Silva’s Shy Away 30

1. Travis Kelce

I expect Kelce to lead all tight ends in fantasy points — I have him ranked in his own tier positionally — but remain worried about Kelce’s falloff risk when comparing him to other players going in the middle of the first round. Kelce’s ADP is roughly fifth overall; I have him at No. 10. Kelce turns 34 in early October. Straight up, I’m ranking Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, Stefon Diggs, Austin Ekeler, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown over him.

2. Saquon Barkley

This is purely an Average Draft Position issue; Barkley is consistently going in the top 10 fantasy picks and often top eight in home leagues. I’ve got him ranked around pick No. 16. I do view Barkley as a safe RB1 bet with an extreme-volume projection but question his upside when compared to Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb, both of whom I have ranked higher and both of whom carry lower ADPs than Saquon.

3. Bijan Robinson

I have Robinson ranked as a top-18 overall player but struggle to buy into him at his consensus top-10 ADP. My concerns stem from Arthur Smith’s willingness to incorporate Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson in a three-man backfield, Atlanta’s extreme run-first philosophy that will curb Robinson’s receiving usage, and 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder’s wildcard quarterback play.

4. Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes’ ADP in home leagues somehow lies on the first-round fringe despite a 34-year-old go-to guy in Travis Kelce and a revolving-door wide receiver crew. Positionally, I’m taking Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen over him straight up and could easily envision Lamar Jackson outscoring Mahomes, as well.

5. Derrick Henry

Henry will be over 29.5 years old when the season starts and accumulated an unholy 2,145 carries on his tires over his last eight football seasons. He’s never been a high-volume pass catcher, while Tennessee’s offensive line looks to be among the worst in the league. It’s another #FadeTheBigDog year for me.