Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 5

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 5. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 5 Bye Week: Falcons, Packers, Bears, Steelers

DL Rankings – Week 5

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Giants – DT Dexter Lawrence missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to an illness.
4. Rams
5. Seahawks
6. Packers
7. Vikings
8. Steelers – Edge rusher Alex Highsmith remains out of practice with an ankle injury.
9. Browns
10. Jets
11. Chiefs
12. Lions – DT Alim McNeil’s 21-day practice window opened this week with him returning to practice.
13. Eagles – Edge rusher Nolan Smith was placed on short-term injured reserve, keeping him out until at least Week 8.
14. Colts
15. Jaguars
16. Titans – DT T’Vondre Sweat is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 8.
17. Bills
18. Commanders
19. Patriots – DT Milton Williams missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury.
20. Bucs – DT Calijah Kancey is out for the year with a torn pec.
21. Dolphins
22. Cardinals
23. 49ers – DE Nick Bosa suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 3.
24. Raiders
25. Bengals
26. Ravens – DT Nnamdi Madubuike is out for the season with a neck injury.
27. Cowboys
28. Falcons
29. Bears
30. Chargers – DE Khalil Mack is on short-term injured reserve with an elbow injury until at least Week 7.
31. Saints – DE Chase Young hasn’t played yet this season and sat out practice Wednesday and Thursday with a recurring calf injury.
32. Panthers

OL Rankings – Week 5

1. Eagles
2. Bills
3. Broncos
4. Lions
5. Colts
6. Commanders – RG Sam Cosmi’s 21-day practice window was opened with him making his return to the field on Wednesday for the first time since tearing his ACL in January.
7. Chiefs
8. Jets
9. Rams
10. Bears
11. Steelers
12. Falcons
13. Ravens
14. 49ers
15. Cardinals
16. Packers
17. Jaguars
18. Patriots
19. Seahawks
20. Bucs – Luke Goedeke suffered a foot injury that landed him on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 7. RG Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.
21. Browns – LT Dawand Jones suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 3.
22. Titans – RT JC Latham remains out of practice with a hip injury that has kept him out since Week 1.
23. Saints – RG Cesar Ruiz is out this week with an injury. OG Dillon Radunz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a toe injury.
24. Giants
25. Panthers – RG Robert Hunt went down in Week 2 with a season-ending torn biceps injury. C Austin Corbett is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 7 with an MCL injury.
26. Cowboys – C Cooper Beebe suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 that will keep him out for 6-8 weeks. RG Tyler Booker suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and will be out for 4-6 weeks. LT Tyler Guyton and LG Tyler Smith missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with injuries.
27. Dolphins – RG James Daniels is on short-term I.R. with a pec injury. RT Austin Jackson is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 6 with a toe injury.
28. Bengals
29. Chargers – LT Joe Alt is doubtful this week due to a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 4.
30. Raiders – LT Kolton Miller was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 4 and won’t return until at least Week 9.
31. Texans
32. Vikings – LG Donovan Jackson had wrist surgery that will keep him out until at least Week 8. C Ryan Kelly (concussion) and RT Brian O’Neill (knee) both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with injuries. LT Christian Darrisaw missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practice due to “rest.”

Biggest Week 5 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Browns DL (9th) > Vikings OL (32nd)
2. Giants DL (3rd) > Saints (24th)
3. Colts DL (14th) > Raiders OL (30th)
4. Jets DL (10th) > Cowboys OL (26th)
5. Commanders DL (18th) > Chargers OL (29th)

Biggest Week 5 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Commanders OL (6th) > Chargers DL (30th)
2. Lions OL (4th) > Bengals DL (25th)

DL > OL

1. Browns DL > Vikings OL

Key matchups: Edge rusher Myles Garrett vs. RT Justin Skule/Walter Rouse, DTs Maliek Collins and Mason Graham vs. LG/C Joe Huber, Blake Brandel or Henry Byrd

Notes: The Browns’ DL ranks first in pass-rush win rate, ninth in pressure percentage, and fourth in sacks per pass attempt. DE Myles Garrett ranks 10th in True Pressure Rate and first in True Sack Rate. DT Maliek Collins ranks fifth among interior rushers in fewest pass-rush snaps per high-quality (1v1 win) pressure. The Vikings’ OL ranks 15th in pass-block win rate, 29th in pressure percentage given up, and 32nd in sacks per pass attempt given up. LT Christian Darrisaw, C Ryan Kelly, and RT Brian O’Neill didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Darrisaw is expected to play, while Kelly and O’Neill are questionable at best.

The Vikings’ line is decimated by injuries and could be without three starters this week (LG/C/RT). LG Donovan Jackson is for sure out, while C Ryan Kelly and RT Brian O’Neill are unlikely to play. The Browns’ defensive line has been outstanding the last few weeks with Myles Garrett continuing to play like the best defensive player in football. Along with a potent interior combination of Maliek Collins and Mason Graham, the unit has finally provided juice around Garrett. Given the Vikings’ injuries to their line with backup QB Carson Wentz still at the helm, there are major concerns in their ability to pass protect in this game that make this an easy choice for the top mismatch of the week.

2. Giants DL > Saints OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and Kayvon Thibodeaux vs. OTs Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga, DT Dexter Lawrence vs. RG Torricelli Simpkins III

Notes: The Giants’ DL ranks 17th in pass-rush win rate, 12th in pressure percentage, and 20th in sacks per pass attempt. DT Dexter Lawrence missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to an illness. Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and Kayvon Thibodeaux rank