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Name: Adam Levitan, Former King GPP Bro
Prop: Who will win MVP?
Bet: Jalen Hurts +380
Book: Caesar’s

Notes: The regular-season MVP award has become a quarterback award. The Super Bowl voting is a bit different — since 2001, it’s been decided by 16 football writers/broadcasters (80% of the vote) and 20% fans. During that 24-game sample, quarterbacks have won 15 times (63%). Over the last 15 years, as the NFL has gotten more pass-centric, quarterbacks have won it 11 times (73%).

Still, thanks to the Tush Push and the high-scoring environment, Jalen Hurts is incredibly likely to be a big part of any Eagles win. And given that the Eagles are only a 1.5-point dog here, Hurts’ +380 odds (implied to win it just 20.8% of the time) are wild. It’s because everyone assumes Saquon Barkley, not Hurts, would carry the Eagles to a win. But Saquon can play well and still not get the TDs thanks to the Tush Push — there were nine games this season Barkley didn’t score any TDs.

 

Name: Anthony Amico, Special Teams Hardo
Prop: Jake Elliott Field Goals Made
Bet: OVER 1.5 +111
Book: DraftKings

Notes: Public sentiment on Elliott is low after missing a kick in the NFC Championship, and a couple of big ones earlier in the season. However, he has made at least two FGs in 13 of 20 games this year. While Nick Sirianni has a reputation for being aggressive on fourth down, the Eagles’ extreme penchant for running the football has created more kicking situations. Over 6.5 kicking points at around -130 is a suitable alternative here.

 

Name: Cort Smith, Establishing Vibes
Prop: Largest Lead of Game
Bet: Under 13.5 Points -115
Book: DraftKings

Notes: You can find this prop at DK under Game Props > Largest Lead. I’m going back to the well after playing this same prop in this space for last year’s game and cashing. It’s a similar setup to last year, with a tight spread in the 1-2 point range and a point total in the high 40s. Kansas City’s average margin of victory this year is 3.7 points, just 11th best — they’re not the high-flying Chiefs of Super Bowl’s past. Philadelphia’s average margin of victory is second best at 10.5 points, though they haven’t faced a team as good as K.C. This will be their toughest test yet, and I expect a tight battle.

 

Name: John Daigle, Former Dallas Mavericks Fan
Prop: Jalen Hurts Touchdowns
Bet: 2+ TDs +600
Book: FanDuel

Notes: My fear for Kansas City’s defense is that their front seven has cratered at the worst possible time, permitting a combined 4.8 yards per carry to Joe Mixon (18/88/1) and James Cook (13/85/2) in two postseason games and, dating back to Week 17, at least 39 rushing yards to four consecutive QBs. Clearly past the concussion and knee injuries that plagued him through the Divisional Round, Jalen Hurts spiked DC Steve Spagnuolo for 15/70/3 on the ground the last time these two teams squared off in Super Bowl LVII.

 

Name: Jack Miller
Prop: Will There Be a First-Quarter Interception?
Bet: No -430
Book: Caesars (only available in some states; it’s in IL, not available in NY)

Notes: Enough with the fun long shots. Let’s play a prop that will make you hate your life for the game’s first 15 minutes. FanDuel’s de-vigged price for Jalen Hurts to not throw an interception is -144. For Patrick Mahomes, it’s -113. If you multiply these together — more on why this is imperfect methodology momentarily — you get a 31.3% chance of zero interceptions in the game, or a 68.7% chance that there is at least one interception in this game. Note that Mahomes and Hurts each not throwing an interception in this game are not independent events, but they are closest to independent events in the first quarter with teams going through their scripted plays and game script not yet a concern, so I would assume pretty minimal negative correlation in the first quarter. If interceptions were evenly distributed throughout a game and you took that number (or, more realistically, something a bit above that number to account for them not being independent bets over a full game) and divided by four, the methodology above would get you to a point where this price is at least semi-defensible. However, they are not, and a disproportionate amount of picks happen in the final 45 minutes. Overall, less than 17% of interceptions this year took place in the first quarter (checked two sources, one had 16.3% of picks and the other had 16.5%). Yes, five of Mahomes’ 11 interceptions this season took place in quarter No. 1, but he also has eight picks on 723 career playoff pass attempts, which seems like signal to me given how clear it is that K.C. has eased through the regular season in recent seasons. There certainly could be a first-quarter pick, but I feel pretty confident saying there won’t be at least 81.1% of the time.

 

Name: Sam Brott
Prop: Number of players to record a reception
Bet #1: Eagles UNDER 5.5, -130
Book #1: DraftKings, ESPN
Bet #2: Chiefs UNDER 8.5, -175
Book #2: DraftKings
Bet #3: Combined OVER 12.5, -160
Book #3: ESPN

Notes: Here’s a fun trio if you want to try to perfectly thread the needle. Both the Eagles and the Chiefs have tightened up their receiving rotations over their last two playoff games, and both of the individual team props here would have hit in consecutive weeks. Now in the biggest game of the season, I don’t expect either team to expand playing time or targets for their ancillary weapons. Our in-house NFL sims support all three of these bets, showing 1% value on the Eagles U 5.5, 9% value on the Chiefs U 8.5, and 4% value on the Total O 12.5. If we can get exactly five players to record a reception from the Eagles and eight players from the Chiefs — the specific numbers we project to be the most likely outcome for each team — that would give us the perfect 13 to thread the needle and sweep all three.

 

Name: Mike Leone, Man vs. Machine Loser
Prop: Either QB To Throw For 350+ Yards
Bet: Yes +650
Book: Caesars

Notes: On the surface, this feels like a donkey bet. Neither QB has thrown for 350+ yards all season. And even going back further, there’s nothing in the game logs to support this bet. However, there are a few factors at play that make this plus-money bet worth firing at.

