Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 17

 

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 17. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

 

Week 17 Bye Week: None

 

DL Rankings – Week 17

1. Cowboys
2. Steelers
3. Jets
4. Eagles
5. Browns
6. 49ers – DT Arik Armstead suffered a knee injury three weeks ago against the Eagles that will likely keep him out for the fourth game in a row. The team signed DT Sebastian Joseph-Day after he was released from the Chargers.
7. Chiefs
8. Packers
9. Giants
10. Titans – DT Jeffery Simmons is expected to miss his third consecutive game due to a right knee injury.
11. Ravens
12. Jaguars
13. Colts
14. Texans
15. Seahawks
16. Rams
17. Raiders
18. Chargers
19. Bengals
20. Panthers
21. Bills
22. Commanders
23. Dolphins
24. Vikings
25. Bucs
26. Broncos
27. Lions
28. Bears
29. Patriots
30. Saints
31. Falcons
32. Cardinals

 

OL Rankings – Week 17

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Chiefs
4. Bucs
5. 49ers – LG Aaron Banks missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with injury.
6. Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith (back) missed practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s game.
7. Ravens
8. Colts
9. Bengals
10. Bills
11. Falcons
12. Texans
13. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
14. Browns
15. Rams
16. Packers
17. Broncos
18. Seahawks
19. Vikings
20. Bears
21. Jaguars – LT Cam Robinson is on injured reserve with a knee injury.
22. Saints
23. Patriots
24. Cardinals
25. Dolphins – C Connor Williams is out for the year with a torn ACL.
26. Giants
27. Raiders
28. Commanders
29. Steelers
30. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is out for the season with an MCL injury.
31. Jets
32. Titans

 

Biggest Week 17 DL > OL Mismatches

1. 49ers DL (6th) > Commanders OL (28th)
2. Eagles DL (4th) > Cardinals OL (24th)
3. Steelers DL (2nd) > Seahawks OL (18th)
4. Ravens DL (11th) > Dolphins OL (25th)
5. Packers DL (8th) > Vikings OL (19th)

 

Biggest Week 17 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Eagles OL (1st) > Cardinals DL (32nd)
2. Bucs OL (4th) > Saints DL (30th)

 

DL > OL

 

1. 49ers DL > Commanders OL

Key matchups: Edge rusher Nick Bosa vs. RT Andrew Wylie, DT Javon Hargrave vs. LG Chris Paul

Notes: The 49ers’ DL ranks 10th in pass-rush win rate, 11th in QB knockdown percentage, and 13th in sacks per pass attempt. The Commanders OL ranks 14th in pass-block win rate, 25th in QB hits given up, and 28th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

The 49ers defensive line added a solid reinforcement with the signing of recently released DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, helping to mitigate the absence of Arik Armstead who appears to be out for the fourth game in a row due to a knee injury. Javon Hargrave spearheads the interior pass-rush as a very good rusher and two capable sidekicks in Javon Kinlaw and Joseph-Day, plus the team has used Nick Bosa and Chase Young reduced inside more in recent weeks. With an array of different fronts, stunts and line games the 49ers pass-rush has legit rushers coming from all angles on a weekly basis and the Commanders subpar line and QB play are not equipped to slow them down this week. Expect Bosa to dominate his matchup with RT Andrew Wylie and Hargrave to give LG Chris Paul fits with his quickness, natural leverage and power.

 

2. Eagles DL > Cardinals OL