Value Report: Rocket Classic

Well, well, well, Jackson Koivun in just his third professional start lives up to every bit of hype he has been getting by dominating the field at the 3M Open! It’s so good to see, as it was easy to question his transition to the PGA Tour after a missed cut in his pro debut at obscene levels of ownership at the John Deere Classic. But to do it in this fashion was quite cool. Especially considering it was the world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, on his heels come the back nine on Sunday, and outside of chunking a drive on 18, I’m not sure Koivun missed a single shot all round. His ownership was likely right around where it should have been, given his odds, so I’m not kicking myself for having a massive position in either direction. But as a golf fan, it’s just awesome to see him arrive in such style!

Well, a bit of regression for the Value Report, as we had five of our seven selections miss the weekend, leaving 6/6 rates quite thin. I loved the strategy angle of playing this range of golfers without Scheffler, which ended up being the winning iteration with Koivun + a balanced build. Clearly Davis Chatfield was the best play of the bunch, as he was in the winning FGWC lineup too this past week, and proved that the uber accuracy + irons profile is quite safe with all of the danger looming at TPC Twin Cities. I’m already lining him up again for the Wyndham Championship, so I’m hoping that he has a middling performance here in Detroit. Beyond that, A.J. Ewart was the only other decent play, and he was quite frustrating, as he just couldn’t avoid the big misses off the tee despite the continued strong putting and approach play. For the laundry list of missed cuts, I’d say Stephan Jaeger was most frustrating, doing his usual thing of looking elite on a few-hole stretch before blowing it up with an errant tee shot. Aaron Wise was the most egregious of the bunch, though, as he got pushed up in ownership as the public wanted to jump back on his recent-form comeback. The duo of David Lipsky and Cam Davis just had absolutely zero going for them at all, while amateur Ryder Cowan wasn’t as bad as it seemed, only missing the cut by two shots. I’ll keep an eye out still for him if we get another start or two to round out the summer.

But it’s on to Detroit, one of my sneaky favorite weeks of the year. We hit Aldrich Potgieter for a flag-plant win from the 2025 Value Report. You’ll be reading more about him soon, but we had a bomber’s paradise play out on the leaderboard last year, and I’d like to go dipping in the same pond for this year’s edition. Of course, there will be a lot of talk about the renovation and losing the easy par 5s. However, the total number of strokes should play out almost identically, and long par 4s will see an uptick in longer iron play but still provide an advantage to the bombers, as they were already going for those greens in two anyway. I’d expect the field to lean into distance more than last year, but course-fit data inputs aren’t going to separate too much, which has me excited for the slate. As you’ll see below, though, I won’t play it only that direction, and because of pricing, there will definitely be a lot of under-owned, well-projected plays in the $7K range. I’m looking forward to seeing the new edition here in Detroit. Let’s hope for the same success we had in 2025!

Aldrich Potgieter/Johnny Keefer, $7,300 & $7,400 – I’m trying something new out here for a combo selection, as I view both Aldrich Potgieter and Johnny Keefer as incredibly similar for this week in Detroit. Both players are incredibly boom or bust while also sneaking their way into public popularity more often than others who are priced in this range. However, that trendiness tends to come from recent form, and both are fresh off missed cuts at last week’s 3M Open. What I found really interesting, though, was the route they took on their missed cuts, which consisted of horrendous Thursdays followed by near-comeback Fridays where Potgieter was -6 and Keefer was -5. This is their game in a nutshell, and with both of them so reliant on off-the-tee momentum, Detroit Golf Club is the perfect place where they can let it rip, evidenced by Potgieter’s win here last year. The numbers don’t necessarily point to the direction of only bombers can succeed, but this is the course where an elite driving week of both distance and accuracy can really separate in the amount of birdie looks you can generate. If the Rocket Classic was the week after the Scottish, Keefer would for sure be chalk, as would Potgieter if it was following the RBC Canadian Open. But now that the dust has settled, we can sneak these two by in the single digits.