Value Report: The American Express

Primetime golf in Hawaii to kick off 2026 was such a beautiful way to start the season. Massive kudos to Chris Gotterup, whose aura continues to get matched by his performance, and there’s surely more to come from one of the most fun golfers in this state of the game. From a leaderboard standpoint, outside of Robert MacIntyre, there wasn’t a whole lot of success from the high-priced players, which led to a bit more success with balanced lineup structures. Not a single lineup in the top 20 of the flagship contest had double-tapped the $10K range or the $6K range, which could be a different story when we have a star-studded field like this week’s American Express.

Before we dive into next week’s tournament, I always want to spend time looking back on the performance from the previous week’s Value Report. For the Sony Open, the overall results were quite lackluster. Five out of the eight selections did make it to the weekend, but just one pushed through for a top-25 finish. My goal is for each selection to be under 10% owned, which came in on the nose, as Mac Meissner was just under the limit. I was a bit surprised at the steam on Hao-Tong Li, but he did seem quite steady throughout the week. The best performance came from Kensei Hirata at less than 1% owned, showing promise on his skill set matching up at the Sony Open. For him, though, it was more of limiting the bogies than a volatile scorecard, which Meissner had, as he far outscored his finishing position. Zac Blair and Kota Kaneko did minimal on the weekend despite looking poised for runs, so there weren’t too many overall positives. Of the three MCs, Chandler Blanchet was by far the most disappointing, as he never looked the part. I’m willing to give early forgiveness for the rookies, though, as we are likely to get them at lower ownership down the road. Without substantial sample sizes on the PGA Tour, we continue to shape up which style of courses they should thrive on.

As I take great pride in finding the diamonds in the rough, this week’s American Express was a reminder that quantity isn’t as important as quality, so we’ve landed on six golfers for the Value Report. What heightens the volatility at the Amex is a three-course rotation that isn’t necessarily screaming a certain player fit. And add in the Pro-Am portion, which makes the setup incredibly easy for the best in the world. This has resulted in winning scores deep in the -20s, as well as many long shots coming through, which makes the sub-$7,500 range even more enticing. We also have our first go with Scottie Scheffler in 2026, and being priced at $14,200 forces you into some very interesting roster construction. The event can be a tilting one, but it comes with plenty of prize pools to take down a big event early in the year!