The Rundown: Week 8

 

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 8. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

 

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Rams @ Cowboys, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

 

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace. The Cowboys’ offense can be frustrating at times, but it is light-years beyond the Cardinals and Steelers — who did not truly push the Rams throughout their matchups. The Rams will no doubt try to run, but they’ll have a tough time, and the Dallas offense should eventually help speed Los Angeles up. It ranks fifth in situation-neutral pace and first in average play-clock seconds. The Cowboys are throwing at the sixth-highest clip during neutral situations and scoring at the fifth-highest rate on a per-play basis. HC Sean McVay won’t play slowly for long if the Rams fall behind, as they’re first in pace when losing by at least a touchdown.
• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Cowboys’ DL (1st) > the Rams’ OL (20th) as the week’s fourth-biggest mismatch. The Cowboys’ DL ranks first in pass-rush win rate, 10th in QB knockdown percentage, and ninth in sacks per pass attempt. The Rams’ OL ranks 27th in pass-block win rate, 18th in QB hits given up, and 17th in sacks per pass attempt given up. This Cowboys front simply outclasses the Rams’ blockers from a personnel standpoint, and even with a quality scheme and triggerman, they will need to likely win in spite of, not because of, their line’s performance in this game.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed both Brandin Cooks ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD) and Michael Gallup ($3,400 DK, $5,500 FD) as great plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Dallas is coming off of a bye and both their second and third WRs seem underpriced for their current roles. Gallup led the team in targets in their last outing with 10 (a monstrous 33.3% share) on 70% of snaps, while Cooks was more productive with his four targets (4/36/1). Dallas is running a ton of three-WR sets and the offense is concentrated on these two and alpha CeeDee Lamb.
• Buy Leone: Tony Pollard ($7,500 DK, 2.8 PPG underperformance — fourth highest among all RBs) appears in this week’s model.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Even while Matthew Stafford has played like a legitimate top-10 real-life quarterback, he’s yet to exceed 17.2 standard-scoring fantasy points in an individual start,…Dallas is allowing the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy points to signal-callers.”
• “Darrell Henderson operated as L.A.’s Week 7 lead back versus Pittsburgh, out-snapping Royce Freeman 39 to 29 and out-touching him 19 to 12…I expect a similar usage distribution at Dallas.”
• “Tutu Atwell’s target share is a microscopic 9% since Kupp’s return.”
• “Tyler Higbee’s 35 targets rank 10th in the league at his position.”
• “Dak Prescott’s Week 8 matchup is middling across the board; the Rams rank 16th in yards per attempt allowed (6.4) and 18th in fantasy QB points surrendered.”
• “I’m interested in buying TonyPollard aggressively at this point in the season. His bye is out of the way, the Cowboys have shown no inclination toward bringing in competition, and Dallas’ offensive line is finally near full strength…”
• “CeeDee Lamb’s to-date box-score production has somewhat underwhelmed because he has scored just once, but positive-touchdown regression should be coming.”
• “Only five NFL defenses have permitted more fantasy tight end points than the Rams. Jake Ferguson still profiles as a touchdown-or-bust streamer punt with the NFL’s fourth-most targets inside opposing 10-yard lines (6) but a measly 31.7 yards-per-game average on the year.”
• “Michael Gallup hasn’t hit paydirt in a regular-season game since last Christmas Eve. Brandin Cooks still hasn’t cleared 40 yards in a game all year. He’s a WR4/flex dart.”

 

 

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Vikings @ Packers, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

 

• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Romeo Doubs ($4,900 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. Christian Watson seems like he’ll play, but Romeo Doubs makes our DraftKings criteria regardless. It’s worth noting that Watson is priced all the way down to $5,100, so he barely misses this list with the same amount of projected targets as Doubs (6.3). Doubs leads all Packers with a 21.2% season-long target share.
• Buy Leone: Romeo Doubs ($4,900 DK, 1.0 PPG underperformance) and Alexander Mattison ($5,600 DK, 2.5 PPG underperformance) both appear in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that Mattison lost a ton of work late to Cam Akers in Week 7. He may have been banged up, or the Vikings may have had enough of Mattison. At this point, Akers getting 50% of the work is at least in play.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Only eight teams are allowing fewer yards per pass attempt than the Packers (6.1), and just three have coughed up fewer passing TDs (6). Especially in such a low-totaled contest, I’m trying to avoid chasing Justin Jefferson-less Kirk Cousins’ Week 7 box-score result into Week 8.”
• “Alexander Mattison remains a dicey flex option with a continually to-be-determined weekly role. Cam Akers hasn’t reached a playable point.”
• “T.J. Hockenson is a volume machine, having drawn 8+ targets in six of seven games.”
• “Regardless of opponent, Jordan Addison profiles as an every-week WR2 with WR1 upside as the most explosive playmaker in a pass-first attack.”
• “…K.J. Osborn hasn’t cleared 50 yards all season. He’s just a WR3/flex option against a Packers defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy wideout points.”
• “The Vikings’ D/ST is live facing Jordan Love, whose tendency to unravel when pressured is tanking Green Bay’s offense. Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate (56%) headlined by NFL sack leader Danielle Hunter (9), while the Packers’ offensive line has been destroyed by injuries, and Love is a mistake waiting to happen with bodies around him.”
• “Aaron Jones finally rejoined the Week 7 lineup nearly a month after originally going down but played just 36% of the Packers’ offensive snaps and was out-touched 17 to 11 by plodding A.J. Dillon against Denver. Jones then failed to practice early this week. I’m honestly not sure what to do with Jones here.”
• “Romeo Doubs is rarely an exciting box-score bet, but he does lead Green Bay in targets, receptions (23), yards (258), TDs (4), and first-down conversions (16) on passes from Love.”
• “Christian Watson’s durability has frustrated immensely, yet his role is secure and his big-play ability is indisputable.”

 

 

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Falcons @ Titans, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)