79%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Wil Lutz – (13)

Broncos at Raiders ($49000) (240.32%): Captain Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Brandon McManus – (1)

Buccaneers at Panthers ($48500) (225.70%): Captain Chris Godwin, Cam Newton, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Joey Slye – (1)

Eagles at Falcons ($49300) (253.86%): Captain Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins

Browns at Jets ($48300) (237.27%): Captain Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell, Browns DST, Austin Seibert, D’ernest Johnson – (4)

Titans at Jaguars ($48600) (258.3%): Captain Marcus Mariota, Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark Jr., Jaguars DST, Adam Humphries – (1)

Rams at Browns ($49700) (238.92%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Greg Zuerlein – 

Bears at Redskins ($50000) (235.64%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Bears DST, Paul Richardson Jr., Taylor Gabriel – (11)

Eagles at Packers ($47300) (245.93%): Captain Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison – (4)

Cowboys at Saints ($47800) (231.88%): Captain Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys DST, Wil Lutz, Saints DST – (3)

Bengals at Steelers ($48700) (198.22%): Captain James Conner, Mason Rudolph, Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, Steelers DST, Jaylen Samuels – (1)

Rams at Seahawks ($50000) (273.06%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Gerald Everett, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Greg Zuerlein – (748)

Colts at Chiefs ($47200) (241.73%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Colts DST, Byron Pringle – (1)

Browns at 49ers ($46400) (239.74%): Captain Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, 49ers DST – (4)

Giants at Patriots ($46700) (322.95%): Captain Patriots DST, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, James White, Brandon Bolden – (53)

Steelers at Chargers ($44700) (198.69%): Captain James Conner, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Steelers DST – (1)

Lions at Packers ($49800) (265.43%): Captain Matt Prater, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams  – (23)

Chiefs at Broncos ($47000) (225.37%): Captain Chief DST, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman – (1)

Eagles at Cowboys ($46300) (231.89%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cowboys DST, Dallas Goedert, Brett Maher – (4)

Patriots at Jets ($48800) (242.5%): Captain Patriots DST, Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, James White, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas – (73)

Redskins at Vikings ($49900) (262.92%): Captain Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Vikings DST, Adrian Peterson, Dan Bailey, Dustin Hopkins – (343)

Packers at Chiefs ($49600) (244.78%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – (2)

Dolphins at Steelers ($49700) (259.67%): Captain JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Diontae Johnson, Allen Hurns, Chris Boswell – (8) 

49ers at Cardinals ($48800) (252.12%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Andy Isabella – (2)

Patriots at Ravens ($49600) (236.43%): Captain Julian Edelman, Lamar Jackson, James White, Mark Ingram III, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Boyle – (1)

Cowboys at Giants ($48200) (215.3%): Captain Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Daniel Jones, Cowboys DST, Jason Witten, Brett Maher – (3)

Chargers at Raiders ($49600) (284.1%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Philip Rivers, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Raiders DST – (12)

Vikings at Cowboys ($49600) (215.38%): Captain Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. – (3)

Seahawks at 49ers ($49900) (240.23%): Captain Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers DST, Deebo Samuel, Jacob Hollister – (24)

Steelers at Browns ($49100) (219.24%): Captain Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Samuels, Mason Rudolph, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Browns DST – (2)

Bears at Rams ($49800) (290.15%): Captain Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Rams DST, Tarik Cohen – (59)

Chiefs at Chargers ($49500) (182.25%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, LeSean McCoy – (14)

Colts at Texans ($49900) (258.29%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Eric Ebron, Ka’imi Fairbairn – (144)

Packers at 49ers ($46200) (217.84%): Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase McLaughlin – (1)

Ravens at Rams ($49800) (196.98%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, Willie Snead IV, Tyler Higbee – (15)

Saints at Falcons: Captain Matt Ryan, Saints DST, Russell Gage, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Calvin Ridley – (1)

Patriots at Texans ($49400) (256.39%): Captain Duke Johnson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman, James White, Kenny Stills – (74)

Vikings at Seahawks ($49700) (251.83%): Captain Rashaad Penny, Russell Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Kirk Cousins, David Moore – (22)

Cowboys at Bears ($49400) (232.33%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Ezekiel Elliott, Allen Robinson II, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, J.P. Holtz – (2)

Giants at Eagles ($47000) (200.3%): Captain Darius Slayton, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Boston Scott – (1)

Jets at Ravens ($49300) (212.82%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Mark Andrews, Jamison Crowder, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin – (15)

