Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 17

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 17. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 17 Bye Week: None

DL Rankings – Week 17

1. Steelers
2. Eagles
3. Seahawks
4. Broncos
5. Texans
6. Rams
7. Chiefs
8. Cowboys – DE DeMarcus Lawrence is still not practicing.
9. 49ers
10. Browns
11. Ravens
12. Vikings
13. Jets
14. Bills
15. Lions
16. Colts
17. Packers
18. Bucs
19. Saints
20. Chargers
21. Dolphins
22. Commanders
23. Bears
24. Falcons
25. Jaguars
26. Titans
27. Bengals
28. Giants – NT Dexter Lawrence remains out with an injury.
29. Patriots
30. Raiders
31. Panthers
32. Cardinals

OL Rankings – Week 17

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Bucs
4. Bills
5. Broncos
6. Chargers
7. Ravens
8. Rams – RT Rob Havenstein injured his shoulder in practice on Wednesday and is questionable to play on Saturday against the Cardinals.
9. Chiefs
10. Packers
11. Falcons
12. Vikings
13. Commanders
14. Jets
15. Steelers
16. Colts
17. Jaguars
18. Panthers – RT Taylor Moton didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday with a knee injury and LG Damien Lewis missed practice Thursday with an illness/ankle injury.
19. Cowboys
20. Raiders
21. Browns
22. Cardinals – LT Paris Johnson is on injured reserve.
23. Texans
24. 49ers
25. Dolphins
26. Seahawks
27. Bengals
28. Bears
29. Saints
30. Titans
31. Patriots – C Ben Brown is in concussion protocol, which clears the way for Cole Strange to make his first start of the season and first career start at center.
32. Giants

Biggest Week 17 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Broncos DL (4th) > Bengals OL (27th)
2. Rams DL (6th) > Cardinals OL (22nd)
3. Eagles DL (2nd) > Cowboys OL (19th)
4. Colts DL (16th) > Giants OL (32nd)
5. Chargers DL (20th) > Patriots OL (31st)

Biggest Week 17 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Bucs OL (3rd) > Panthers DL (31st)

DL > OL

1. Broncos DL > Bengals OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Nik Bonitto & Jonathon Cooper vs. OTs Orlando Brown Jr. & Amarius Mims, DTs Zach Allen & John Franklin-Myers vs. Bengals interior trio

Notes: The Broncos’ DL ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate, third in pressure percentage, and third in sacks per pass attempt. The Bengals’ OL ranks 30th in pass-block win rate, 29th in QB hits given up, and 16th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

The Bengals are set to get Orlando Brown Jr. back at left tackle this week after a multi-game absence, which will allow Cody Ford to kick inside to left guard after filling in at tackle over that span. This will give the line a boost but doesn’t mask the lingering sluggishness and mediocre pass-protecting ability of the interior trio that the Broncos’ dizzying blend of exotic pressure packages and disruptive interior rushers can exploit in a major way. Led by Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers, this duo is one of the most underrated, lethal pairings in the league, while edge rushers Nik Bonitto & Jonathon Cooper will provide plenty of challenges for the Bengals’ giant tackles in Brown and rookie Amarius Mims due to their twitched-up, speed-oriented styles.

2. Rams DL > Cardinals OL