Survivor Pool Breakdown: Week 4

We have another slate where ownership will be largely concentrated on the two most popular options. Let’s take a look at those as well as several other survivor-relevant matchups.

Vikings vs. Dolphins

Spread: Vikings -10.5

Total: 38.5

ETR Ownership: 46.1%

In my preseason survivor pool preview, I said figuring out when to play Minnesota was one of the keys to building a plan.

From a pure talent standpoint, the 2026 Miami Dolphins are close to the Hue Jackson Cleveland Browns. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the Dolphins won between one and three games, where a split with the Jets is their best shot to get one.

Anyone can win a game in the NFL and outlier runouts happen multiple times a year; see Seattle at Washington last week. But the Dolphins really need several things to go right given their talent level, as teams with below-average trenches, a bad secondary, and no wide receiver room can be annihilated in multiple phases, and that combination is extremely rare.

Now, Brian Flores has a history of devouring quarterbacks like Malik Willis. Flores is a Bill Belichick-level nightmare for an inconsistent passer behind a mediocre-at-best offensive line. Flores is also among the very best I’ve ever seen at handling mobile quarterbacks. In fact, if I could pick any defensive coordinator in the league to beat Lamar Jackson in a game, Flores would be my zero-hesitation selection. That alone gives me comfort in playing Miami, especially at home. Factor in that Flores’ guys know this game is personal for him, and I’d be surprised if Miami exceeds expectations on offense.

Minnesota’s offense, on the other hand, is still a box of unknowns given that Kyler Murray has only played one full game, but the early returns are not very appealing. Factor in that Justin Jefferson has an ankle injury, and that looks worse, even if Jefferson ends up playing. I still think Flores’ defense and the potential offensive ceiling against a no-pass rush/bad-secondary Dolphins team give Minnesota plenty of paths to victory, but the Vikings’ offense is a genuine concern.

Long term, this is Minnesota’s best possible matchup. Their next most appealing spots look like Week 12 vs. Atlanta and maybe Week 17 at a Jets team that might be playing a very volatile, young quarterback at that stage.

I’ll also add this: Two of my entries are devoted to playing against Miami virtually every week, which I very rarely do given that the versus Miami option is going to be highly owned virtually every week.

Best Remaining Matchups: Week 12 vs. ATL, Week 13 vs. CAR, Week 16 vs. WAS, Week 17 at NYJ

Ravens vs. Titans