Bills at Steelers ($47100) (262.26%): Captain Bills DST, Josh Allen, James Conner, John Brown, James Washington, Nick Vannett – (4) 

Colts at Saints ($47500) (248.77%): Captain Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Taysom Hill, Jordan Wilkins – (1)

Rams at 49ers ($49600) (241.43%): Captain Tyler Higbee, Jared Goff, George Kittle, Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks – (4)

Chiefs at Bears ($49400) (252.12%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, Javon Wims – (7)

Packers at Vikings ($47600) (202.83%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Packers DST, Mason Crosby, Ameer Abdullah

49ers at Seahawks ($49900) (198.36%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Russell Wilson, Raheem Mostert, D.K. Metcalf, Travis Homer, Kyle Juszczyk

Titans at Patriots ($49000) (218.14%): Captain Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead, Titans DST, Nick Folk – (1)

Seahawks at Eagles ($46400) (225.92%): Captain D.K. Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Dallas Goedert, Marshawn Lynch, Jake Elliot, Seahawks DST

Titans at Ravens ($50000) (225.02%): Captain Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Hayden Hurst, Kalif Raymond – (9)

Seahawks at Packers ($49800) (240.48%): Captain Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Jason Myers, Luke Willson – (3)

Packers at 49ers ($49600) (257.82%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, 49ers DST, Robbie Gould – (30)

2020:

Texans at Chiefs ($49600) (205.03%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, David Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Akins- (36)

Cowboys at Rams ($49200) (242.03%): Captain Malcom Brown, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Sam Sloman – (2)

Steelers at Giants ($49600) (282.00%): Captain Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Jones, Benny Snell – (16)

Titans at Broncos ($47000) (268.48%): Captain Corey Davis, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Melvin Gordon III, Noah Fant, Adam Humphries – (1)

Bengals at Browns ($49800) (284.59%): Captain Nick Chubb, Joe Burrow, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah – (248)

Patriots at Seahawks ($49200) (249.63%): Captain Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, David Moore – (37)

Saints at Raiders ($49500) (249.99%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Darren Waller, Daniel Carlson, Jalen Richard – (23)

Dolphins at Jaguars ($48300) (237.04%): Captain James Robinson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, Dolphins DST – (2)

Packers at Saints ($48300) (257.44%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis – (2)

Chiefs at Ravens ($50000) (213.05%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, Devin Duvernay – (71)

Broncos at Jets ($49300) (242.83%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Tim Patrick, Brandon McManus, Sam Ficken – (46)

Eagles at 49ers ($49900) (255.58%): Captain George Kittle, Carson Wentz, Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Greg Ward, Eagles DST – (1)

Falcons at Packers ($45600) (235.72%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley II, Robert Tonyan, Jamaal Williams, Olamide Zaccheus – (1)

Buccaneers at Bears ($49900) (260.24%): Captain Ronald Jones, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Jimmy Graham, Ryan Succop – (179)

Vikings at Seahawks ($48500) (237.22%): Captain Adam Thielen, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Chris Carson, Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith – (8)

Chargers at Saints ($49700) (292.49%): Captain Mike Williams, Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, Emmanuel Sanders, Wil Lutz – (157)

Bills at Titans ($48700) (205.34%): Captain Ryan Tannehill, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Cole Beasley, T.J. Yeldon – (7)

Rams at 49ers ($49800) (238.15%): Captain George Kittle, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Reynolds – (42)

Chiefs at Bills ($49600) (220.4%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Demarcus Robinson, Darrel Williams (11)

Cardinals at Cowboys ($49300) (217.74%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Kyler Murray, Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Cardinals – (10)

Giants at Eagles ($47600) (234.85%): Captain Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Boston Scott, Sterling Shepard, Greg Ward, Wayne Gallman – (2)

Falcons at Panthers ($49700) (227.65%): Captain Curtis Samuel, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst, Younghoe Koo – (52)

Cowboys at Eagles ($46900) (296.95%): Captain Eagles DST, Carson Wentz, Travis Fulgham, Boston Scott, Jalen Reagor, Michael Gallup – (25)

Buccaneers at Giants ($49800) (254.73%): Captain Ryan Succop, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman

Packers at 49ers ($44300) (299.05%): Captain Richie James, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – (2)

Saints at Buccaneers ($49400) (181.81%): Captain Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans, Taysom Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Saints – (2)

Patriots at Jets ($48700) (249.24%): Captain Jakobi Meyers, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Rex Burkhead, Breshad Perriman, Nick Folk – (25)

