Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 16

 

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 16. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

 

Week 16 Bye Week: None

 

DL Rankings – Week 16

1. Cowboys
2. Steelers
3. Jets
4. Eagles
5. Browns
6. 49ers – DT Arik Armstead suffered a knee injury two weeks ago against the Eagles that will likely keep him out for the third game in a row. DT Javon Hargrave missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday.
7. Chiefs
8. Packers
9. Giants
10. Titans – DT Jeffery Simmons is expected to miss his third consecutive game due to a right knee injury.
11. Ravens
12. Jaguars
13. Colts
14. Texans
15. Seahawks
16. Rams
17. Raiders
18. Chargers
19. Bengals
20. Panthers
21. Bills
22. Commanders
23. Dolphins
24. Vikings – DT Harrison Phillips missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury.
25. Bucs
26. Broncos
27. Lions
28. Bears
29. Patriots
30. Saints
31. Falcons
32. Cardinals

 

OL Rankings – Week 16

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Chiefs – LT Donovan Smith returned to practice this week after missing the last two games with an injury.
4. Bucs
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith (back) and Zack Martin (quad) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
7. Ravens – LT Ronnie Stanley is in the concussion protocol with his status up in the air this week.
8. Colts – RT Braden Smith remains out with a knee injury.
9. Bengals
10. Bills
11. Falcons
12. Texans
13. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
14. Browns
15. Seahawks
16. Rams
17. Vikings – RT Brian O’Neill was out last week with an injury and didn’t practice this Wednesday or Thursday.
18. Packers
19. Broncos
20. Bears
21. Jaguars – LT Cam Robinson is on injured reserve with a knee injury.
22. Saints
23. Patriots
24. Cardinals
25. Dolphins – C Connor Williams is out for the year with a torn ACL.
26. Giants
27. Raiders
28. Commanders
29. Steelers
30. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is out for the season with an MCL injury.
31. Jets
32. Titans – C Aaron Brewer missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury.

 

Biggest Week 16 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Jets DL (3rd) > Commanders OL (28th)
2. Eagles DL (4th) > Giants OL (26th)
3. Packers DL (8th) > Panthers OL (30th)
4. Chiefs DL (7th) > Raiders OL (27th)
5. Seahawks DL (15th) > Titans OL (32nd)

 

Biggest Week 16 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Colts OL (8th) > Falcons DL (31st)
2. Lions OL (2nd) > Vikings DL (24th)

 

DL > OL

 

1. Jets DL > Commanders OL

Key matchups: Edge rusher Bryce Huff vs. RT Andrew Wylie, DT Quinnen Williams vs. LG Chris Paul

Notes: The Jets’ DL ranks 16th in pass-rush win rate, second in pressure percentage, and third in QB hurry percentage. The Commanders’ OL ranks 17th in pass-block win rate, 26th in QB hits given up, and 29th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

Washington’s shaky performance as pass protectors is due in large part to their QB Sam Howell’s poor pocket presence that invites pressures and sacks, but they also have multiple “weak link” starters that can be exposed against high-end competition. New York’s top pass rushers align opposite these two Washington blockers with Quinnen Williams set to face LG Chris Paul and edge rusher Bryce Huff opposite of RT Andrew Wylie. Both Paul and Wylie lack the movement skills or technique to hold up in isolated situations against these two, plus the Jets have an array of complementary rushers around them to win their fair share of matchups while capitalizing on the lack of attention in their direction.

 

2. Eagles DL > Giants OL