Most importantly, this game is not representative of a normal game for these two teams. The combined record of these two teams right now is 34-7. So these teams have mostly played in favorable game scripts all season long, which has had a meaningful impact on pass rates. Going head to head, obviously there has to be a loser here, increasing the chances we get a pass-happy second half from one of these two teams.

Secondly, both of these teams play the majority of their games outdoors and in less-than-stellar weather conditions, especially recently given A) it’s been winter and B) both teams have played their five combined playoff games at home. The dome effect will have a positive impact on both pass volume and pass efficiency.

Finally, these teams are relatively healthy, especially at the skill positions. Jalen Hurts has A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley at his disposal. The Chiefs have the most available weapons they’ve had all year. In particular, Hollywood Brown has inched closer to a 70% route share in the playoffs, and rookie Xavier Worthy has seen a meaningful second-half bump, clearing a 23% target share in five straight games. Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are also rested and ready to go.

 

Name: Sam Walczak, Projections Loyalist
Prop: Patrick Mahomes Pass Yards Alt Overs (300+, 350+, 400+)
Book: DraftKings

Notes: The props market is underestimating the chance Mahomes has a big yardage total in this game. Relative to current prices on DraftKings, we see edges on:

  • Patrick Mahomes 300+ Pass Yards (currently +268 on DK, would play to +225)
  • Patrick Mahomes 350+ Pass Yards (currently +840 on DK, would play to +600)
  • Patrick Mahomes 400+ Pass Yards (currently +3500 on DK, would play to +2000)

 

Name: Conner Evans, Machine Loyalist
Prop: Total Players to Record a Rushing Attempt
Bet: Under 7.5, +155
Book: Caesars

Notes: I’m a simple man — at least when it comes to betting. Our numbers say this is the best bet ($60 EV), so I’ll take it. Now, could low-volume rushers introduce some weird edge effects the sims don’t fully capture? Probably. Could Andy Reid cook up something so unholy it sends our projection team into an existential crisis? Absolutely. But with a simulated probability of 61% vs an implied 39%, I think there is more than enough wiggle room for this to still be a safe bet.

 

Name: Will, NBA Minutes Projector Extraordinaire
Prop: Most Receiving Yards
Bet: DeVonta Smith +600 (DK/C’s)

Notes: After back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, this hasn’t been DeVonta Smith’s strongest campaign — he finished with 833 yards and has seen just four targets in each of the past three games. But I’m betting on talent. Smith was the leading receiver in Super Bowl LVII, and he has a real chance to repeat that performance.

The Chiefs’ wide target distribution works in our favor, and Smith showed signs of heating up late in the season, averaging 93 yards over his final three regular-season games. However, the Eagles have been playing from ahead throughout the playoffs, leaning on a run-heavy approach that has kept his raw stats in check. That’s likely why we’re getting a discount here.

Still, his target share has remained solid at 19%, 20%, and 14% over the past three games, with our projections team expecting a 23.5% share on Sunday. At +600, backing the former Heisman winner to take the receiving crown is a bet worth making.

 

Name: Patrick Barnes, YouTube Guy
Prop: Hurts to throw an INT
Bet: Over 0.5, +155
Book: Circa
Book #2: Caesars, +140

Notes: I’m betting the over on 0.5 interceptions for Jalen Hurts at +155 because of the increased passing volume and the Chiefs’ defensive game plan. Hurts’ pass attempts line is set at 27.5, which I’d also bet the over on, as Steve Spagnuolo will likely sell out to stop Saquon Barkley, forcing Hurts to throw more. Spagnuolo is known for disguising coverages, throwing exotic blitzes, and making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket. With Hurts’ career interception rate at 2%, he averages about one interception every 50 pass attempts. For 27.5 attempts, that gives him a 55% chance of throwing at least one interception. Has he gone 206 attempts without throwing one? Yes. But as they say…He’s due! At +155, you’re getting implied odds of about 39%, offering strong value.

 

Name: Nick Wallin, YouTube Thumbnails
Prop: Gatorade Color
Bet: Purple +225
Book: BetMGM

Notes: Sure, you could bet Chiefs ML -125 or Patrick Mahomes MVP +105…OR you can grab Purple Gatorade at +225 if you’re trying to “reduce the juice” (pun intended). Everyone is talking about the Chiefs’ three-peat, but no one is talking about the Purple Gatorade three-peat. Each of the past two years after the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, the Gatorade poured on Chief Reid was Purple. Factoring in that a good amount of players and teams have been known to be superstitious, as well as the fact that the team could very well just prefer the taste of Purple Gatorade, this is a fun bet to place if you think the Chiefs will win, though the bet is still live if the Eagles win, just without as much “data” to back it up.

 

Name: Pat Thorman, Party Pooper
Prop: Saquon Barkley Longest Rush O/U 25.5 yards
Bet: Under -120
Book: DraftKings

Notes: If you’re looking for a technically plus-EV bet that leaves you with a queasy feeling the entire game, here’s your huckleberry. Saquon hit this over in nine of 19 games this year, including every playoff contest — so there’s a real shot this number climbs before kickoff. The Chiefs’ defense, however, simply doesn’t give up big plays — and only the Ravens allowed fewer explosive runs.

Kansas City surrendered just six 25+ yard runs this season — and three of those were turned in by quarterbacks. It’s possible you hate yourself for fading the freight train everyone outside of Kansas City is rooting for, and you’ll spend the night feeling like you had too many pregame deviled eggs — but unders aren’t supposed to be fun.