Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 15

 

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 15. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

 

Week 15 Bye Week: None

 

 

DL Rankings – Week 15

1. Cowboys
2. 49ers – DT Arik Armstead suffered a knee injury two weeks ago against the Eagles that will likely keep him out for the second game in a row. DT Javon Hargrave missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury but was doing conditioning drills on the side on Thursday.
3. Steelers
4. Jets
5. Eagles
6. Chiefs
7. Browns – DE Myles Garrett suffered a significant shoulder injury in Week 12 but is determined to keep playing despite the pain.
8. Giants
9. Titans – DT Jeffery Simmons is expected to miss his second consecutive game due to a right knee injury.
10. Packers
11. Ravens
12. Vikings
13. Jaguars
14. Colts
15. Texans
16. Rams
17. Raiders
18. Chargers – DE Joey Bosa was put on short-term injured reserve with a foot injury suffered in Week 11.
19. Bengals
20. Panthers
21. Bills
22. Broncos
23. Lions – DT Alim McNeill was put on short-term injured reserve with a knee injury.
24. Commanders
25. Patriots
26. Bears – DE Yannick Ngakoue is out for the year due to an injury.
27. Seahawks
28. Dolphins – Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips is out for the year with a torn Achilles.
29. Bucs
30. Saints
31. Falcons
32. Cardinals

 

OL Rankings – Week 15

1. Eagles
2. Cowboys
3. Ravens
4. Chiefs
5. Lions
6. Bucs
7. 49ers
8. Colts
9. Bengals
10. Bills
11. Falcons
12. Texans – LG Tytus Howard is out for the year with a knee injury. RT George Fant missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hip injury.
13. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
14. Browns
15. Seahawks
16. Rams
17. Vikings – RT Brian O’Neill is out this week with an ankle injury.
18. Broncos
19. Bears
20. Packers – LG Elgton Jenkins was limited on Wednesday with a shoulder injury but missed practice on Thursday, putting his availability this weekend in question.
21. Jaguars – LT Cam Robinson is on injured reserve with a knee injury.
22. Saints
23. Patriots
24. Cardinals
25. Dolphins – C Connor Williams is out for the year with a torn ACL.
26. Giants
27. Raiders
28. Commanders
29. Steelers
30. Jets
31. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is out for the season with an MCL injury.
32. Titans

 

Biggest Week 15 DL > OL Mismatches

1. 49ers DL (2nd) > Cardinals OL (24th)
2. Jets DL (4th) > Dolphins OL (25th)
3. Chiefs DL (6th) > Patriots OL (23rd)
4. Browns DL (7th) > Bears OL (19th)
5. Eagles DL (5th) > Seahawks (15th)

 

Biggest Week 15 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Eagles OL (1st) > Seahawks DL (27th)
2. Chiefs OL (4th) > Patriots DL (25th)
3. 49ers OL (7th) > Cardinals DL (32nd)

 

DL > OL

1. 49ers DL > Cardinals OL