Colts at Titans ($46100) (230.92%): Captain Nyheim Hines, Derrick Henry, Philip Rivers, Corey Davis, Michael Pittman, Rodrigo Blankenship – (2)

Ravens at Patriots ($49500) (276.17%): Captain Willie Snead IV, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Gus Edwards – (123)

Vikings at Bears ($44500) (165.67%): Captain Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears, Vikings – (2)

Seahawks at Cardinals ($48500) (210.92%): Captain Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, Carlos Hyde, Larry Fitzgerald – (2)

Chiefs at Raiders ($49900) (226.19%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, Le’Veon Bell – (15)

Rams at Buccaneers ($49300) (219.43%): Captain Robert Woods, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Van Jefferson – (6)

Bears at Packers ($48000) (228.09%): Captain David Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers, Allen Robinson II, Robert Tonyan, Packers, Jamaal Williams – (2)

Seahawks at Eagles ($48700) (194.13%): Captain DK Metcalf, Carson Wentz, Chris Carson, Dallas Goedert, Jason Myers, Richard Rodgers – (1)

Ravens at Steelers ($49300) (234.65%): Captain Marquise Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Benny Snell, Steelers DST, Ravens DST – (6)

Broncos at Chiefs ($48200) (266.04%): Captain Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Melvin Gordon III, Tim Patrick, Harrison Butker, Le’Veon Bell – (9)

Bills at 49ers ($50000) (283.37%): Captain Cole Beasley, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Nick Mullens, Brandon Aiyuk, Isaiah McKenzie – (209)

Patriots at Rams ($44600) (279.85%): Captain Cam Akers, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Jakobi Meyers, Rams, Damiere Byrd – (2)

Steelers at Bills ($48800) (233.91%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bills, Jaylen Samuels – (2)

Ravens at Browns ($50000) (273.6%): Captain Kareem Hunt, Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku – (109)

Chargers at Raiders ($48500) (227.86%): Captain Justin Herbert, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Henry, Tyron Johnson, Devontae Booker – (1)

Browns at Giants ($49100) (267.22%): Captain Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram – (9)

Steelers at Bengals ($48500) (224.26%): Captain Benny Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Ryan Finley, Giovani Bernard, Austin Seibert – (1)

Vikings at Saints ($49100) (226.75%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Latavius Murray, Wil Lutz – (28)

Titans at Packers ($49700) (243.92%): Captain Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Equanimeous St. Brown – (25)

Bills at Patriots ($49700) (264.62%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Zack Moss, Tyler Bass, Lee Smith – (11)

Football Team at Eagles ($49700) (329.17%): Captain Jalen Hurts, Terry McLaurin, Alex Smith, Logan Thomas, Dustin Hopkins, Boston Scott – (180)

Buccaneers at Football Team ($48400) (235.64%): Captain Taylor Heinicke, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Cam Sims – (1)

2021:

Cowboys at Buccaneers ($49300) (258.69%): Captain Rob Gronkowski, Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Antonio Brown – (39)

Bears at Rams ($46600) ($46600) (263.26%): Captain Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson Jr., Matt Gay, Van Jefferson Jr. – (4)

Ravens at Raiders ($48400) (259.6%): Captain Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Marquise Brown, Ty’Son Williams, Sammy Watkins, Hunter Renfrow – (14)

Giants at Football Team ($47900) (249.77%): Captain Terry McLaurin, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Sterling Shepard, Graham Gano – (13)

Chiefs at Ravens ($49600) (228.63%): Captain Byron Pringle, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, Demarcus Robinson – (6)

Lions at Packers ($50000) (230.14%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Quintez Cephus, Trinity Benson – (231)

Panthers at Texans ($50000) (216.97%): Captain Sam Darnold, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, Davis Mills, Chuba Hubbard, Anthony Miller – (29)

Eagles at Cowboys ($48000) (245.88%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz – (6)

Buccaneers at Patriots ($48900) (192.51%): Captain Mac Jones, Mike Evans, Jakobi Meyers, Leonard Fournette, Hunter Henry, Ryan Succop – (5)

Raiders at Chargers ($47800) (242.63%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Jared Cook, Donald Parham Jr. – (4)

Rams at Seahawks ($48800) (234.19%): Captain Robert Woods, Matthew Stafford, DK Metcalf, Darrell Henderson Jr., Tyler Higbee, Sony Michel – (13)

Buccaneers at Eagles ($48700) (330.02%): Captain Leonard Fournette, Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Antonio Brown, Zach Ertz, O.J. Howard – (306)

