Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 12

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 12. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 12 Bye: Broncos, Dolphins, Commanders, and Chargers

DL Rankings – Week 12

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Rams
4. Browns – DE Alex Wright missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a quad injury.
5. Eagles
6. Seahawks
7. Steelers
8. Packers
9. Vikings
10. Giants
11. Lions
12. Chiefs
13. Jaguars – DE Travon Walker missed practice on Thursday with a knee injury.
14. Titans
15. Cardinals
16. Cowboys
17. Bills
18. Patriots – DT Milton Williams went on short-term injured reserve after a Week 11 ankle injury.
19. Bucs
20. Falcons
21. Ravens
22. 49ers
23. Colts – DT DeForest Buckner is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 14 with a neck injury
24. Raiders
25. Saints
26. Jets
27. Chargers
28. Bears
29. Dolphins
30. Commanders
31. Bengals – DE Trey Hendrickson remains out of practice due to injury.
32. Panthers

OL Rankings – Week 12

1. Bills
2. Broncos – LG Ben Powers is on short-term injured reserve due to a biceps injury, which is expected to keep him out until Week 12 or 13.
3. Colts
4. Bucs – LG Ben Bredeson returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday after missing the last few weeks with a hamstring injury.
5. Eagles – RT Lane Johnson is out this week with a foot injury.
6. Commanders
7. Rams
8. Chiefs
9. Vikings
10. Bears
11. Patriots
12. Lions
13. Steelers
14. Panthers
15. Ravens
16. Cowboys
17. Seahawks
18. Jets
19. Jaguars
20. Falcons
21. 49ers
22. Giants
23. Cardinals – OTs Jonah Williams and Kelvin Beachum both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with injuries.
24. Saints
25. Packers
26. Browns
27. Dolphins
28. Bengals
29. Titans
30. Texans
31. Raiders – LT Kolton Miller was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 4 and is still expected to be out this week.
32. Chargers

Biggest Week 12 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Browns DL (4th) > Raiders OL (31st)
2. Seahawks DL (6th) > Titans OL (29th)
3. Vikings DL (9th) > Packers OL (25th)
4. Jaguars DL (13th) > Cardinals OL (23rd)
5. Eagles DL (5th) > Cowboys OL (16th)

Biggest Week 12 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Patriots OL (11th) > Bengals DL (31st)

DL > OL

1. Browns DL > Raiders OL

Key matchups: Edge rusher Myles Garrett vs. OTs Stone Forsythe and DJ Glaze, DTs Maliek Collins and Mason Graham vs. the Raiders’ interior trio

Notes: The Browns’ DL ranks first in pass-rush win rate, ninth in pressure percentage, and second in sacks per pass attempt. DE Myles Garrett is first overall in sack score. The Raiders’ OL ranks 21st in pass-block win rate, 14th in QB hits given up, and 27th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

With the league’s best pass rusher and frontrunner for his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year Award in Myles Garrett, the Browns have a strong interior duo around him in Maliek Collins and Mason Graham and an aggressive (sixth in blitz rate), man coverage-heavy back seven behind them. This is close to the worst-case scenario in terms of quality and style of opponent for a bad Raiders offensive line without even a single above-average starter. QB Geno Smith’s aggressive playing style will at least allow for some shots downfield, but those will come under extreme duress for the majority of this game.