Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 3

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 3. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 3 Bye Week: None

DL Rankings – Week 3

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Giants
4. Rams
5. Seahawks
6. Packers
7. Vikings
8. Steelers
9. Browns
10. Eagles
11. Jets
12. Chiefs
13. Patriots
14. 49ers
15. Colts
16. Lions
17. Titans
18. Jaguars
19. Ravens
20. Bucs – DT Calijah Kancey is out for the year with a torn pec.
21. Bills – DT Ed Oliver remains out of practice with a foot injury after missing Week 2.
22. Dolphins
23. Raiders
24. Cardinals
25. Cowboys – The team signed free-agent edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney.
26. Commanders
27. Bengals
28. Bears
29. Saints – DE Chase Young hasn’t played yet this season and sat out Wednesday’s practice with a recurring calf injury.
30. Falcons
31. Chargers – DE Khalil Mack is in short-term injured reserve with an elbow injury until at least Week 7.
32. Panthers

OL Rankings – Week 3

1. Eagles
2. Bills
3. Broncos
4. Colts
5. Vikings – LT Christian Darrisaw is expected to make his season debut in Week 3.
6. Lions
7. Commanders
8. Packers
9. Chiefs
10. Bears
11. Ravens
12. Jets
13. Rams – LG Steve Avila missed practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury.
14. Steelers
15. 49ers
16. Cardinals
17. Browns – LG Joel Bitonio missed practice on Wednesday with a back injury and is expected to miss Thursday, although he has said he expects to still play this week.
18. Falcons
19. Titans – RT JC Latham missed practice on Wednesday due to a hip injury suffered in Week 1 that also kept him out of Week 2.
20. Cowboys – C Cooper Beebe suffered an ankle injury that will keep him out for 6-8 weeks.
21. Patriots
22. Chargers
23. Jaguars
24. Bucs – LT Tristan Wirfs is expected to make his season debut in Week 4 against the Eagles. Luke Goedeke suffered a foot injury that landed him on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 7. RG Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.
25. Saints – RT Taliese Fuaga missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury and is also dealing with a knee injury. LG Dillon Radunz missed both days of practice with a toe injury. OL Trevor Penning returned to practice for the first time this season.
26. Giants – LT Andrew Thomas is expected to make his season debut in Week 3.
27. Panthers – RG Robert Hunt went down in Week 2 with a season-ending torn biceps injury. C Austin Corbett is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 7 with an MCL injury.
28. Seahawks
29. Bengals
30. Raiders
31. Dolphins – RG James Daniels is on short-term I.R. with a pec injury. RT Austin Jackson is likely out this week with a toe injury.
32. Texans

Biggest Week 3 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Vikings DL (7th) > Bengals OL (29th)
2. Texans DL (1st) > Jaguars OL (24th)
3. Broncos DL (2nd) > Chargers OL (23rd)
4. Seahawks DL (5th) > Saints OL (25th)
5. Chiefs DL (12th) > Giants OL (26th)
6. Jets DL (11th) > Bucs OL (24th)

Biggest Week 3 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Broncos OL (3rd) > Chargers DL (31st)

DL > OL

1. Vikings DL > Bengals OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Dallas Turner vs. RT Amarius Mims, DTs Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen vs. OGs Dylan Fairchild & Dalton Risner

Notes: The Vikings’ DL ranks third in pressure percentage, 10th in sacks per pass attempt, and 27th in pass-rush win rate. The Bengals’ OL ranks 27th in pass-block win rate, 20th in sacks per pass attempt given up, and 29th in pressure percentage given up.

Minnesota’s defensive line had a respectable 11 pressures last week against the Falcons but was unable to slow down a run-heavy approach. This week, they are facing a middling Bengals run game and defanged passing game without QB Joe Burrow in the lineup. Along with defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ unique ability to make life miserable for inexperienced and/or lesser quarterbacks through adept scheming, this Vikings front has big-time advantages on an individual level, led by Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen against a rookie left guard in Dylan Fairchild and right guard Dalton Risner, who was signed off of the street just before the season kicked off. There are too many easy-to-spot opportunities for this Vikings pass rush to generate pressure to go elsewhere for the top spot in Week 3.