Seahawks at Steelers ($49800) (253.93%): Captain Alex Collins, Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chris Boswell, Pat Freiermuth – (45)

Bills at Titans ($48500) (262.7%): Captain Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Tyler Bass, Tommy Sweeney – (6)

Broncos at Browns ($49900) (288.36%): Captain D’Ernest Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams – (153)

Colts at 49ers ($45600) (264.01%): Captain Michael Pittman Jr., Carson Wentz, Deebo Samuel, Eli Mitchell, Mo Allie-Cox, Colts – (49)

Packers at Cardinals ($49500) (272.32%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Zach Ertz, Randall Cobb – (49)

Cowboys at Vikings ($49500) (230.69%): Captain Amari Cooper, Kirk Cousins, CeeDee Lamb, Adam Thielen, Cooper Rush, Cedrick Wilson – (5)

Giants at Chiefs ($49900) (212.57%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Daniel Jones, Darrel Williams, Devontae Booker, Mecole Hardman, John Ross III – (11)

Jets at Colts ($50000) (187.18%): Captain Jonathan Taylor, Carson Wentz, Elijah Moore, Josh Johnson, Nyheim Hines, Tyler Kroft – (1)

Titans at Rams ($48800) (200.46%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Geoff Swaim, Sony Michel, Titans – (1)

Bears at Steelers ($49300) (236.12%): Captain Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Chris Boswell – (24)

Ravens at Dolphins ($46700) (226.65%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman, Dolphins, Albert Wilson – (1)

Chiefs at Raiders ($50000) (205.61%): Captain Darrel Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Byron Pringle – (13)

Rams at 49ers ($49700) (219.04%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Robbie Gould, 49ers – (29)

Patriots at Falcons ($39600) (190.57%): Captain Patriots DST, Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Nelson Agholor, Nick Folk – (4)

Steelers at Chargers ($49600) (247.76%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Chris Boswell, Donald Parham Jr. – (53)

Giants at Buccaneers ($49800) (246.29%): Captain Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Saquon Barkley, Ryan Succop, Ronald Jones II – (36)

2022:

Bills at Rams ($49300): Captain Bills, Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie

Buccaneers at Cowboys ($43500) (156.6%): Captain Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Dalton Schultz, Julio Jones, Buccaneers, Ryan Succop  – (1)

Denver at Seattle ($47900) (194.3%): Captain Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, Brandon McManus, Will Dissly – (4)

Chargers at Chiefs ($48500) (164.2%): Captain Mike Williams, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Gerald Everett, Justin Watson – (1)

Bears at Packers ($49500): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, David Montgomery, Sammy Watkins, Mason Crosby, Ryan Griffin

Vikings at Eagles ($49000): Captain Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, Irv Smith, Quez Watkins

Steelers at Browns: ($49700) (173.0%): Captain Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, David Njoku, Browns – (34)

49ers at Broncos: ($49100) (178.8%): Captain Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Cortland Sutton, Jeff Wilson Jr., Melvin Gordon III, Broncos – (3)

Cowboys at Giants: ($50000): Captain Graham Gano, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Daniel Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Brett Maher

Dolphins at Bengals ($49800) (194.8%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst, Trent Sherfield – (47)

Chiefs at Buccaneers ($48100) (169.3%): Captain Mike Evans, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Matthew Wright, Rachaad White – (3)

Rams at 49ers ($49800): Captain Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyler Higbee, 49ers, Matt Gay

Colts at Broncos ($32900) (142.1%): Captain Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Broncos, Brandon McManus, Chase McLaughlin, Colts – (1)

Bengals at Ravens ($48900) (263.1%): Captain Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay, Justin Tucker – (12)

Raiders at Chiefs ($50000): Captain Travis Kelce, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Daniel Carlson

2023:

Lions at Chiefs ($47500) (224.4%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Josh Reynolds, Blake Bell – (12)

Cowboys at Giants ($44200) (193.2%): Captain Cowboys, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aubrey, KaVontae Turpin – (1)

Bills at Jets ($47300) (156.3%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Breece Hall, Tyler Bass, Greg Zuerlein, Jets – (1)

Vikings at Eagles ($49800) (236.3%): Captain D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, DeVonta Smith, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison – (340)

Dolphins at Patriots ($49600) (218.0%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Rhamondre Stevenson, Mac Jones, Hunter Henry, Salvon Ahmed – (24)

Browns at Steelers ($48400) (210.4%): Captain George Pickens, Nick Chubb, Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Steelers, Jerome Ford – (1)

