Value Report: Farmers Insurance Open

Scottie Scheffler proved 75% of the field wrong at the American Express, winning in dominant fashion and being optimal despite the $14,200 price tag. The question of the week was: Did you pair Scottie with the right value plays? And that is likely to be the meta of the entire 2026 season. I’ve run out of ways to describe how unbelievable his game is, and even with all of the compelling reasons why it made sense to fade him at the American Express, Scheffler proved how he can still separate, even at a course that doesn’t test his best skills. The puzzle of how high his price goes and how ownership will correlate with it makes me incredibly excited for what’s to come this year, as it makes the Value Report even more relevant for Scheffler weeks!

I had landed on just six golfers on the peculiar American Express, and it was middling at best on the week. Sahith Theegala was the smash of the group, rocketing up the leaderboard on Sunday for his first top-10 finish since 2024. He and Will Zalatoris, who was my flag plant last week, both have injury-impacted rounds over the past year, so it’s tough to distinguish their true baselines, which gives us a continued opportunity to be early on their rebounds. Johnny Keefer was quite steady in his T27 finish, but what I didn’t love was how little he scored en route to that. He actually might be one to target more at difficult courses, as his around-the-green game sets him up for quite a few par saves. Compare his T27 to a 69th for Adrien Dumont de Chassart, while they only had 1.5 fantasy points separating them. At their prices and results, both made Scottie Scheffler lineups work and were profitable pieces, while the likes of Seamus Power, despite making the cut, Daniel Brown, and Kensei Hirata had zero returns. There always seems to be volatility in early starts for the new players coming from the Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour, so I won’t put too much stock in what hopefully is a blip on the radar for Brown and Hirata.

Turning the page to the Farmers Insurance Open, we get one of my favorite weeks of the season at Torrey Pines. The golf course gets quite a bit of pushback from an architecture standpoint, but what I love about Torrey Pines is that we have really been able to develop the type of player who shines here. The rough is rarely penal, so it sets up to be a bombers’ paradise, especially at the North Course in the one round there. But for those that can’t keep up in distance, it really comes down to how often you can escape with par, and that was exactly what Harris English did last year with a winning score of -9. There’s a drastic shift in the pricing landscape as well with no Scottie Scheffler, so the value range will take on less ownership this week, too. It sets us up to find a few diamonds in the rough to ride to a big week at the Farmers!

HaoTong Li, $7,300 – It’s been a quick impression for HaoTong Li in his first two starts as a PGA Tour rookie, with last week’s T8 at the American Express being incredibly impressive.