Rams at Bengals ($49900) (208.3%): Captain Ja’Marr Chase, Matthew Stafford, Joe Mixon, Tutu Atwell, Evan McPherson, Bengals – (24)

Giants at 49ers ($49600) (231.3%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Matt Breida, George Kittle, Ronnie Bell – (125)

Steelers at Raiders ($49600) (170.2%): Captain Davante Adams, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jakobi Meyers, Steelers, Calvin Austin III, Chris Boswell – (10)

Chiefs at Jets ($48200) (190.1%): Captain Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes, Garrett Wilson, Zach Wilson, Allen Lazard, Noah Gray – (7)

Lions at Packers ($50000) (210.4%): Captain David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Lions – (74)

Seahawks at Giants ($48800) (308.1%): Captain Seahawks, Kenneth Walker III, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, DK Metcalf, Wan’Dale Robinson – (31)

Packers at Raiders ($46700) (219.9%): Captain Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs, Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian Watson, AJ Dillon, Raiders – (15)

Cowboys at 49ers ($46800) (205.5%): Captain George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Brock Purdy, 49ers, Jordan Mason – (2)

Bears at Commanders ($49400) (226.3%): Captain DJ Moore, Justin Fields, Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson – (64)

Giants at Bills ($47500) (182.1%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Wan’Dale Robinson, Deonte Harty, Quintin Morris – (2)

Broncos at Chiefs ($49900) (213.3%): Captain Courtland Sutton, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chiefs, Harrison Butker, Kadarius Toney – (18)

Cowboys at Chargers ($49600) (173.8%): Captain Dak Prescott, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Brandon Aubrey, Gerald Everett – (3)

 

 

When we review winning lineups, we can think backward and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the Week 1 2020 MNF matchup between the Titans and Broncos, pricing was incredibly soft and it was easy to lock in top projected player Derrick Henry into the captain spot without making additional sacrifices to the rest of our lineup. The field followed suit, owning Henry in the captain spot at a 31.4% rate. At elevated ownership, it made sense to look for paths where Henry could be outscored by another option; one such path was to assume the Titans had success through the air. Corey Davis at captain immediately provided leverage off of Henry and fellow WR A.J. Brown, who was also highly owned. The winning lineup paired Davis with QB Ryan Tannehill and included Henry in the flex, locking up a majority of the team’s offensive production. Davis’ cheap $9,000 captain salary and lack of high-priced options from the Broncos side kept the lineup’s total salary ($47,000) well below the cap without sacrificing too many projected points and ensured it wouldn’t be duplicated despite high cumulative ownership (268.48%). These are the types of decisions we have to think through during showdown lineup construction in an effort to maximize correlation and uniqueness.

 

TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

 

In a professional football game that more closely resembles a B1G matchup between Iowa and Nebraska, the 2-10 New England Patriots will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the playoff-hopeful Steelers as 6-point road underdogs in a game featuring an exiguous 30-point total. Lacking continuity at the game’s most important position — and frankly at the other 10 positions on offense — Patriots OC Bill O’Brien has become one of the league’s run-heaviest play-callers after adjusting for game script. In fact, outside of their Week 9 tilt against Washington where they posted a blistering +13.0% PROE, New England has posted just two other individual games with a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation: Week 1 against the Eagles (+7%) and Week 7 against Buffalo (+2%). In total, they rank 27th in PROE (-4.6%), dropping back at a 56% situation-neutral clip through Week 13. Even as a 6-point road dog, I suspect the rush rate will remain elevated here against a Steelers defense that has been slightly better against the pass than run thus far. Following the firing of OC Matt Canada, interim OC Eddie Faulkner and new play-caller Mike Sullivan have a two-game sample for us to reflect on. During that stretch, they posted a meager -10% PROE, going -7% in Week 12 against Cincinnati and -13% in Week 13 against Arizona, dropping back at the league’s fifth-lowest situation-neutral rate (46%) as a result. Now back home as a 6-point favorite with QB1 Kenny Pickett (ankle) sidelined, we should expect another run-first approach from Faulkner, Sullivan, and Co. even against what has been the league’s best run defense by EPA per Play standards (-0.216). I’m not overly optimistic this game will exceed even already historically low expectations and suspect not just points but play volume will be at a premium.

Unsurprising on a short week as the season turns for the home stretch, the Patriots’ injury report is longer than a CVS receipt and features questionable tags on a handful of impact skill-position players that could render our midweek thoughts unusable if injury assumptions are ultimately wrong.

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